HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I know I'm really pumped for tomorrow...I agree with Sam in that I could see 10% TOR contour somewhere...maybe not with the 6z outlook but perhaps with the 13z outlook. Just look at the Upper Midwest right now... I would have to imagine there will be some sort of vorticity / wave leftover to help out tomorrow. I agree about the 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not bad at all off 18z NAM. 550-650mb lapse rate is 8.4c/km! Great look on that hodograph regarding the veering wind profile and strongly curved low level vector, looks like I'll be following the threat up here for the next couple of days while the pattern reloads further west/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Just look at the Upper Midwest right now... I would have to imagine there will be some sort of vorticity / wave leftover to help out tomorrow. I agree about the 10% That's something I really started to think about this AM...models may not really pick up on any leftover vorticity/wave so the AM will be really important. Really have to watch for any sea-breeze boundary as well...that could be a major focal point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That's something I really started to think about this AM...models may not really pick up on any leftover vorticity/wave so the AM will be really important. Really have to watch for any sea-breeze boundary as well...that could be a major focal point One possible issue will be if the ridge comes in slightly stronger from any minor but not negligible feedback. This could act to broaden the deformation zone, increasing the westerly component to the low level flow behind the warm front. While not the worst thing in the world, it would narrow the areas of best tornadic potential and make your life hell picking a chase location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think eastern Mass could do well WED...potential for 2000 j/kg CAPE with 40-50kt 0-6 km shear. I don't think the front blows offshore til late...I like the NAM's idea. Could be an earlier show. I saw the 00z GFS looked slower....probably typical GFS trying to blow the front by too quick. I also took a peek at the shear after you mentioned Wednesday maybe being fun. Pretty good stuff for these parts in terms of 50kt 500 winds. It seems like the best days in ern ma are when the front drags its heels on a day where it clears 80% of SNE. Hoping we can get some sort of MCS tomorrow night, but might be too far east. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 One possible issue will be if the ridge comes in slightly stronger from any minor but not negligible feedback. This could act to broaden the deformation zone, increasing the westerly component to the low level flow behind the warm front. While not the worst thing in the world, it would narrow the areas of best tornadic potential and make your life hell picking a chase location. That would completely screw this up...not only would that limit the tornado potential but that would vastly decrease what low-level convergence we have and if that does happen I wonder if we'd even see any convection at all b/c that low-level convergence is going to be huge tomorrow. That westerly component would also probably mix the column a little more and allow for the more drier air aloft to mix down mixing out dewpoints and decreasing instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That would completely screw this up...not only would that limit the tornado potential but that would vastly decrease what low-level convergence we have and if that does happen I wonder if we'd even see any convection at all b/c that low-level convergence is going to be huge tomorrow. That westerly component would also probably mix the column a little more and allow for the more drier air aloft to mix down mixing out dewpoints and decreasing instability. There are still plenty of things that can go wrong which is why (like you said) the SPC will probably not introduce the 10% tornado threat quite yet (you never know). We'll know around midday as the players from tonight emerge and the ridge amplifies over the eastern Lakes. Down my way, I am simply hoping for a cap busting miracle to form in the hills of PA or something. The NAM suite (meso models) are developing this spurious convective cluster down this way and up through the Hudson Valley. Most likely... I am going to sweat my balls off under a hazy sky with a W-SW wind and a temp around 90, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I saw the 00z GFS looked slower....probably typical GFS trying to blow the front by too quick. I also took a peek at the shear after you mentioned Wednesday maybe being fun. Pretty good stuff for these parts in terms of 50kt 500 winds. It seems like the best days in ern ma are when the front drags its heels on a day where it clears 80% of SNE. Hoping we can get some sort of MCS tomorrow night, but might be too far east. We'll see. If the next few days fail to deliver, we always have the next major trough at the end of the week/next weekend. I hope the models continue with the inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There are still plenty of things that can go wrong which is why (like you said) the SPC will probably not introduce the 10% tornado threat quite yet (you never know). We'll know around midday as the players from tonight emerge and the ridge amplifies over the eastern Lakes. Down my way, I am simply hoping for a cap busting miracle to form in the hills of PA or something. The NAM suite (meso models) are developing this spurious convective cluster down this way and up through the Hudson Valley. Most likely... I am going to sweat my balls off under a hazy sky with a W-SW wind and a temp around 90, lol. Yeah unfortunately for you down your way things don't look to well...perhaps Tuesday could bring you better luck as you'll have the front approaching from the west and modest height falls. One other impressive fact for tomorrow is how steep those low-level lapse rates will be...I know we've all discussed how steep the mid-level lapse rates will be but those low-level lapse rates look to be about as impressive as you can get them. What this means is if we see activity develop and organize into a line segment we could see a very nasty bowing line capable of very intense winds...maybe upwards of 70-75 mph? Even though the shear isn't that strong skew-t's have a impressive damaging wind look to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Man...some of these NAM bufkit soundings are quite impressive tomorrow...near 2000 Cape and over 200 m2s2 of helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah unfortunately for you down your way things don't look to well...perhaps Tuesday could bring you better luck as you'll have the front approaching from the west and modest height falls. One other impressive fact for tomorrow is how steep those low-level lapse rates will be...I know we've all discussed how steep the mid-level lapse rates will be but those low-level lapse rates look to be about as impressive as you can get them. What this means is if we see activity develop and organize into a line segment we could see a very nasty bowing line capable of very intense winds...maybe upwards of 70-75 mph? Even though the shear isn't that strong skew-t's have a impressive damaging wind look to them. Yeah I need a miracle. During