ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I can see that lightning from the NY storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well yes, but in southern CT I run into traffic, speed traps, drunk drivers, impossible chase terrain and inefficient road networks on a regular basis, so all that doesn't really discourage me much - or say rather that I'm habituated to it. Seems like I risk all those things every time I "chase" around here, which is why I put the word chase in quotes, because you can't really storm chase in SNE, usually the best you can hope for is an intercept (very fast storm motions are another annoyance you didn't mention). So yes, I take your point, you're exactly right, but... It's SNE, you're never going to get an ideal chase situation, so when the parameters are looking really good, well, you might as well go for it. That's my chase philosophy, anyway. I've done the real thing out west, so I know exactly how much harder it is to chase the Northeast, but if you do see something, the difficulty factor makes it that much sweeter. I agree to a point... if it looks like a '53 type day or something, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Very frequent out to the SW/W!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If tomorrow turns out really good, I'm going to be pissed lol. I agreed to work for someone 5PM-10:30, but I would've been available to chase. So hopefully its nothing to amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Impressed with tomorrow looking at latest guidance. I think we see 5% tornado, 30% hail and wind...30% hatched hail...if llvl shear was stronger 10% tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Impressed with tomorrow looking at latest guidance. I think we see 5% tornado, 30% hail and wind...30% hatched hail...if llvl shear was stronger 10% tornado Are you in Albany already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Are you in Albany already? Not yet...waking up around 7-8 AM to assess morning data. I have to pick up my pay check from the mall at 10 AM then head out...I forgot there is no mail tomorrow so we will only have about $50 for gas money so we have to be careful...that should be enough though to get north of Albany and back...last time we did that we only had to spend about $30 which was a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not yet...waking up around 7-8 AM to assess morning data. I have to pick up my pay check from the mall at 10 AM then head out...I forgot there is no mail tomorrow so we will only have about $50 for gas money so we have to be careful...that should be enough though to get north of Albany and back...last time we did that we only had to spend about $30 which was a few years ago. I'm leaving in about an hour for the Catskills. Gonna try to get some turkey hunting in before I head Northwest of Cobbelskill, I managed to talk my cousin into chasing with me. I just need to give him 3 packs of ciggarettes Gonna hang around the Dacks tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not yet...waking up around 7-8 AM to assess morning data. I have to pick up my pay check from the mall at 10 AM then head out...I forgot there is no mail tomorrow so we will only have about $50 for gas money so we have to be careful...that should be enough though to get north of Albany and back...last time we did that we only had to spend about $30 which was a few years ago. Tor for WeHa while youre in NY. Sucks to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Eastern NY should score a 10% tor tomorrow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Eastern NY should score a 10% tor tomorrow IMO humo me Sam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm leaving in about an hour for the Catskills. Gonna try to get some turkey hunting in before I head Northwest of Cobbelskill, I managed to talk my cousin into chasing with me. I just need to give him 3 packs of ciggarettes Gonna hang around the Dacks tommorow. wow...that's steep Tor for WeHa while youre in NY. Sucks to suck. what are you doing tomorrow? want to come with me and my friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 wow...that's steep what are you doing tomorrow? want to come with me and my friend? NY-30 is a pretty good ride, goes right from my place up to the dacks. The backroads up there are fun to drive on. NY-28 is another good ride, it is off of the Northway. Around Tupper lake is about as far north as I will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 humo me Sam Playing the warm front in a NW flow event I like the tor threat tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Playing the warm front in a NW flow event I like the tor threat tomorrow The 21z SPC SREF is quite impressive as is the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Ekster... Thoughts????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 wow...that's steep what are you doing tomorrow? want to come with me and my friend? got stuff to do tomorrow AM and stuff, you really think ENY looks that much better than NW CT? I've been on my phone all day so I have no idea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Ekster... Thoughts????? I'm looking, I'm looking. Keep your miley cyrus socks on for a few min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 got stuff to do tomorrow AM and stuff, you really think ENY looks that much better than NW CT? I've been on my phone all day so I have no idea lol I would think E NY yes b/c it appears the best shear/instability will align there...along with better lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm looking, I'm looking. Keep your miley cyrus socks on for a few min... I'll try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I would think E NY yes b/c it appears the best shear/instability will align there...along with