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May 22-? Severe weather


MNstorms

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Was thinking about heading out to the St. Joseph area this morning but decided not to since it would have been an 5-6 hour drive and the terrain is not the best there unless u go into KS and stay out of Missouri. The HRRR has been consistant most of the day with developing a couple of supercells on the warm front in that area early this evening. Animated righ-res visible satellite is showing great shear attm across N. KS Eastward into NW Missouri. Throw in cape near 4000 j/kg, 0-1km helicity near 300 m/s, and that warm front to me is screaming tornadic supercells near St. joseph and points a tad west. I am thinking that SPC may be underestimating the tornado potential across NE KS into far NW MO this evening and am expecting a upgrade from the current 2% risk with thier new update.

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Tomorrow may be a surprise tornado event for south-east SD and southern MN, if the cap erodes fast enough. Latest SPC SREF is showing 4+ STP values across that area, which is abnormally high for that model. Also, moisture won't be what models are exactly saying, but low to mid 60s dew points is not out of the question. 700mb temps are hovering around the 11/12 degree area, but that's not impenetrable. Could turn out to be an interesting day...will see how the short term models handle this.

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62kft tops on that cell.

446

WFUS53 KDDC 252340

TORDDC

KSC051-260015-

/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0049.120525T2340Z-120526T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

640 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHEAST

OF HAYS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 40 MPH.

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ww0298_radar.gif

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

650 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 650 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL

ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

RUSSELL KANSAS TO 45 MILES NORTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING TO THE

NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL

VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...COUPLED WITH HIGH

CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN

THE EML AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...HART

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The southernmost cell in the line is going to be the dominant one soon.

Tops exploding on that one with some decent rotation.

I was about to post that it looks like it's really getting it's act together near Bazine.

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And Tornado warned:

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL NESS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES

WEST OF ALEXANDER. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10

MPH.

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