weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 YES! 15z SPC SREF coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 My friend knows that area fairly well so I'm sure he'l have ideas. You better take pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Leaving for a cookout soon though...hopefully it can come out quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Hoping for something up in the lake george area early in the afternoon before I drive back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It's hard to believe the weenie ism going on in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 You better take pics. My friend always has his camcorder and cameras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It's hard to believe the weenie ism going on in this thread Believe this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 Deep CAPE through the clouds ice zone will do that. I can almost envision a few discrete big hailers up around GFL/DDH tomorrow congealing into a line and coming south after dark with a hail/lightning threat continuing. Hopefully we see some action, though I'm not particularly enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Looking at some of the early probs on the 15z SPC SREF I think a high end slight risk is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Looking at some of the early probs on the 15z SPC SREF I think a high end slight risk is possible. Possible moderate risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Possible moderate risk? No I don't think we'll see moderate. I think we'll end up seeing something like: 5% Tornado 30% hail (possibly hatched) 30% wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Holy crap Ryan. What's up with NBC and bears lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Back later tonmight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Holy crap Ryan. What's up with NBC and bears lol. Isn't that wild? Before I got my phone the poor thing was trying to climb the fence (which would have gotten him to the highway) and kept falling on its ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I saw the BOX discussion and saw Wiz's latest freak out. We all know the "indicies" look good for the obvious reasons. The question is whether we're able to initiate convection and how widespread it will be. I think it's certainly possible that we get stuck with enough synoptic scale subsidence with heights holding firm or either ticking up through 00z Tuesday to keep the cap in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Anyone give me ideas on time of possible storms tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Anyone give me ideas on time of possible storms tomorrow? Late. Toward dark if we get any to form down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Just looked at the 18z NAM... Big improvement for severe tomorrow in SNE, for supercells and yes maybe even tornadoes. Looking nice over a much larger area on this run, with a big EHI bullseye from NW CT up through ALB and W MA into S VT. If these numbers hold up I'd have to seriously consider a chase. The action will probably all be well north of me, but an hour's ride up 91 could prove to be well worth the effort. If the models continue this trend of improving probs for severe/supercells, it could be one of the better days of the season. I like the fact that coverage will be relatively sparse, I'll take one or two nice supercells over a squall line/MCS any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 . I like the fact that coverage will be relatively sparse, I'll take one or two nice supercells over a squall line/MCS any day. Not in this case. Memorial Day traffic, speed traps, drunk drivers, nearly impossible "chase" terrain, inefficient road network....imo, just as well take in a linear squall line and relax at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 18z NAM (FWIW) has 500mb heights building a bit more from 18z-00z across E NY/W NE. Certainly more than I'd like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 MCS developing in central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Just getting back on shift after a long stretch off, nice to see that the consistent signal last week for this pattern has played out. Just a few thoughts here that are rattling around in my head... Seeing model progs for instability, impressive for this area. It's not often you see 2000 J/kg and don't pop a few SVRs in this region, even with poor forcing. I'd like to see a little more deep layer shear for storm organization to avoid a pulse evolution, but near the front and the farther north you go we can usually find 30-35 kts. Any time I see this in New England I take notice. Given the strength of that boundary the tornado threat is definitely non-zero, much of that probably in the upper Hudson Valley. This conditional probability image is mostly meant to highlight the overlap in conditions that can lead to significant severe though. With the remnant EML forecast, hail at or above 2" will certainly be in play if storms can develop a meso. It is impressive too to see how much of an effect the forecast EML has on the area. Up this way Monday night we have forecast MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg well after midnight. Any sort of upglide over the warm front could yield some nice nocturnal hailers. Tuesday the forcing is a little better, lapse rates a little worse. Again that kind of instability in this region should be good for another round of SVRs. And I will not be surprised if those 70 dewpoints verify. Considering the slow (stalled) nature of the warm front, moisture pooling along it could get us there by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Not bad at all off 18z NAM. 550-650mb lapse rate is 8.4c/km! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 While 500mb flow isn't impressive (25-30 knots) when you look at the length of the hodograph thanks to the strongly veering profile and a touch of a LLJ around 800mb you actually have an acceptable amount of deep layer shear for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 While 500mb flow isn't impressive (25-30 knots) when you look at the length of the hodograph thanks to the strongly veering profile and a touch of a LLJ around 800mb you actually have an acceptable amount of deep layer shear for supercells. Mind you this is for SNE around 00z Tuesday. Areas north like GFL/ALB things looks more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 No matter what happens i just hope that wiz gets to see a damn tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 While 500mb flow isn't impressive (25-30 knots) when you look at the length of the hodograph thanks to the strongly veering profile and a touch of a LLJ around 800mb you actually have an acceptable amount of deep layer shear for supercells. In a basic way, you are talking about the effective bulk shear, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Mind you this is for SNE around 00z Tuesday. Areas north like GFL/ALB things looks more impressive. I would think storms would fire to the NW of the upper hudson valley in the southern adriondacks before moving SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Yeah Chris (oceanstate) seems like the type of setups for good hail. Maybe if we can get a cold pool going....could have a few organized segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Not in this case. Memorial Day traffic, speed traps, drunk drivers, nearly impossible "chase" terrain, inefficient road network....imo, just as well take in a linear squall line and relax at home. Well yes, but in southern CT I run into traffic, speed traps, drunk drivers, impossible chase terrain and inefficient road networks on a regular basis, so all that doesn't really discourage me much - or say rather that I'm habituated to it. Seems like I risk all those things every time I "chase" around here, which is why I put the word chase in quotes, because you can't really storm chase in SNE, usually the best you can hope for is an intercept (very fast storm motions are another annoyance you didn't mention). So yes, I take your point, you're exactly right, but... It's SNE, you're never going to get an ideal chase situation, so when the parameters are looking really good, well, you might as well go for it. That's my chase philosophy, anyway. I've done the real thing out west, so I know exactly how much harder it is to chase the Northeast, but if you do see something, the difficulty factor makes it that much sweeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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