the great tornado episode last year in New England, we managed to get a couple of supercells down this way that broke the cap and brought some large hail. But tomorrow is not even close to that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah I need a miracle. During the great tornado episode last year in New England, we managed to get a couple of supercells down this way that broke the cap and brought some large hail. But tomorrow is not even close to that setup. As hard as it is to get major severe up this way I believe it's even more difficult to get good severe down that way...often times you'll end up with the better instability but all the better shear is up over northern New England. And those awesome setups that deliver in the Northeast your area often times is too far south. The late summer and fall months offer you better chances sometime Like November of '89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 As hard as it is to get major severe up this way I believe it's even more difficult to get good severe down that way...often times you'll end up with the better instability but all the better shear is up over northern New England. And those awesome setups that deliver in the Northeast your area often times is too far south. The late summer and fall months offer you better chances sometime Like November of '89 This area is the worst and I don't have high expectations ever for this region. Every once in awhile I get surprised by what occurs. Like last year, I saw 2 wall clouds within a week in June and the wind / spin-ups in Irene were pretty awesome. But yeah tomorrow will likely fail and Tuesday will be typical gusty t-storms with isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 This area is the worst and I don't have high expectations ever for this region. Every once in awhile I get surprised by what occurs. Like last year, I saw 2 wall clouds within a week in June and the wind / spin-ups in Irene were pretty awesome. But yeah tomorrow will likely fail and Tuesday will be typical gusty t-storms with isolated severe. Lucky it's only May so still alot of summer to go. We're due for one of those summers with lots of squall lines...those setups actually can fare well down your way. The way the pattern seems to be setting up we could see that type of potential once we get into the heart of summer. Hey...who knows, we've already seen two tropical systems, maybe we'll see a threat come the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Lucky it's only May so still alot of summer to go. We're due for one of those summers with lots of squall lines...those setups actually can fare well down your way. The way the pattern seems to be setting up we could see that type of potential once we get into the heart of summer. Hey...who knows, we've already seen two tropical systems, maybe we'll see a threat come the fall Well, even this upcoming week has a couple of opportunities. After tomorrow, there is of course the TUE-WED FROPA. I also like the storm at the end of next week; which if it can stay inland, would potential pose a severe/isolated tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well, even this upcoming week has a couple of opportunities. After tomorrow, there is of course the TUE-WED FROPA. I also like the storm at the end of next week; which if it can stay inland, would potential pose a severe/isolated tornado threat. End of the week certainly has potential for you...in fact, that setup is kind of similar to those setups you see in the fall which give you severe, except since it's the warm season you'd have stronger instability. Tuesday/Wednesday does seem interesting...although seeing those weakening mid-level lapse rates make me cringe, especially down your way and deep layer shear seems to weaken but still plenty to be worked out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 2% TOR Wiz 15 hail/wind as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Day 1 out 2%/15%/15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Disco is not super inviting... but I guess good enough for you guys up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 2% TOR Wiz 15 hail/wind as well Guess I can finally go to bed...waking up around 7-8 AM to look over things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 ...PORTIONS OF ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION NEAR AND S OF A SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT SHOULD FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AIDED BY SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ENHANCED NWLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD. WHILE TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVECTION -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT -- IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PA AND VICINITY...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT -- PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM NRN NY SEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MOVE QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Where's Wiz's 10% tornado contour??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not much more to say at this point. We've sort of beaten this to death. As we've been saying the lack of upper level forcing is a concern... hell 500mb heights actually build 18z-00z today. That said as HM points out leftover perturbations from upscale convection could be something to watch. Models still show very little CIN (I think they're removing CIN too quickly at base of EML). If we're able to get solid convective initiation over the Adirondacks and Greens watch out downstream all the way to POU and HFD. I am impressed that this event actually seems to have the EML building through the day and not departing. Steepest lapse rates in mid levels in the 500-700mb layer come in here between 18z and 00z... nearly 8.5c/km in the 500-650mb layer! Will that strengthen the CIN at the base of that layer? Not sure. Obviously anything that develops could be high end given CAPE profiles with localized tornado threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 00z hodograph off 6z NAM for 00z Tuesday at BDL. LCL at about 900mb which is a bit high for tornadoes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Pretty nice instability for 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow Ryan, check out 6z hodo for GFL...not bad at all! Like you mentioned though, LCL's are a little on the high side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow Ryan, check out 6z hodo for GFL...not bad at all! Like you mentioned though, LCL's are a little on the high side Dude you should go to bed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Dude you should go to bed lol Too excited to sleep. I think I've slept about 4 hours the past 3 nights. You mentioned the T word on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too excited to sleep. I think I've slept about 4 hours the past 3 nights. You mentioned the T word on air Yeah I said I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado somewhere in the northeast. Key to hit home to viewers today is areal coverage will be limited but any storms that do form could be high end severe. It's actually challenging to communicate without people taking parts of your forecast out of context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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