David Reimer Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 My old chase partner will be in Wisconsin today since he decided to drive all-night from Oklahoma City. Fast storm motions in Arkansas like terrain. There must be some desperate folks out there. I'll be observing today's event from the comfort of my home in Dallas. Next week looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 We are just north of Madison trying to decide if we should play the tail or just south of the low. My desperation is palpable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0633 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF WI...A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...NERN IA...FAR SERN MN...FAR NWRN IL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 241133Z - 241230Z SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL OCCUR FOR A LARGE PART OF WI...A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...NERN IA...FAR SERN MN...AND FAR NWRN IL WITH THE UPCOMING ISSUANCE OF THE 1300 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD SVR WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SQUALL LINE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS LINE WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE PERIOD...AND WILL ALSO FEATURE THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND SVR HAIL. THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR WINDS WILL WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A MODERATE RISK IN THE UPCOMING 1300 UTC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Upgrade to MDT risk! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0887.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 850mb winds pump up to 60-70 knots by tonight on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 not too much on tornado probs.. slight expansion of 10% and 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Today should have some really crappy chasing conditions IMO... Extremely fast storm motions, HP cells, very dangerous winds, and possible chaser crowding in spots due to the small tornado potential maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The MOD is undoubtedly for the wind...slight for tor probs. Going to be interesting to see if anything discrete can develop across NW WI where the flow is backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Storm motions gonna be fast....real fast.... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1041 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 * AT 1040 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WANAMINGO...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF MANTORVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... RED WING... ELLSWORTH... RIVER FALLS... BOMBAY... WANAMINGO... ZUMBROTA... HADER... WASTEDO... GOODHUE... WELCH... HAGER CITY... BAY CITY... DIAMOND BLUFF... ESDAILE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 FWIW, 00z EMC WRF did eventually come in. It basically progs my exact thoughts, with a big big max of updraft helicity in nrn WI and several embedded maxes down the line. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 FWIW, 00z EMC WRF did eventually come in. It basically progs my exact thoughts, with a big big max of updraft helicity in nrn WI and several embedded maxes down the line. http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ If that page is ever behind (which is often), try using their "backup" site: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00_zeus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 We are just north of Madison trying to decide if we should play the tail or just south of the low. My desperation is palpable. There is no reason to be desperate. There are a lot better and safer days coming up soon. Today is an extraordinarily dangerous day to chase. Between the bad terrain, mixed storm modes, likelihood of a couple strong tornadoes, any tornado likely being rain-wrapped, and tornadoes likely being surrounded by 70-90 MPH straight-line winds, oh and trees that could 1) block your visibility and 2) block a necessary escape route if they fall, today has disaster written all over it for chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 If that page is ever behind (which is often), try using their "backup" site: http://www.emc.ncep....pcprod/00_zeus/ The backup didn't update until 0716 UTC. I was already asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The area to the north and west of Madison is terrible for chasing. The driftless area into the Wisconsin and Mississippi river valleys has few if any good sight lines. If the straight line winds get as high as it looks I would caution anyone there because this is a forested area with sandy soil and trees will be coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Yeah the road network in southwest Wisconsin is abominable. The road network is like a plate of spaghetti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 What with the weak chasing season so far, I have a feeling there's gonna be a lllotttt of chasers up there in a not-so-ideal chasing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Looks like a total mess right now. Could change, but i think cloud cover might be a limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN/NRN WI...WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241834Z - 242030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE OVER DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS BECOME ESSENTIALLY SFC-BASED FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF FRONT/BOUNDARY DESCRIBED BELOW. THREAT THEN WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS WI AS EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD NNE TO NE. MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND...WITH SPORADIC HAIL ALSO LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL UPON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. DISCUSSION...18Z SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW NEAR FBL...WITH COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/SWRN IA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ESEWD OVER NRN/CENTRAL IA THROUGH AFTERNOON. SHARPLY DEFINED MESOSCALE BOUNDARY -- RELATED TO PRECIP AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING -- CURVED FROM LOW ENEWD ACROSS SERN MN THEN NNEWD TO JUST NW EAU...TOWARD ERN APOSTLE ISLANDS WI. SRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NWD FROM IA NEARLY IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF SFC LOW...WHILE WI PORTIONS HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS W OF BOUNDARY OVER WI US QUITE STABLE. THIS REGIME...ALONG WITH AXIS OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH BOUNDARY...INDICATE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG BOUNDARY NNEWD OVER NWRN WI. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES PLUME OF LARGE-SCALE/MID-UPPER ASCENT...IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING EJECTING VORTICITY AXIS OVER SRN IA AND NRN MN...AND FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT. RELATED DESTABILIZATION ALOFT APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER POST-FRONTAL AIR IN MN/IA...SOME OF WHICH IS NEARING WARM SECTOR. AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS FCST TO CONTINUE HEATING/DESTABILIZING...WITH SFC TEMPS IN UPPER 80S F AND DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 LEADING TO MINIMAL MLCINH. THIS...COMBINED WITH FRONTAL/BOUNDARY LIFT...WILL LEAD TO BAND OF SFC-BASED TSTMS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY ONCE THAT OCCURS...GIVEN STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO...BUT SLIGHTLY RIGHTWARD OF...WI BOUNDARY. MAIN MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR...BUT WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS...SMALL BOWS AND MESOVORTICES POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 J/KG...SHIFTING NEWD FROM NERN IA...ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT CAN REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. ..EDWARDS/WEISS.. 05/24/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Looking at the RAP (on Twisterdata) it doesn't show CAPE over 1000 J/kg in Wisconsin in the next few hours. I could find only a bit over 750 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 So quiet in here... status updates anyone? Off latest RAP: these cells or other discrete cells in this area moving into higher SRH over western WI, seem like best chance of tornadoes but looks meager right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 High shear, low CAPE wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LAKE SUPERIOR EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF IRONWOOD MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO NWRN/WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES NNEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRONG FORCING AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 sure looks like the mod risk curse of 2012 might live on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 sure looks like the mod risk curse of 2012 might live on Very low tor probs in the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 So quiet in here... status updates anyone? Off latest RAP: these cells or other discrete cells in this area moving into higher SRH over western WI, seem like best chance of tornadoes but looks meager right now. Those cells just got ripped apart by shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Very low tor probs in the watch i think we're still going to play the south end outside the box. no sense in going back north into a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 19Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 and reflecting what we're all seeing, SPC Tor probs went down but 5% area expanded a bit south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 As soon as I saw that MDT this morning and strong tornado wording, first thing I though was "bust". I mean what is this the 3rd time in a row this has happened in a month? Might as well write off the weekend threat as well (jk just being cynical, but it's not a bad bet based on this past month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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