baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I am not feeling it...reflecting what others have mentioned already. RAP once again is right...dews are struggling...and MLCAPE is junk. We will have to see if things change...but this could be a mod risk bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 10% Tor probs dropped. Things look very linear right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The only severe storm warning in the country is in New Jersey right now... May 2012, the month of repetitive disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 3:06pm(EST) latest MSD for northwest WI highlights linear-mode with wind and hail as primary threats and further south CINH is higher MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 50-100 NM AHEAD OF FRONT...ATOP WELL-MIXED/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS REGIME...SET AMIDST 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONT...INDICATES QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. STRONGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN N OF MO THROUGH AFTERNOON...WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT. THIS INDICATES ANY CONVECTION S OF IA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT AS INTENSE AS FARTHER N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The only severe storm warning in the country is in New Jersey right now... May 2012, the month of repetitive disappointment. Not if these verify. (EDIT: Wait...that looks like a broken heart) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The only severe storm warning in the country is in New Jersey right now... May 2012, the month of repetitive disappointment. severe thunderstorm warning over Floyd county north-central Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 we're gonna get them storms #woostorms /ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 we're gonna get them storms #woostorms /ellinwood Does it look like a tornado outbreak today, Reed? Never stop chasing! In all seriousness, hope it gets better for you guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Does it look like a tornado outbreak today, Reed? Never stop chasing! In all seriousness, hope it gets better for you guys... he's resorted to posting video from may 24, 2011 tornadoes on his facebook page "while we're waiting on these storms in Wisconsin" very frustrating May all around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The storm about 20 miles west of Eau Claire is getting more intense and likely will be SVR shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Does it look like a tornado outbreak today, Reed? Never stop chasing! In all seriousness, hope it gets better for you guys... I really should market my anti tornado abilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I really should market my anti tornado abilities. Please don't chase Sun/Mon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Just updated my output for Wisconsin area tracking mainly convective winds 55-70 knots across this region, hail looking at around an 1 inch in diameter potential. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Preston, MN storm is actually looking quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Preston, MN storm is actually looking quite nice. Yeah looks like it could go.. Not much low level rotation tho so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Kinematics/low level shear is awesome ahead of these storms...let us see if they can make do with any of the limited CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Definitely going to be a low topped day. The shear out there is incredible...storms are extremely tilted...50 dbz is not even pushing 20k feet on the Preston, MN storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Definitely going to be a low topped day. The shear out there is incredible...storms are extremely tilted...50 dbz is not even pushing 20k feet on the Preston, MN storm. A good example for determining warning thresholds. I am a huge fan of the 50 dBZ height for warning on hail, but in a situation like this it can be misleading. You may not have 50 dBZ topping 20 kft today, but if you were to straighten out that updraft in the vertical it may actually be 35-40 kft. So cross-section and volume products go a long way to helping you see weak echo regions/echo overhang, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The storm near Allison IA looks like it has 1-2" hail. All other warned storms, I would say a 50-100% chance of wind damage in the area. Storm near Lewiston MN doesn't look to be taking on supercell characteristics, although it has sort of the right shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Fountain City ares storm looks to be going outflow dominant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I Just pulled this off the ARX AFD last night, has the shear in fact over whelmed the low cape values, if that's the case who ever wrote this deserves a ata boy/girl. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR STRONG WARMING/ DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. MOST MODELS WITH A RATHER NARROW BAND OF ONLY 500- 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER WESTERN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SHEAR MAY OVERWHELM WHAT COULD BE LIMITED CAPE AND ANY TSRA MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE OR BE TORN APART BY THE STRONG SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 That storm riding the Iowa/Missouri border should be producing near baseball size hail. Really large core of 65+ dBZ aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 That storm riding the Iowa/Missouri border should be producing near baseball size hail. Really large core of 65+ dBZ aloft. Wow. GR3 hail detection is seeing 4" hail. I haven't seen that in a while. It might be a nice day to try out the new dual-pol capabilities in GR3 version 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I Just pulled this off the ARX AFD last night, has the shear in fact over whelmed the low cape values, if that's the case who ever wrote this deserves a ata boy/girl. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR STRONG WARMING/ DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. MOST MODELS WITH A RATHER NARROW BAND OF ONLY 500- 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER WESTERN WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SHEAR MAY OVERWHELM WHAT COULD BE LIMITED CAPE AND ANY TSRA MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE OR BE TORN APART BY THE STRONG SHEAR. great find perhaps premature, but an early post-mortem (this was advertised as potentially "historic" by some) would include: - low cape + too strong shear that rips apart any discrete storms that develop - insufficient dewpoints - a predominantly linear storm organization very early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 vwp wind profiler out of ARX does look promising for naders IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I have mixed feeling over this weekends threat. Saturday would most likely be the higher chance day, if it weren't for the cap. Not getting excited over Sunday, even though it may be in my backyard. Solid linear flow from 925mb to 500mb is disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 On nice cells in IA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 On nice cells in IA now The cell near Waterloo looks prety good on free NWS internet radar, on reflectivity presentation, but not all that great on the radial velocity. Wishing you good luck and excellent pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Highlighting the moisture problems today: compare 12Z NAM forecast sounding valid 21Z (right) vs. 21Z RAP analysis (left), for areas in SW WI east of the IA/MN border. RAP shows Tds around 11 degrees C (52 degrees F) at the surface, whereas NAM shows Tds around 19 degrees C (66 degrees F). Verdict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Highlighting the moisture problems today: compare 12Z NAM forecast sounding valid 21Z (right) vs. 21Z RAP analysis (left), for areas in SW WI. RAP shows Tds around 11 degrees C (52 degrees F) at the surface, whereas NAM shows Tds around 19 degrees C (66 degrees F). Verdict? Verdict is NAM/GFS have been grossly too moist with boundary layer dews and nearly worthless for any type of thermodynamic analysis of storm environments. The good thing is they have been wrong basically every day anywhere north of TX, it seems. Usually whack about 5-10 degrees F off the NAM/GFS, and that will get you to some reasonable value. RAP and ECMWF have been the only useful dewpoint guidance...as well as bias-corrected guidance we have running at the local offices. But I totally agree, they have both been absolutely worthless. GFS has been especially awful. The biggest bomb event was a week or so ago when the GFS was progging dews 20+ degrees too high across the Great Lakes...with CAPE values around 2500 j/kg. Resultant CAPE that afternoon was more around 500-750 j/kg, SPC had a slight that they dropped that afternoon when it became apparent the evapotranspiration was not going to produce anything of the sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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