andyhb Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I'd say it's more of a concern on Saturday rather than Sunday, keep in mind that convergence along the dryline on Saturday could also work with the high sfc temps to overcome the cap, but I'll admit I didn't take that hard of a look at the 700 mb temps, I'm just happy that the ridge isn't completely squashing this thing now like it did in several previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I don't know about that, check out how warm the 700mb temps are, in my own chasing experience tthroughout the years once you get into those double digits there is a very high probability of a cap bust. 10-11°C is typically doable late spring/summer with enough forcing and PBL temp/moisture. 12-13°C on up is when real problems tend to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Just pushed out an overwatch analysis for the NE-MN areas. Added a different analysis page with the cities. Tracking mostly convective gusts between 45-61 kts across the MN regions and 40-50 across the NE-Western Iowa areas. Fresh charts http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Day 5 outlook issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Pushed out another update. Tracking convective gust potential of 80-90 knots over eastern Nebraska areas and 50 to 60 across the Minnesota areas with hail up to 1.5. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Storm near Bee, NE looking quite nice now. Edit: Warned now THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 704 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BEE...OR 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 KCTV5 ChaserTV stream showing rotating wall cloud with inflow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Several of the 18z GFS ensemble members really ramp up the sfc low more than the OP on Sunday, would certainly be interesting if the winds ended up backing more than the OP suggests... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Several of the 18z GFS ensemble members really ramp up the sfc low more than the OP on Sunday, would certainly be interesting if the winds ended up backing more than the OP suggests... What do you think about tomorrows threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Baro already essentially said what I was going to say in Ian/Ellinwood/WxWarrior's chase thread...the wind profiles are certainly impressive. Could definitely be a nice low CAPE (although enough for potentially more robust development as mentioned in the most recent D2 outlook), high shear event. Storm motions will be pretty off the charts though with 55-80 kt winds at 700 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Storm near Omaha looks pretty nice with decent hook. Don't see much rotation with it though. Maybe some on the last scan though. Edit: Wall cloud reported via Steve Blum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I can't see moisture not being a problem this weekend. Boundary layer dewpoints are almost certainly overdone by at least 5F. Upper-level cirrus might also be a problem (and for some reason, the two often go hand-in-hand). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Decent cell east of Lamar, Co is about to enter Kansas. Packing a punch and it's in a pretty isolated area. Some definite rotation showing up on RADAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I can't see moisture not being a problem this weekend. Boundary layer dewpoints are almost certainly overdone by at least 5F. Upper-level cirrus might also be a problem (and for some reason, the two often go hand-in-hand). I'm not seeing how any of these upcoming days materializes into something respectable by late May standards, barring some 5/19-esque fluke. Saturday was the only synoptic setup I could get excited about, and the combination of poor moisture and major capping concerns will almost certainly marginalize it. Sunday is too cold fronty for a spectacular chase day, but may nonetheless be our best shot, little as that's saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'm not seeing how any of these upcoming days materializes into something respectable by late May standards, barring some 5/19-esque fluke. Saturday was the only synoptic setup I could get excited about, and the combination of poor moisture and major capping concerns will almost certainly marginalize it. Sunday is too cold fronty for a spectacular chase day, but may nonetheless be our best shot, little as that's saying. Saturday looks like junk, cap from hell. GFS was trying to somehow generate storms near the warm front across northern NE...likely related to its grossly high dews. Sunday definitely looks like the best day. If the cap can be breached along the dryline across NW Kansas...could be some interesting weather given the progged low level shear/helicity fields by the GFS. Its dews looks reasonable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 The storm to the west of Garden City KS needs some version of a warning on it with the meso it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Hastings CWA getting rolled right now. Just left work with nothing to worry about while our neighbor to the SE gets lit up like a Christmas tree. The PV ejecting the Rockies is forcing a strong coupled upper jet and impressive mid level frontogenesis. The low level front is feeding in some impressive theta-e. This could be an all night show down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Lawls, Reed