Chinook Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I am testing out the Dual Pol stuff in GRLevel3 version 2. I picked the DVN radar site here. The hydrometeor type image shows a mix of hail, graupel, heavy rain, big drops, unknown, and rain. It also shows dry snow at 12000 ft above ground, which is 100 nautical miles away from the radar. Obviously the precipitation is not snow on the ground. It also shows storm report details. This image is for the storm north of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Well, so....how about Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Really nice looking cell in MO with a TBSS on L3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 555 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 550 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR CRESTON...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM CAUSED DAMAGE TO A FARMSTEAD NEAR LINDSAY AFTER 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA 555 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 550 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR CRESTON...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM CAUSED DAMAGE TO A FARMSTEAD NEAR LINDSAY AFTER 5 PM. Wait, wasn't Creston hit on May 14? EDIT: Nevermind, that was Creston Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Best cell of the day so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Verdict is NAM/GFS have been grossly too moist with boundary layer dews and nearly worthless for any type of thermodynamic analysis of storm environments. The good thing is they have been wrong basically every day anywhere north of TX, it seems. Usually whack about 5-10 degrees F off the NAM/GFS, and that will get you to some reasonable value. RAP and ECMWF have been the only useful dewpoint guidance...as well as bias-corrected guidance we have running at the local offices. But I totally agree, they have both been absolutely worthless. GFS has been especially awful. The biggest bomb event was a week or so ago when the GFS was progging dews 20+ degrees too high across the Great Lakes...with CAPE values around 2500 j/kg. Resultant CAPE that afternoon was more around 500-750 j/kg, SPC had a slight that they dropped that afternoon when it became apparent the evapotranspiration was not going to produce anything of the sort. Evapotranspiration is probably the source of a lot of the error. Truth is, we're in a drought, and drought begets drought for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The cell near Waterloo looks prety good on free NWS internet radar, on reflectivity presentation, but not all that great on the radial velocity. Wishing you good luck and excellent pictures. first cell had a ragged wall cloud but went outflow dominant pretty quick once we hit it with an interesting lowering briefly.. think we got some nice shots (i had auto wb on by accident so i'll see on mine). second one looked good for a bit but we didn't get to its core till it fell apart. slight redemption i suppose.. at least not a total shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I am testing out the Dual Pol stuff in GRLevel3 version 2. I picked the DVN radar site here. The hydrometeor type image shows a mix of hail, graupel, heavy rain, big drops, unknown, and rain. It also shows dry snow at 12000 ft above ground, which is 100 nautical miles away from the radar. Obviously the precipitation is not snow on the ground. It also shows storm report details. This image is for the storm north of Cedar Rapids. Notice the "ring" marking the difference between dry snow and rain. That occurs right at the melting layer, because the hydrometeor classification algorithm has no way of identifying other processes that can affect hydrometeor type. So for those of you with GRLevel3 you will see some odd looking images like this, especially with stratiform precip in the presence of a melting layer. As an aside, future versions of the HCA will have some type of approach to make a first guess at surface p-type. That should be interesting to see how well it functions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Baro: I agree with your thoughts about Saturday night and Sunday. I've been somewhat intrigued by Sat evening for the last two days as well. The GFS and Nam show some strong cape values along the MN, IA border with the advancing warm front. They both show some kind of precip breaking out along the northern edge of the best instability, I haven't bothered to look at the wind fields yet, (to early). If storms should break out over the I90 corridor in southern MN and become surfaced based, they may be able to ingest some of those cape values. And based on timing issue's only, Sunday night doesn't look that great, we stay caped until the advancing cold front (or lack of trigger) and that seems to have the greatest impact after 7pm, bring that cold front in during mid June and I would be more excited. Now put this system that we had today, and what could transpire this weekend, out another two weeks or so when evaportanspiration should start to kick in we would be talking a different tune IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Evapotranspiration is probably the source of a lot of the error. Truth is, we're in a drought, and drought begets drought for a reason. Oh absolutely, it is evapotranspiration/boundary layer processes poorly parameterized. I do believe numerical models are incredible tools, and I rarely bash them since I know how advanced they are, but it has been a brutal stretch for the NAM/GFS. I would consider being easier on them, but when there is other numerical guidance consistently performing superior, it is hard to give them a break even in the midst of a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN MARATHON COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 701 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF RIB MOUNTAIN...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAUSAU. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Oh absolutely, it is evapotranspiration poorly parameterized. I do believe numerical models are incredible tools, and I rarely bash them since I know how advanced they are, but it has been a brutal stretch for the NAM/GFS. I would consider being easier on them, but when there is other numerical guidance consistently performing superior, it is hard to give them a break even in the midst of a drought. I find it kind of funny how the GFS went from underestimating instability/moisture (although this may have to do with the GFS' tendency to underestimate sfc temps) and whatnot earlier in the year to now severely overestimating, although obviously evapotranspiration is less prevalent earlier in the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Oh absolutely, it is evapotranspiration/boundary layer processes poorly parameterized. I do believe numerical models are incredible tools, and I rarely bash them since I know how advanced they are, but it has been a brutal stretch for the NAM/GFS. I would consider being easier on them, but when there is other numerical guidance consistently performing superior, it is hard to give them a break even in the midst of a drought. Yeah I have no idea how they actually do it but it seems like the land use GIS data and soil moisture data is always about a year behind. It's like last years spring data is input