CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I don't have a lot of time today but I just wanted to stop in and say that I really like the way tomorrow is coming together for portions of New England and I agree with the new slight risk. In the end, the lack of strong lift may prevent widespread severe but that may also prevent widespread anvil contamination / linear system. (which is what happened yesterday in the Mid Atlantic. Although, I did get some nice mammatus). All you really need is to get 1 nasty supercell sparked and the thermodynamic environment will send it through the roof.... I agree with this. Scott mentioned June 1995 and I sort of like that analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I don't have a lot of time today but I just wanted to stop in and say that I really like the way tomorrow is coming together for portions of New England and I agree with the new slight risk. In the end, the lack of strong lift may prevent widespread severe but that may also prevent widespread anvil contamination / linear system. (which is what happened yesterday in the Mid Atlantic. Although, I did get some nice mammatus). All you really need is to get 1 nasty supercell sparked and the thermodynamic environment will send it through the roof.... Exactly! This is why tomorrow really needs to be watched...even if we only get one cell it will have ample instability to feed off of and decent shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Usually it's te leftover convective debris clouds that do that. Just as long as I don't get screwed I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Usually it's te leftover convective debris clouds that do that. If we wind up dry with convection not developing tomorrow afternoon... severe convective threat will linger into the evening/overnight. Hail primary threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 This is 4 PM I think 8:00 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Severe threat is much more marginal down here than it is up to the north. Things look very impressive across upstate NY and Vermont. Don't think it's a tornado day but certainly big supercells if we can get things to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Bored...SPC SREF won't start coming out for like another hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Check out the NAM and GFS BUFKIT profiles for GFL if you want some good weather porn. If I was chasing I would target somewhere up there but it will be near impossible to chase tomorrow with the traffic on the Northway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 If we wind up dry with convection not developing tomorrow afternoon... severe convective threat will linger into the evening/overnight. Hail primary threat. I just like the lapse rates and shear is decent....but those lapea rates look impressive and yeah I agree with it lasting into overnight. Tuesday looks interesting but I think the Eml may get advcted out and tainted from prior convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Severe threat is much more marginal down here than it is up to the north. Things look very impressive across upstate NY and Vermont. Don't think it's a tornado day but certainly big supercells if we can get things to go. Is the Albany area a good spot to go to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Check out the NAM and GFS BUFKIT profiles for GFL if you want some good weather porn. If I was chasing I would target somewhere up there but it will be near impossible to chase tomorrow with the traffic on the Northway. Yeah that looks like where things start out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 You can see where the best shear resides... well north... VT and north of ALB. It seems like the sweet spot will be somewhere between ALB and GFL? Here we could get lucky if we are able to maintain a solid EML overhead and can pool some nice BL moisture under the cap. The NAM (for once) mixes us out tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Is the Albany area a good spot to go to? Chasing will be impossible tomorrow north of Albany on the Northway with traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Check out the NAM and GFS BUFKIT profiles for GFL if you want some good weather porn. If I was chasing I would target somewhere up there but it will be near impossible to chase tomorrow with the traffic on the Northway. Holy crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 GFS is aggressive with QPF tomorrow down here. If we can actually initiate convection in Western Mass/NW CT around 18z we would be in good shape for severe. Mid level winds go to hell after 21z south of ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 6/20/95 did produce that nasty CT supercell, however there was plenty of strong/ severe convection over RI and E MA prior to that between 12 and 2pm. That was a long and active day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 6/20/95 did produce that nasty CT supercell, however there was plenty of strong/ severe convection over RI and E MA prior to that between 12 and 2pm. That was a long and active day. Yeah it was. There was ongoing convection that morning with a pretty sizable EML in place. The synoptic pattern is certainly different but the idea of a couple discrete supercells going to town is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Chasing will be impossible tomorrow north of Albany on the Northway with traffic. ************* Maybe we can go to western VT or some place where there is no traffic...like a suburb type place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Met a friend at work this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 My brother said he'll go chasing with my friend and I which is awesome b/c both of us are phone-less right now and my brother has an iphone 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I haven't really been looking.. Sounds like we may have 3 days in a row of potential convection in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Met a friend at work this morning Now whenever I walk from the mall to the rink I'm going to be scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 GFS is aggressive with QPF tomorrow down here. If we can actually initiate convection in Western Mass/NW CT around 18z we would be in good shape for severe. Mid level winds go to hell after 21z south of ALB. Any idea on timeframe? I'd like to drive home in a TOR if possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Any idea on timeframe? I'd like to drive home in a TOR if possible You should go chasing with kids. The wife and the girls would love him and his friend and brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Any idea on timeframe? I'd like to drive home in a TOR if possible How far from Albany are you? We should meet up and grab Mcdonalds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 Yeah it was. There was ongoing convection that morning with a pretty sizable EML in place. The synoptic pattern is certainly different but the idea of a couple discrete supercells going to town is plausible. The lightning was insane that day. Even Wiz would have said "ok, that's enough" after the first hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The lightning was insane that day. Even Wiz would have said "ok, that's enough" after the first hour. Deep CAPE through the clouds ice zone will do that. I can almost envision a few discrete big hailers up around GFL/DDH tomorrow congealing into a line and coming south after dark with a hail/lightning threat continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 ************* Maybe we can go to western VT or some place where there is no traffic...like a suburb type place Take backroads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Take backroads. My friend knows that area fairly well so I'm sure he'l have ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Deep CAPE through the clouds ice zone will do that. I can almost envision a few discrete big hailers up around GFL/DDH tomorrow congealing into a line and coming south after dark with a hail/lightning threat continuing. May 26th, 2010 repeat? Perhaps we can chase the storms from NY back in to CT!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.