downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Models continue to show this coming ashore into the coastal Carolinas, looks pretty good on radar and sat and the NHC has it at 20% to develop. Banding features appearing around center on radar and impressive early vis shots make ya wonder if this will become the first named system of the year. Buoys offshore are not reflecting surface pressure drops yet though so its not at the surface yet.... http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 SHIPS has it peaking at 54 knots. The ECMWF run of May 13th that I posted in the Long range spring 2012 thread had this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/hires2012051906/namc_uv900_conus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 SHIPS has it peaking at 54 knots. The ECMWF run of May 13th that I posted in the Long range spring 2012 thread had this system. Thats SHIPS for ya, seems weak TD should be all we expect and how far the rain gets inland is also a big question. I suspect not much further than I-95 if at all, water temps are only low 70's out there had if this happens a month from now I think it would made TS no problem given how organized it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 Pretty impressive this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 Mandrin new outlook SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 SPC WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Down to 1004mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Alberto is born! Or maybe not? I use Storm Trakker software and right now it shows it with 40kt winds and a pressure of 1007 but I can't find confirmation that it is our first storm. TPC still has it as a Invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 We have Alberto. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/ATL/01L.ALBERTO/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 We have Alberto. http://www.nrlmry.na...umb/Latest.html Nice sucker got its act together fast now lets see where they say its gonna go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 LP to the NNE is going to have an influence, shear in the short term, system looks like crap, maybe the NAM was right all along with a semi clean split, taking it into MYR/ILM, regardless, coastal sections look to cash in on more RM, maybe some convection for the sand hills/coastal plain early week as the higher pw's come ashore with heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 All that rain that the Myrtle Beach area and south has had in the past week, and now this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 650 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 ...SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER... REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. SUMMARY OF 650 PM...2250 UTC...INFORMATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I just got back from the beach, let me tell ya, it is BLOWING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 FOX News Charlotte just put up a graphic highlighting tropical storm "Ablerto." They couldn't get the first one right? Really? I guess it's really early for a named storm, so maybe a should just cut them some slack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Meh better hope it fires up a nice blob overnight during the DMAX otherwise this will go from interesting early season threat to a yawner in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Looks like a face...kinda creepy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 That face looks like an Ablerto I'd love for this thing to retro all the way into Ga. and cut off and do what the last Alberto did in the early 90's, give me some drought busting mega rain!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Nice naked swirl, tonight he will be over some warmer water, if shear can die off and it has a good DMAX it might have one more flare up left in the tank. Be nice for it to get organized enough to give eastern NC some needed rain as he passes by just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I just got back from the beach, let me tell ya, it is BLOWING! I ran a triathlon at Jekyll Island yesterday, and the surf was already very rough at 0730. I guess this storm explains why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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