Chris G Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 We are heading to Kansas. We too had a late start feim Eau Claire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Was thinking about heading out to the St. Joseph area this morning but decided not to since it would have been an 5-6 hour drive and the terrain is not the best there unless u go into KS and stay out of Missouri. The HRRR has been consistant most of the day with developing a couple of supercells on the warm front in that area early this evening. Animated righ-res visible satellite is showing great shear attm across N. KS Eastward into NW Missouri. Throw in cape near 4000 j/kg, 0-1km helicity near 300 m/s, and that warm front to me is screaming tornadic supercells near St. joseph and points a tad west. I am thinking that SPC may be underestimating the tornado potential across NE KS into far NW MO this evening and am expecting a upgrade from the current 2% risk with thier new update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Tomorrow may be a surprise tornado event for south-east SD and southern MN, if the cap erodes fast enough. Latest SPC SREF is showing 4+ STP values across that area, which is abnormally high for that model. Also, moisture won't be what models are exactly saying, but low to mid 60s dew points is not out of the question. 700mb temps are hovering around the 11/12 degree area, but that's not impenetrable. Could turn out to be an interesting day...will see how the short term models handle this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wow @ all the chasers in La Crosse, KS. There's sooooo many of them. Looks like something is trying to popup near there as well. HRRR was developing something in this region since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 That cell is developing right on the nose of some serious low-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I think initiation is starting to take place near Hays, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 ChaserTV streams showing beautiful wall cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Nice boundary setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The Hays storm, approaching Russell KS should be SVR momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wall cloud is rotating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 62kft tops on that cell. 446 WFUS53 KDDC 252340 TORDDC KSC051-260015- /O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0049.120525T2340Z-120526T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 638 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAYS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Watching it on chaser TV. Big dusty tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The first storm turned severe and went between Hays and Russell, but in the process it threw off a left-split, which quickly dropped a tornado. Hays may not be finished yet as another potentially dangerous storm is approaching from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 650 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...COUPLED WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EML AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Both the main storm and its left-split produced a tornado, and now it seems the storm SW of Hays, NE of McCracken is getting close to creating its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Both KSN and KAKE are live streaming right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The southernmost cell in the line is going to be the dominant one soon. Tops exploding on that one with some decent rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The southernmost cell in the line is going to be the dominant one soon. Tops exploding on that one with some decent rotation. I was about to post that it looks like it's really getting it's act together near Bazine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Tornado 6 miles SW of Walker, KS, 25 minutes ago, credit to Tony Laubach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The southernmost cell in the line is going to be the dominant one soon. Tops exploding on that one with some decent rotation. but with its motion still to the northeast it's not moving off the boundary, storm near Russell still best with it tracking right near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Just pushed out smart cast for the Kansas region tracking Russell, KS area with highest threat area. High probabilities of f1/f2 tornadoes. Dodge city, Salina, Hutchinson, and Newton also in threat areas. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 All three storms look quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Heading to southern cell. Helicity best near front but middle cell got visually lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Heading to southern cell. Helicity best near front but middle cell got visually lame. LCL's are a bit high, but I guess they could still produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Heading to southern cell. Helicity best near front but middle cell got visually lame. Hail really ramping up in your cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 And Tornado warned: * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF ALEXANDER. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 TW for your cell, Ian. Great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Tops pushing 61,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The southernmost cell in the line is going to be the dominant one soon. Tops exploding on that one with some decent rotation. Took a little bit longer than 'soon', but it's separated and TW now. Good luck Ian! EDIT: Funnel cloud reported! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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