CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I just saw that on satellite. Hmmm. Maybe debris clouds will stay west. I dunno it has quite an easterly component lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Oh I thought you were talking about the MCS heading into SYR. That may screw this whole thing up. Was nervous about that, will it weaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I dunno it has quite an easterly component lol I guess you'll have to see how it goes. I hate not having a lap top as much as an iPhone is great. I can't look at everything like I can with a lap top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I just want some thunderstorms. I don't have hope for severe weather in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too much worry. Those clouds will tend to break up as MCS weakens. All sys go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Oh I thought you were talking about the MCS heading into SYR. That may screw this whole thing up. That is concerning me. I think it's going to push that effective boundary southward, or at least stop it from advancing north. If the RAP is right, GFL would struggle to get back into the most favorable environment. The warm front is already south of the GYX CWA, and I don't like to early trends on getting a piece of warm sector up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too much worry. Those clouds will tend to break up as MCS weakens. All sys go I don't think the MCS weakens to be honest. I think we will see new convection develop ahead of it... and become more surface based. I think we're an hour or two early with it for SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That is concerning me. I think it's going to push that effective boundary southward, or at least stop it from advancing north. If the RAP is right, GFL would struggle to get back into the most favorable environment. The warm front is already south of the GYX CWA, and I don't like to early trends on getting a piece of warm sector up here. Agreed. It's going to be tough to get that boundary much farther north with the current way convection is developing. I think the whole severe threat is shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I don't think the MCS weakens to be honest. I think we will see new convection develop ahead of it... and become more surface based. I think we're an hour or two early with it for SNE though. Are you thinking a 4:00 ish timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 With the atmosphere rapidly destabilizing I doubt the MCS weakens, in fact that could be our action today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Appears, the slight risk, is being extended further SW into NYC area, Northern NJ, NE PA, on the SPC overview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I don't think the MCS weakens to be honest. I think we will see new convection develop ahead of it... and become more surface based. I think we're an hour or two early with it for SNE though. With wrly shear a little better there, I wonder If the eastern end will develop and push a little more ese or se. Basically trajectory for ern ny and wrn ct. However it won't take much to turn more SSE with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Agreed. It's going to be tough to get that boundary much farther north with the current way convection is developing. I think the whole severe threat is shifting south. I like your evolution of new convection developing off the MCS. In fact you have new updrafts firing along the southern periphery already. A few lightning strikes southwest of ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 New day 1 expands the slight risk for pretty much all of CT. Still 2%/15%/15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I like your evolution of new convection developing off the MCS. In fact you have new updrafts firing along the southern periphery already. A few lightning strikes southwest of ROC. Yeah just noticed it as well. While the actual cluester NW of SYR will likely diminish some I think we will get some suface based stuff to fire near ALB. Timing has sped up for sure and threat shifted south. SPC remains unimpressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good thing I didn't go north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 OSU' mentioned the layout a few day ago; we wondered if MCS production "check list" factors were present, and it was suggested the propagating right of the environmental flow should result. thanks for the shut out. I was hoping for something a bit more decent, but it appears this event had some issues with low-level moisture and the shear and lift was displaced from the areas that had decent MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good thing I didn't go north What did I tell you last night lol...ripper through weha while you were gettin nothing in gfl. Well Im going to honor some vets for a bit, see you guys later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah just noticed it as well. While the actual cluester NW of SYR will likely diminish some I think we will get some suface based stuff to fire near ALB. Timing has sped up for sure and threat shifted south. SPC remains unimpressed. Probably one of those things with sct cells or even a segment moving SSE from that area I suppose. Hopefully that MCS doesn't screw it up that much but you're right....the trajectory is right into SNE in terms of clouds or possible lapse rate modification? Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 whoa...SYR sounding is ridiculous this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah just noticed it as well. While the actual cluester NW of SYR will likely diminish some I think we will get some suface based stuff to fire near ALB. Timing has sped up for sure and threat shifted south. SPC remains unimpressed. Yeah, cloud tops are warming on the MCS. But dewpoints are starting to pool in the mid 60s to the southeast of it, so we should quickly destabilize on the southern fringes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 HRRR seems pretty far south fwiw...but then again the HRRR isn't everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah, cloud tops are warming on the MCS. But dewpoints are starting to pool in the mid 60s to the southeast of it, so we should quickly destabilize on the southern fringes of it. The latent heat release from the MCS this morning may wind up advecting some weaker mid level lapse rates in here later on. May modulate the instability some but at the some time we'll have several opportunities for surface based convective initiation which wasn't a certainty before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The latent heat release from the MCS this morning may wind up advecting some weaker mid level lapse rates in here later on. May modulate the instability some but at the some time we'll have several opportunities for surface based convective initiation which wasn't a certainty before. I have the timing on the leading edge of clouds about noon for the northwestern part of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The latent heat release from the MCS this morning may wind up advecting some weaker mid level lapse rates in here later on. May modulate the instability some but at the some time we'll have several opportunities for surface based convective initiation which wasn't a certainty before. All things considered, still seems like wrn areas...maybe wrn ct has the best shot. I still sort of like that area late today or this evening, but we'll just have to see what that MCS does. Obviously we beat the negative aspects of it to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We're seeing the new convection fire on the leading edge of the more stout EML, it is matching up pretty well with lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km. As of right now, the MCS doesn't look to be putting out a huge cold pool. While there will be some lapse rates modification initially, I think sustained (albeit not particularly strong) southwesterly flow will advect the better lapse rates back over the warm sector in NY in time for something later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I have the timing on the leading edge of clouds about noon for the northwestern part of CT. Yeah that's what I'm seeing. Depending on how quickly the MCS falls apart hopefully we can break some of it apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We're seeing the new convection fire on the leading edge of the more stout EML, it is matching up pretty well with lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km. As of right now, the MCS doesn't look to be putting out a huge cold pool. While there will be some lapse rates modification initially, I think sustained (albeit not particularly strong) southwesterly flow will advect the better lapse rates back over the warm sector in NY in time for something later today. Yeah I was wondering if stuff fires behind it and becomes an evening threat. Seems like it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah I was wondering if stuff fires behind it and becomes an evening threat. Seems like it could happen. So all in all not a surprise. A convoluted severe threat for SNE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah that's what I'm seeing. Depending on how quickly the MCS falls apart hopefully we can break some of it apart. As it weakens, it should start to drift more eastward with the ambient flow. It may save areas south of 90 from too much contamination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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