David Reimer Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Looking at the mid-upper level pattern, I can see it getting a little farther south than what the models above are depicting...maybe JAX's latitude, before the strong trough sweeping the eastern half of the CONUS gets it hooked and it flies away to the NE in 3 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Interesting this developed so quickly. Local news starting to mention it already. Maybe we can get some precip out of it before it shoots to the north, not sure if it will come close enough to the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 All I can find is the Automated fix system calling at AL01. David, where did you get the AL01/TS thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al012012.invest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 All I can find is the Automated fix system calling at AL01. David, where did you get the AL01/TS thing? ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al012012.invest ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Navy using Alberto as well http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/ATL/01L.ALBERTO/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Starting to get beat up by D-MIn, but since it's sitting right over the Gulf Stream, convection should redevelop tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 77.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I think I cracked why NHC gave the go ahead... The NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer is returning from their Gulf Of Mexico research trip. They have a bunch of Meteorological instruments onboard. They have been reporting from within 100nm of the system with NW winds of 35 kts for the last couple of hours... See: http://www.sailwx.in...phtml?call=WTDH http://www.moc.noaa.gov/oe/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Here ya go Josh another first ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Uhhh... A ship (WCAU) in the COC is reporting winds to 65knots with a 1000mb pressure. Probably BS, but just thought it was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Uhhh... A ship (WCAU) in the COC is reporting winds to 65knots with a 1000mb pressure. Probably BS, but just thought it was interesting. Crazier things have happened with tropical cyclones this small. Deep convection has been persistent over the center all day, evacuating mass from the lower levels of the cyclone. Until we get reconnaissance in there we won't know the true intensity. Also it could be a transient thunderstorm wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Uhhh... A ship (WCAU) in the COC is reporting winds to 65knots with a 1000mb pressure. Probably BS, but just thought it was interesting. The ships name is the Sea-Land Champion and It is a major corporation cargo ship... Indeed it just sent a report in of 1000.0 mb and 65 kt winds... Shipwx.info has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Bang.. SHIP S 2000 32.20 -78.00 15 270 350 65.1 - 9.8 3.0 - - 29.53 -0.37 73.4 78.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 It could have been a convective gust in a squall, even TDs have those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Downburst or something? Convection does seem to have been collapsing a bit since D-MIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I think I cracked why NHC gave the go ahead... The NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer is returning from their Gulf Of Mexico research trip. They have a bunch of Meteorological instruments onboard. They have been reporting from within 100nm of the system with NW winds of 35 kts for the last couple of hours... See: http://www.sailwx.in...phtml?call=WTDH http://www.moc.noaa.gov/oe/ Sea-weet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Downburst or something? Convection does seem to have been collapsing a bit since D-MIN A downburst from dry air entrainment makes alot of sense for this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Alberto updated statement, up to 60 mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/192250.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Looks like the NHC noticed that ship report. Very odd little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 995mb... geez. That's low. Maybe even a bit too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 We'll see what happens tomorrow. Shear may be able to lax just a bit, but dry air looks to plague this for the majority of it's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Really lousy looking on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 D-Min hit it with a brick. Might be able to re-develop convection later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Would be something if it comes back from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 78.5W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Poor SOB is decoupling to nothing... http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES03312012141m64ru7.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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