baroclinic_instability Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Big worry for tomorrow...I don't think there will be a chance for a cap bust given the linear forcing along the advancing cold front, but high clouds and cruddy moisture could make it a highly isolated event. RAP once again returning junk moisture...has substantial CAP that even cold front would have trouble lifting parcels through. Even then LCL-LFC RH going to be very low...interesting to see how tomorrow unfolds. Tor threat minimal it seems, but then weirder things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Latest thought's from the SPC, large hail is the biggest threat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 00z ECMWF came in much drier...suggestive of a very inhibiting cap. If ECMWF/RAP are right...dewpoint pooling near the warm front will keep threat farther N along the Canadian border into northern ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 ugh the 0z euro looks awful late in the run.. fortunately there is still no run to run consistency past like d3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 GFS looks depressing long range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 GFS looks depressing long range as well. it would probably be worth getting more bent out of shape over if the models were right at day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Thanks for the answer, that was a good explanation, so one more question, if I can. If cape values were around 2000, what would happen to the EHI values, would they grow at a steady pace, or would they grow exponentially? No problem. I think the formula is 0-x km EHI = C * (0 - x km SHR) * ( MLCAPE) where C is a normalizing constant. so if you increase CAPE from say 1000 to 2000 j/kg, you double EHI values. The fractional increase in EHI is proportional to the fractional increase in CAPE. - John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 00z ECMWF came in much drier...suggestive of a very inhibiting cap. If ECMWF/RAP are right...dewpoint pooling near the warm front will keep threat farther N along the Canadian border into northern ND. Baro, what are your thoughts on a strong to severe MCS moving across southern MB tonight? From what I see, things are looking really good up here. Warm front is nearby with 1,500-2,000 J/KG of MUCAPE by late evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 No problem. I think the formula is 0-x km EHI = C * (0 - x km SHR) * ( MLCAPE) where C is a normalizing constant. so if you increase CAPE from say 1000 to 2000 j/kg, you double EHI values. The fractional increase in EHI is proportional to the fractional increase in CAPE. - John Yep, with C = 1/160,000. Since J/kg == m2/s2, doubling either of them doubles the EHI following a linear relationship with both SRH and CAPE essentially having the "same" units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 SPC added a sliver of 30% hatched for tomorrow across Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Tornado watch issued for ND. TORNADO WATCH 290 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NDC003-005-009-013-015-023-027-031-039-043-049-055-057-059-061- 063-065-069-071-075-079-083-093-095-101-103-105-230400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0290.120522T2105Z-120523T0400Z/ ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURKE BURLEIGH DIVIDE EDDY FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Greg Johnson @canadogreg Confirmed TORNADO on storm headed toward ESTEVAN #SASK - Extremely dangerous storm. GET UNDERGROUND - CALL FRIENDS/FAMILY in ESTEVAN Retweeted by The Weather Network looks like the first warnings of the day are north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Can't see a lot from either the Minot or Regina radars, rather large radar hole in SE Saskatchewan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 According to Reed Timmer, he's seen/intercepted multiple tornadoes on those cells. They seem to be taking a more easterly trajectory as of late. More cells organizing west/northwest of Minot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Can't see a lot from either the Minot or Regina radars, rather large radar hole in SE Saskatchewan. try the next one over near foxwarren (near brandon). the storm is moving towards there, and is at least on the long range scans. very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 According to Reed Timmer, he's seen/intercepted multiple tornadoes on those cells. Narrow instibility axis of 500-1500 J/KG, LCL's sub 1000M, high SRH values and on the Theta-E gradient...so it's a nice little environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The developing supercell east of Stanley, ND is in a nice environment too...Right in the vicinity of the dryline/warm front, with a nice Theta-E pool and moisture convergence. Edit: Now tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Wall cloud and a huge base on that storm from Ben McMillan's cam... Edit: Funnel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The 12z/18z GFS both look great for the later week threat, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Funnel dissapated, wonder if it made contact. Reed reporting 5-6 tornadoes, one "Campo like". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Palermo storm looks very nice on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 The 12z/18z GFS both look great for the later week threat, FWIW... Looks like an interesting weekend is possible for the plains maybe eastward. Parameters look decent and some nice dryline bulges too. My only concern would me maybe the dewpoints/moisture moisture being overdone considering the East Coast ridging in place during that time frame? Gonna try to wait for some more consistency before I get too exited, but it looks promising. Bears watching over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Looks like an interesting weekend is possible for the plains maybe eastward. Parameters look decent and some nice dryline bulges too. My only concern would me maybe the dewpoints/moisture moisture being overdone considering the East Coast ridging in place during that time frame? Gonna try to wait for some more consistency before I get too exited, but it looks promising. Bears watching over the next few days. East coast ridging is usually good for moisture return into the Plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Ah good to know. I got a long way to go with my forcasting/model reading skills still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 East coast ridging is usually good for moisture return into the Plains... True east coast ridging good, Midwest ridging with a height weakness along the southeast coast not so much. The GFS and Euro still manage to pull >65 F Td's into SE SD by Saturday afternoon, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 00z NAM if you were to extrapolate it out looks fun, considering it has a similar setup to the 12z/18z GFS at the end of its run and with a stronger mid/upper level jet streak embedded within the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 One of the apparent tors Timmer and Co. captured this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Tomorrow doesn't look like anything special and Friday looks capped IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 00z GFS continues a good looking trend for the weekend, with a non-thermonuclear cap on both days, although I'd like to see better convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 00z GFS continues a good looking trend for the weekend, with a non-thermonuclear cap on both days. I don't know about that, check out how warm the 700mb temps are, in my own chasing experience tthroughout the years once you get into those double digits there is a very high probability of a cap bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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