CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 So all in all not a surprise. A convoluted severe threat for SNE lol Yeah I know...lol. But you know what I mean. This complex moves south and then a stronger wrly push or instability push develops storms but further east than the previous complex. I can't look at it in depth like you guys thanks to phone, but there are some things going for it for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There is actually a little meso high feature in southern NH which is providing a southward push to the warm front. The early visible shows fog/stratus dropping south, and ORE had the dewpoint drop from 61 to 56 as a light north wind picked up. Acting more like a backdoor cold front right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah I was wondering if stuff fires behind it and becomes an evening threat. Seems like it could happen. I think there could be another MCS that coalesces this evening in eastern NY/WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Was there an MCS in southern PA yesterday afternoon? I was at work...I noticed all the severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think there could be another MCS that coalesces this evening in eastern NY/WNE. Or something in nne moving sse? Like this morning, it's tough to see how little mid level nuances will fire off storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Or something in nne moving sse? Like this morning, it's tough to see how little mid level nuances will fire off storms. It's tough to say. I mean it appears that today is finally when we see shear and instability line up somewhat. The MCS's that have fired over the northeast and midwest have mostly been elevated and weak, well north of the surface based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Sun finally starting to poke through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There may be some pulse severe stuff this afternoon in WNY firing from a weak lake breeze that likely develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It's tough to say. I mean it appears that today is finally when we see shear and instability line up somewhat. The MCS's that have fired over the northeast and midwest have mostly been elevated and weak, well north of the surface based instability. really? the one in PA yesterday was quite strong: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 12z NAM has some impressive 0-3km EHI values and 0-3km helicity. Blows how llvl shear is so weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow it's muggy. 75/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 12z NAM has some impressive 0-3km EHI values and 0-3km helicity. Blows how llvl shear is so weak. How can there be impressive 0-3km helicity but low level shear blows??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 really? the one in PA yesterday was quite strong: http://www.spc.noaa..../yesterday.html yeah I didn't see that until this morning. There wasn't much shear down there at all lol...kinda strange it developed way down there. They did, however, have the best instability and low-level moisture. I think they were the only location yesterday that had 70 degree dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Equipment issue means no 12z ALB sounding sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 dew point up to 70 at HPN. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Equipment issue means no 12z ALB sounding sadly Must be getting some sort of a BD front, a cool dry breeze developed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 How can there be impressive 0-3km helicity but low level shear blows??? 0-1km blows b/c the low level shear blows. 0-3km is impressive mainly b/c of the good speed shear that takes place between low level and mid level winds...go from 10 knots in the BL to 15 knots at 850 to 25 knots at 800 to 30-35 knots at 700/500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Equipment issue means no 12z ALB sounding sadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 How can there be impressive 0-3km helicity but low level shear blows??? 0-1km and 0-2 helicity is low. The winds are very light below 2 km then increase in the 800-700mb layer, on the NAM at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There is actually a little meso high feature in southern NH which is providing a southward push to the warm front. The early visible shows fog/stratus dropping south, and ORE had the dewpoint drop from 61 to 56 as a light north wind picked up. Acting more like a backdoor cold front right now. Working outside a bit this morning - there was a noticable cool, dry breeze ~10mph from the NE - ENE over the past hour. Looking at a few of the local wunderground sites it coincided nicely with a slight rise in pressure cresting just before nine. KAFN with a dew of 49*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The -12c h5 pocket / lapse rate maxima near the apex of the h5 ridge has my interest with a bit of a residual LLJ there. Definitely an unusual placement but this is why we have to wait to see how the previous day's convection unfolds. The good thing about all this ridging is that the anvil level winds are weak as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow it's muggy. 75/72 Yikes! 68.6/58 here. Beautiful day. Seems touch and go for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The -12c h5 pocket / lapse rate maxima near the apex of the h5 ridge has my interest with a bit of a residual LLJ there. Definitely an unusual placement but this is why we have to wait to see how the previous day's convection unfolds. The good thing about all this ridging is that the anvil level winds are weak as hell. Interesting! RAP does show 30-35 knots at 925/850 just below that bubble and out ahead if it...I wonder if that can work into SNE...before storms can get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm wondering if there is actually a better chance of tornadoes tomorrow near the ALB area than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looks like the NAM isn't picking up on that LLJ max looking at 3HR 925/850 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Interesting! RAP does show 30-35 knots at 925/850 just below that bubble and out ahead if it...I wonder if that can work into SNE...before storms can get here? My worry is the ridge advection just sort of destroys it. I am not sure to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 My worry is the ridge advection just sort of destroys it. I am not sure to be honest. Wouldn't there be a diurnal weakening, also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 My worry is the ridge advection just sort of destroys it. I am not sure to be honest. This is where we really need a strengthening s/w trough. That's what you want to see to develop/sustain a solid LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 man, if the ridging had held on longer in the southeast, that Tuesday shortwave would be really impressive. Still looks decent, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 what about that tiny cluster that just came off lake ontario, any chance it holds together as it progresses eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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