Timmer going bonkers on the threat for tomorrow: Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser · 135,155 like this3 minutes ago · I really think tomorrow could be a historic tornado outbreak in Wisconsin/western U.P. of Michigan. Have been analyzing the models extensively on this drive and feel very confident in this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Lawls, Reed Timmer going bonkers on the threat for tomorrow: Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser · 135,155 like this3 minutes ago · I really think tomorrow could be a historic tornado outbreak in Wisconsin/western U.P. of Michigan. Have been analyzing the models extensively on this drive and feel very confident in this forecast. Was just going to post about this... Historic seems like a bold call, but there certainly is a lot of potential if it all comes together right. I am still worried about the marginal CAPE even in the presence of such impressive kinematic fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I don't follow him a ton but it seems to me like Reed rarely sees a setup he doesn't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 FWIW, if there's enough balance between instability, forcing, and shear (i.e. enough instability to overcome shear given the amount of forcing), I think he's right. Up there, a "historic" outbreak doesn't exactly mean quite the same as it means on the plains or even in the lower lakes, but with the insane wind profiles, something icky might happen tomorrow up there, again given that there is indeed enough instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 This threat tomorrow was actualy pretty well modeled from the long range. It's shifted a by but not a ton. I hope the 18 hr marathon drive pays off in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 This threat tomorrow was actualy pretty well modeled from the long range. It's shifted a by but not a ton. I hope the 18 hr marathon drive pays off in some way. Good luck tomorrow. I know you guys are hell-bent on getting the heat of it, but please be careful. Terrain gets extraordinarily dicey N of the Wisconsin River. If you can get a good vantage point tomorrow, it may pay dividends, but boy oh boy are you in for a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'm 50/50 on whether or not i'll be chasing tomorrow. If I do I will stay south of La Crosse, in NE. IA and SW. WI. We'll see how it looks tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 FWIW, if there's enough balance between instability, forcing, and shear (i.e. enough instability to overcome shear given the amount of forcing), I think he's right. Up there, a "historic" outbreak doesn't exactly mean quite the same as it means on the plains or even in the lower lakes, but with the insane wind profiles, something icky might happen tomorrow up there, again given that there is indeed enough instability. I am just worried about dews. GFS/NAM has been worthless as of lately with respect to boundary layer moisture. RAP superior minus a slight dry bias. Seems like a narrow window across NW WI tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'm impressed with Reed Timmer's decisions lately. First off, he was one of the very few that got good footage the only tornadic storm on Tuesday. Secondly, surprisingly, he didn't chase on Wednesday, which no tornadoes formed. So if tomorrow can produce tornadoes in the given area, he would be on a damn good roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Also keep in mind storm motions tomorrow. They will be unGodly, unlike anything you've ever chased before. Some storms will likely be moving 65-75 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I am just worried about dews. GFS/NAM has been worthless as of lately with respect to boundary layer moisture. RAP superior minus a slight dry bias. Seems like a narrow window across NW WI tomorrow. One thing that will certainly be on their side is advection. Yeah, the better moisture is pretty far south. But when your 925 mb winds are 50kt and your 850mb winds are 60kt, moisture advection suddenly seems quite easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Good luck tomorrow. I know you guys are hell-bent on getting the heat of it, but please be careful. Terrain gets extraordinarily dicey N of the Wisconsin River. If you can get a good vantage point tomorrow, it may pay dividends, but boy oh boy are you in for a challenge. I think the worst that will happen is we won't see much. I'm not really worried about a tornado running us over or something. Jason and Mark chased the high risk in NC last yr which probably had slower motions but was a pretty complex chase. It's not necessarily what Id be looking for and maybe not worth it if it was not 'on the way' and with how this yr has gone you take what you can get... Tho I do have reasonable hope in the next week, pessimism by those who can pick and choose aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I'm impressed with Reed Timmer's decisions lately. First off, he was one of the very few that got good footage the only tornadic storm on Tuesday. Secondly, surprisingly, he didn't chase on Wednesday, which no tornadoes formed. So if tomorrow can produce tornadoes in the given area, he would be on a damn good roll. TIV got a tornado today i think... Tho it was not that impressive of a day at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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