HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wouldn't there be a diurnal weakening, also? Yes, there will be that too but that isn't always the case if there is something going on to keep a gradient going. I don't think the convection in NY is quite sufficient, only making a dent in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yes, there will be that too but that isn't always the case if there is something going on to keep a gradient going. I don't think the convection in NY is quite sufficient, only making a dent in the mid levels. yeah, it's kind of meh MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice MUcape axis just to the west of CT with values approaching 2000 J/KG already...the MCS could start to dive more ESE soon and perhaps ride along this axis. Good news though is MCS maintenance is pretty meh so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice MUcape axis just to the west of CT with values approaching 2000 J/KG already...the MCS could start to dive more ESE soon and perhaps ride along this axis. Good news though is MCS maintenance is pretty meh so we'll see The problem is the MCS maintenance plot uses two wind variables and doesn't account for the future per se. In our case that may be important because the thermodynamic variables of the MCS maintenance are certainly going to improve across NY and CT. Also, the MCC is embedded within a 30-35 knot bulk effective band. It is quite possible these storms continue to develop and this is the source for today's severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 One thing's for sure--severe predictions are much more short-fused than the other events we follow. Frankly, given my pathetic knowledge base, I can follow only a little of what you guys are talking about (e.g., what is RAP?) Here's hoping we can all get some time of storminess over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 First SVR for Cortland Co NY. This will be our fun for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The problem is the MCS maintenance plot uses two wind variables and doesn't account for the future per se. In our case that may be important because the thermodynamic variables of the MCS maintenance are certainly going to improve across NY and CT. Also, the MCC is embedded within a 30-35 knot bulk effective band. It is quite possible these storms continue to develop and this is the source for today's severe weather. Ahh I did not know that...good to know. Well hopefully that stuff can wait to get here until just past peak heating so we can have maximized instability. WArning out of BGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The -12c h5 pocket / lapse rate maxima near the apex of the h5 ridge has my interest with a bit of a residual LLJ there. Definitely an unusual placement but this is why we have to wait to see how the previous day's convection unfolds. The good thing about all this ridging is that the anvil level winds are weak as hell. Yes. Was going to post that earlier lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well it seems that the biggest threat is south of Albany. Berkshires, N CT, W Mass, Hudson Valley. Looks like teh best juxtaposition of shear and CAPE will exist in this area with surface based convection already firing northwest of Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 One thing's for sure--severe predictions are much more short-fused than the other events we follow. Frankly, given my pathetic knowledge base, I can follow only a little of what you guys are talking about (e.g., what is RAP?) Here's hoping we can all get some time of storminess over the next day or so. The "RAP" has replaced the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Interesting little twist to the radar returns entering northern Oneida County, NY. I wonder if this is an artifact or an embedded MCV feature. Considering the subtlety of features today, this could play a factor in the forcing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=RUC&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE One thing's for sure--severe predictions are much more short-fused than the other events we follow. Frankly, given my pathetic knowledge base, I can follow only a little of what you guys are talking about (e.g., what is RAP?) Here's hoping we can all get some time of storminess over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 One thing's for sure--severe predictions are much more short-fused than the other events we follow. Frankly, given my pathetic knowledge base, I can follow only a little of what you guys are talking about (e.g., what is RAP?) Here's hoping we can all get some time of storminess over the next day or so. Rapid refresh model...it took over the RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Rapid refresh model...it took over the RUC THanks, Paul. Missed that change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Dare I say things appear to be breaking in the" right" direction for SNE severe for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 there was some 65dbz returns in that severe cell for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Already nearing 1500 J/KG of SBcape across extreme western CT...LI's of -7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 great now there will be no storms at all Dare I say things appear to be breaking in the" right" direction for SNE severe for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Ryan, You think BDL could be a good spot to go to? Any good spots in Litchfield county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah today is shaping up to be good.. Are you staying home today? Already nearing 1500 J/KG of SBcape across extreme western CT...LI's of -7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Don't jinx it, Kevin! How was the race? See race thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah today is shaping up to be good.. Are you staying home today? We'll end up going somewhere...maybe BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I would imagine we should see an MCD soon with a watch close to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That should be a good spot I would think... goodluck today We'll end up going somewhere...maybe BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That should be a good spot I would think... goodluck today Thanks! I love going there b/c the view is pretty amazing and traffic is non-existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Why do we want weak anvil winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Cluster is moving through an area with some decent CIN so we'll see if that leads to the cluster weakening...at least the cluster will work to erode some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 well, i know my area on the CP of MA won't get any storms today...but if anything interesting enters MA i may take a drive out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 threat looks pretty meh for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 40's fog and sleet here on the coast of the irish riviera in Marshvegas. No love for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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