fsu_wxgirl Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I know this is a little early, but I am trying to work on my forecasting techniques. So here are my thoughts for Memorial Day Weekend across the Northeast. Temperature wise I'm feeling pretty confident with my forecast of above normal temps. Precipitation is a little harder to pinpoint. Right now I'm going with a dry early weekend, although keeping an eye on the strong tropical fetch across the Caribbean and the possibility of weak low pressure developing somewhere off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Depending on the placement there could be some scattered showers/thunderstorms Friday or Saturday somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic. There will also be a storm system developing over the Plains early in the weekend. As of right now my forecast is for this system to bring a frontal boundary across the Northeast late in the weekend bringing a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms. This morning the models indicated the ridge in the Southeast could be a little stronger so I want to keep my eye on this to see what influence it has on the frontal passage. Any way, those are my thoughts for right now. Just thought I'd put it out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Thanks for posting and good luck! Gonna play golf in Western PA Friday so hopefully any rain will stay in Eastern PA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I know this is a little early, but I am trying to work on my forecasting techniques. So here are my thoughts for Memorial Day Weekend across the Northeast. Temperature wise I'm feeling pretty confident with my forecast of above normal temps. Precipitation is a little harder to pinpoint. Right now I'm going with a dry early weekend, although keeping an eye on the strong tropical fetch across the Caribbean and the possibility of weak low pressure developing somewhere off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Depending on the placement there could be some scattered showers/thunderstorms Friday or Saturday somewhere along the Mid-Atlantic. There will also be a storm system developing over the Plains early in the weekend. As of right now my forecast is for this system to bring a frontal boundary across the Northeast late in the weekend bringing a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms. This morning the models indicated the ridge in the Southeast could be a little stronger so I want to keep my eye on this to see what influence it has on the frontal passage. Any way, those are my thoughts for right now. Just thought I'd put it out there! the 0z euro wanted to drop that low pressure affecting us next week into the southeast and cutting it off befoire moving off the se coast later in the weekend while a ridge builds over top of it over us. The cold front looks like it would affect the region later into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Yeah the Euro is building that ridge in stronger and further west than the GFS forcing the low to move more northward. The GFS allows a weak front to move across the Northeast sometime on Monday bringing the chance of an isolated thunderstorm. the 0z euro wanted to drop that low pressure affecting us next week into the southeast and cutting it off befoire moving off the se coast later in the weekend while a ridge builds over top of it over us. The cold front looks like it would affect the region later into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Some musings of 90s around the area for MDW...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 i dont see it memorial day weekend, i see it after memorial day weekend. I think the storm affecting us next week is going to keep the big heat til after the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 i dont see it memorial day weekend, i see it after memorial day weekend. I think the storm affecting us next week is going to keep the big heat til after the holiday weekend. 80's are certainly doable IF the cutoff morass off of the Atlantic moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Update: Still feeling pretty good about my forecast. Today's GFS MOS guidance indicates temperatures well into the 80s for the weekend with 90s not to0 far away. Also continuing my thoughts on mainly dry weekend with just a chance of some scattered showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Update: Still feeling pretty good about my forecast. Today's GFS MOS guidance indicates temperatures well into the 80s for the weekend with 90s not to0 far away. Also continuing my thoughts on mainly dry weekend with just a chance of some scattered showers. yea it definitely looks like its going to get warm for the weekend. Still think we are going to have to doge afternoon t storms and what not esp on sun and mon. Some could be svr with all the heating around and backdoor cold front in the area. The euro is not as agressive in regards to the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 the 0z euro wanted to drop that low pressure affecting us next week into the southeast and cutting it off befoire moving off the se coast later in the weekend while a ridge builds over top of it over us. The cold front looks like it would affect the region later into the following week. I live in SC, and the trend this spring is for closed and cutoff lows in the SE USA. The trend is your friend as they say. The Euro has been especially strong in picking up on these lows, so I'd give it credence until it starts missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Sea breeze at the shore each day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wxsim is pumping out near 1" of rain from Sunday morning thru Early AM Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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