better lift. ENY to my W or more N? It's only like 35 minutes from me to the border. I think like an hour 35 to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 On a slight side note, cool to see the Sunday MCS idea work out and it did in fact end up further south and west than the guidance this week suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'll try Needless to say it's a bit tough to pin down an area due to the nebulous nature of any mid level forcing mechanisms. However, given convection initiation, I foresee a couple areas of interest in you want to try to catch a tor. The first would be the Hudson Valley vicinity roughly between Albany and Glens Falls where terrain channeled flow could enhance your low level hodographs. Something may initiate to the west over the higher terrain and end up being big as it moves southeastward through the Hudson Valley and into the Southern Greens and Berkshires. If you are looking for a closer chase, I don't think the CT river valley is necessarily a bad play either. A good storm or two will probably go up near the warm front and would take advantage of locally backed SFC winds and big CAPE. In fact the 00z nam highest EHI values for the entire northeast tomorrow are actually in the CT valley in MA and southern VT near the warm frontal boundary Late afternoon and early evening. Something to consider. Would like to see a better defined short wave trough but I like NW flow events...500mb temps are relatively cool tomorrow. I haven't gotten around to looking at TUE yet...but I am getting increasingly intrigued with WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wednesday looks that good Mike? I briefly saw the front slowed but it looked pretty close moving offshore in the 12z runs. Don't have a laptop with me unfortunately to look closer at data. I thought ern ny and vt looked decent tomorrow and then maybe sliding into ct valley later in in the evening. SREFs seemed to like 00z as kinematics looked a bit better. But yeah a couple of cells may pop near the front...especially if it tries to push sw in the aftn which it could as onshore flow fights the ne push of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 ENY to my W or more N? It's only like 35 minutes from me to the border. I think like an hour 35 to ALB Kind of wnw but not too far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Needless to say it's a bit tough to pin down an area due to the nebulous nature of any mid level forcing mechanisms. However, given convection initiation, I foresee a couple areas of interest in you want to try to catch a tor. The first would be the Hudson Valley vicinity roughly between Albany and Glens Falls where terrain channeled flow could enhance your low level hodographs. Something may initiate to the west over the higher terrain and end up being big as it moves southeastward through the Hudson Valley and into the Southern Greens and Berkshires. If you are looking for a closer chase, I don't think the CT river valley is necessarily a bad play either. A good storm or two will probably go up near the warm front and would take advantage of locally backed SFC winds and big CAPE. In fact the 00z nam highest EHI values for the entire northeast tomorrow are actually in the CT valley in MA and southern VT near the warm frontal boundary Late afternoon and early evening. Something to consider. Would like to see a better defined short wave trough but I like NW flow events...500mb temps are relatively cool tomorrow. I haven't gotten around to looking at TUE yet...but I am getting increasingly intrigued with WED. Thanks! Yeah we have several areas of interest...hopefully by the AM we can pinpoint an area where the absolute greatest potential will exist. I'm still worried about the lack of strong lift, however, simulated radar images do develop a decent amount of convection. I do like Bennington county in VT and Berkshire county in MA...as potential target areas to start out in. I looked a bit at Tuesday...wasn't really too intrigued...didn't look at Wednesday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 On a slight side note, cool to see the Sunday MCS idea work out and it did in fact end up further south and west than the guidance this week suggested. OSU' mentioned the layout a few day ago; we wondered if MCS production "check list" factors were present, and it was suggested the propagating right of the environmental flow should result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wednesday looks that good Mike? I briefly saw the front slowed but it looked pretty close moving offshore in the 12z runs. Don't have a laptop with me unfortunately to look closer at data. I thought ern ny and vt looked decent tomorrow and then maybe sliding into ct valley later in in the evening. SREFs seemed to like 00z as kinematics looked a bit better. But yeah a couple of cells may pop near the front...especially if it tries to push sw in the aftn which it could as onshore flow fights the ne push of the warm front. I think eastern Mass could do well WED...potential for 2000 j/kg CAPE with 40-50kt 0-6 km shear. I don't think the front blows offshore til late...I like the NAM's idea. Could be an earlier show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I know I'm really pumped for tomorrow...I agree with Sam in that I could see 10% TOR contour somewhere...maybe not with the 6z outlook but perhaps with the 13z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think eastern Mass could do well WED...potential for 2000 j/kg CAPE with 40-50kt 0-6 km shear. I don't think the front blows offshore til late...I like the NAM's idea. Could be an earlier show. Maybe I can stay at Rob's in New Bedford tomorrow night and go chasing Wednesday AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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