for this years surface boundary layer calculations. Last year we were too low for most of our open gulf influx days (Even though we had that crazy wet spring), I know when we set a record last year up in Fargo models were 10 degrees low on dp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Notice the "ring" marking the difference between dry snow and rain. That occurs right at the melting layer, because the hydrometeor classification algorithm has no way of identifying other processes that can affect hydrometeor type. So for those of you with GRLevel3 you will see some odd looking images like this, especially with stratiform precip in the presence of a melting layer. As an aside, future versions of the HCA will have some type of approach to make a first guess at surface p-type. That should be interesting to see how well it functions. I have had a couple of hikes where I have gotten snowed on above 12500 to 13000 ft in the summertime. The wet bulb temp is below 32 on the high mountains for most of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Highly conditional chase opportunity tomorrow near the warm front, which should stretch across N KS or S NE by late afternoon. A glance at the H7 temp map makes me wince, but one thing is for sure: the underlying environment is easily the best combination of thermodynamics and kinematics the southern/central Plains have seen since the beginning of the month. If I were chasecationing, I'd definitely set up shop somewhere between HYS and BIE -- a couple counties E of the triple point (perhaps CNK) might be ideal. I'd also bring some SPF 35... but we'll see what the high-res models say in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Highly conditional chase opportunity tomorrow near the warm front, which should stretch across N KS or S NE by late afternoon. A glance at the H7 temp map makes me wince, but one thing is for sure: the underlying environment is easily the best combination of thermodynamics and kinematics the southern/central Plains have seen since the beginning of the month. If I were chasecationing, I'd definitely set up shop somewhere between HYS and BIE -- a couple counties E of the triple point (perhaps CNK) might be ideal. I'd also bring some SPF 35... but we'll see what the high-res models say in a couple hours. Yeah the sounding and hodograph at 0z tomorrow for BIE is very impressive with minimal CIN left at that time. If something can break the cap it could be very rewarding for whoever is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah the sounding and hodograph at 0z tomorrow for BIE is very impressive with minimal CIN left at that time. If something can break the cap it could be very rewarding for whoever is out. The only decent QPF signal seems to be down the dryline in W OK, where both deep-layer and low-level shear will be in short supply. Unfortunately, the 25/00z 4 km WRF-NNM continues this trend. I can only assume this is triggered by a subtle vort max modeled to eject out of Mexico across W TX during the day. With formidable height rises through the course of the afternoon and evening as an accomplice to the 13-15 C at H7, I'll be a bit surprised to see either area (dryline or WF) go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Found this little guy northeast of Lawrence this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The RAP is breaking out a discrete storm on the warm front by 21z tomorrow with this hodograph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The RAP is breaking out a discrete storm on the warm front by 21z tomorrow with this hodograph... I got to say , I still love that sig of yours. Feb 1, 2011 was a dream cyclone. And I miss csnavywx the met, possibly one of the best mets on the board. He seriously needs to post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Sunday and Monday outlooks. Wording is not particularly exciting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Actually, the wording and the 30% sig hatched for Sunday is fairly substantial, do remember that these are D3/4 outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Northwest Texas and the eastern Texas Panhandle are looking a bit more interesting this afternoon. High LCLs but impressive low level wind shear. Might be able to get a brief tornado around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 For today might be a weekend preview near the surface low and warm front intersection in Kansas. Right now it's capped but I expect those low clouds to erode in the strong late May sun. Outflow laid down by KC thundershowers is a plus. Upper levels are not great yet, but maybe a Plains drifter can at least show good structure or put down a rope. I'm expecting a slight for Day 2 Saturday with the Friday afternoon update. Still some uncertainly in the morning Day 2 but latest (12Z) WRF has the QPF they seem to be seeking. Warm front looks somewhat interesting. Gorilla cap noted south of WF. Afternoon/evening jet streak could be tardy, but probably enough kinematics to get the job done locally. Could be a holiday weekend trifecta through the Midwest and Plains if one is willing to travel and be flexible. Sunday should feature the most severe weather overall, but like Sat/Mon tornado target will be local and driven by smaller features such as outflow, WF placement, and DL bulges. Lack of outbreak will require some forecast and chase skill, and of course luck on roads water etc, but it should be doable. Monday will be conditional on storm mode. Might still be just enough mid and upper level winds perpendicular to the front to get discrete action. Just hope a squall line does not roll over everything. I'm out this weekend, but will check in on the thread. Wishing everyone good luck hunting and safe chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Fairly strong QPF signal this morning for areas just barely down the dryline from the triple point, despite mid-level temps on the fringe of what historically represents a nearly-unbreakable cap. Heading out toward the DDC-PTT-RSL triangle in a bit. Latest vis sat and obs suggest the WF may not lift as far as previously expected, and my hunch is that any goodies today will be near or S of I-70. The downside of this is somewhat weaker mid-level flow than what would have been present along the KS/NE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Hopefully we don't end up kicking ourselves for getting a bit of a late start. If we have to could still make the Russel/Pratt corridor by 7 or so. But would have been nice to have a little breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The cloud bases might be a little high, but Kansas looks like fun. Hoping for some YouTube and photo highlights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I got to say , I still love that sig of yours. Feb 1, 2011 was a dream cyclone. And I miss csnavywx the met, possibly one of the best mets on the board. He seriously needs to post more. Oh yeah, I go back from time to time and look at stuff from that event and it amazes me each time. Agree on him having to post more, he knew his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris G Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 We are heading to Kansas. We too had a late start feim Eau Claire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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