weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MCD!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Why do we want weak anvil winds? I was wondering the same. I remain unimpressed except for western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 headed to bantam lake to a cottage that was destroyed in 89 maybe itll be good luck for some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Starting to remove that SB CIN across northern CT but still have CIN in the mixed-layer. Deep layer shear has increased to 35 knots in CT though. Also..noticing that llvl winds are NW...I thought they were supposed to be more SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 threat looks pretty meh for a lot of areas. What? Probably the best threat since June 1 of last year for a lot of places lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Confidence seems fairly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What? Probably the best threat since June 1 of last year for a lot of places lol He's a troll...don't pay him mind. Anyway...it does look decent, though certainly not close to June 1st, 2011 levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Prob of a watch is only 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 He's a troll...don't pay him mind. Anyway...it does look decent, though certainly not close to June 1st, 2011 levels. Nowhere near that one of the big differences is temperatures. I remember driving through ORH county and it was 90-something before those storms. Incredible to see the cirrus from the supercells that day reaching from springfield to where I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Prob of a watch is only 40% I feel like widespread severe isn't likely, but where it does occur it might be impressive. agree with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 He's a troll...don't pay him mind. Anyway...it does look decent, though certainly not close to June 1st, 2011 levels. Well of course but wasn't the rest of svr season pretty tame after that last summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SUMMARY...POORLY ORGANIZED MCS OVER CNTRL NY MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ESEWD. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON 15Z WV IMAGERY OVER W CNTRL NY APPEARS TO HAVE EMANATED FROM SRN MN 24 HRS AGO. THE SUBTLE WAVE HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURRENTLY ELEVATED COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ORIENTED ACROSS CNTRL NY. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO APPROXIMATELY BUFFALO...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A BROADER ERN UPPER RIDGE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F AND A LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F/ WILL ERODE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 17-18Z PERIOD...WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN DMGG WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING REFLECTS AN EWD ADVECTION OF THE EML...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS AND SEMI-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 He's a troll...don't pay him mind. Anyway...it does look decent, though certainly not close to June 1st, 2011 levels. the MCS is decaying as it runs into CIN and building heights. The warmfront is also basically stalled with the greatest shear well to its north and the greatest CAPE displaced well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I feel like widespread severe isn't likely, but where it does occur it might be impressive. agree with that? 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 500mb heights have been building but they are supposed to fall again later this afternoon and that's when the fun could pop. LEt this MCS die out and leave some outflow boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 the MCS is decaying as it runs into CIN and building heights. The warmfront is also basically stalled with the greatest shear well to its north and the greatest CAPE displaced well to the south. Keep in mind the thermodynamic environment at 11 a.m. isn't going to persist all day... that CIN is being eliminated as the boundary layer warms and moisture pools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Keep in mind the thermodynamic environment at 11 a.m. isn't going to persist all day... that CIN is being eliminated as the boundary layer warms and moisture pools. CIN is actually being eliminated a little quicker than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 500mb heights have been building but they are supposed to fall again later this afternoon and that's when the fun could pop. LEt this MCS die out and leave some outflow boundaries. Things really are putrid with the wind directions for the eastern half of sne. hate the ocean on days like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Things really are putrid with the wind directions for the eastern half of sne. hate the ocean on days like this What's actually going to screw you out in eastern Mass is the fact that you'll be on the other side of the warm front. On days when you have really steep mid-level lapse rates in place along with high dews/instability you can get severe down to the coast and the sea-breeze doesn't have as strong of an influence as it normally does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 the MCS is decaying as it runs into CIN and building heights. The warmfront is also basically stalled with the greatest shear well to its north and the greatest CAPE displaced well to the south. MCSs almost always decay around this time no matter what the environment....it throws out boundaries for convection later...when you actually want it to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What's actually going to screw you out in eastern Mass is the fact that you'll be on the other side of the warm front. On days when you have really steep mid-level lapse rates in place along with high dews/instability you can get severe down to the coast and the sea-breeze doesn't have as strong of an influence as it normally does. IDK- there is just never a chance in this setup. I mean I think I get your point, but even if we are on the other side of the warm front, the sea breeze will destroy any threat. you know this though, i think you were just stressing the importance of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 IDK- there is just never a chance in this setup. I mean I think I get your point, but even if we are on the other side of the warm front, the sea breeze will destroy any threat. you know this though, i think you were just stressing the importance of the warm front. I see what you're saying. Can't rule out something later on tonight like elevated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I see what you're saying. Can't rule out something later on tonight like elevated convection. It really would be a laugh if the cap held on/not enough lift and nothing fired today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It really would be a laugh if the cap held on/not enough lift and nothing fired today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 ALY was able to fix the issue with the upper air equipment, and we'll get a 17z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 ALY was able to fix the issue with the upper air equipment, and we'll get a 17z sounding. SWEET!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 13z HRRR doesn't get any action in here until after 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MCS taking a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 1630 still 2/15/15 Still no 10 tor for Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SWEET!!! did you leave yyet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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