Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Just joined yesterday, and he's already made a name for himself. Not a good sign. He may be a genius.. that will come out over time. However, he said SW OK which did not produce as it was stable all day. Being "close" works if you can drive to it but otherwise it does not indicate anything. Calling bust before initiation is expected is a pretty silly thing to do regardless of whether it ends up busting or not... Given the amount of really well known chasers both private and gov who were in NW OK I'm guessing there was a reason to be there initially. All weather is humbling but if you really want to feel like you have no clue convection (or lack of) can get you there pretty quick. SPC is made up of some serious pros.. I'd personally be really cautious about getting on their case too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 You're a pretty bad poster even for a n00b. Try harder. And I'm bad how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 He may be a genius.. that will come out over time. However, he said SW OK which did not produce as it was stable all day. Being "close" works if you can drive to it but otherwise it does not indicate anything. Calling bust before initiation is expected is a pretty silly thing to do regardless of whether it ends up busting or not... Given the amount of really well known chasers both private and gov who were in NW OK I'm guessing there was a reason to be there initially. All weather is humbling but if you really want to feel like you have no clue convection (or lack of) can get you there pretty quick. SPC is made up of some serious pros.. I'd personally be really cautious about getting on their case too much. Despite I said I would "probably" Target SW OK eventually I would have realized (esp. With wave clouds) that nothing was going to happen in SW OK, and would have gone to NW OK (only to see no Discrete Supercells, just a really nice Bow Echo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Interesting to see STWs for an outflow boundary. Think this all came together a bit late to hit max potential perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Interesting to see STWs for an outflow boundary. Think this all came together a bit late to hit max potential perhaps. Pretty impressive outflow boundary though. I've seen warnings for OFB's before, but I don't know if I've seen one like this where its a huge area so far removed from the main MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Interesting to see STWs for an outflow boundary. Think this all came together a bit late to hit max potential perhaps. Correct me if im wrong but... Unfortunately, I think it would have lived up to full potential, but the Atmosphere (esp. In Western OK) was never really able to recover from the 29th... It did in Kansas what it was supposed to be doing now in Oklahoma, at least it seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I was on the southeast side of Wichita when that bow came through. Scariest storm I have been in because I thought the truck was going to flip over or something. It started out a light wind and rain then suddenly became zero visibility. The roads were packed and cars were stopped unexpectedly on the road while other cars sped up to try to find shelter. We didn't know if anyone was going to hit us or what was going to happen. It also started hailing about marbles to quarters. The wind, rain, and hail made a horrifying noise and then add in all the lighting flashes etc. No idea how strong the winds were, but you couldn't see one foot in front of the windshield for a couple of minutes. Afterwards, there were lots of large tree branches down and some sign damage. Power also went out briefly where we were, but many areas were in the dark for a long time. Also the rain never quit so the roads turned into rivers and cars were stalling. We were originally in central Oklahoma since last night, but we had to drive back to Topeka to unexpectedly change vehicles so I guess it worked out. We were originally on that Wichita supercell, but ditched it near Atlanta to go sit through the line of storms. Last night we were also on that line of supercells in Oklahoma. One supercell over Ringwood had a huge mothership wall cloud over town that had all kinds of scary rotation. We then got stuck in a golf ball sized hail storm that came in two rounds. It might have been two storms, but the cell service went down after the first storm so we had to wait it out. Hail fell for at least thirty consecutive minutes in total. It was cool watching everyone scatter like rats in the middle of no where looking for any available shelter. On the second round we ended up in someones carport. It's really amazing how often it hails here. Some small storm with a few rain drops is suddenly producing mass amounts of hail. Only seen a couple of dimes or so in Ontario, but down here seems like any and every storm is giving out hail like charity. I can't believe how businesses and homes down here don't have some kind of canopy to protect their vehicles from the hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Fun chase in NW TX this afternoon. I ended up just west of Childress on the first TW cell before I bailed for the second cell (further SE). I was a few miles south of a large tornado, but never saw anything visually. Inflow winds were pretty nuts with 45-55 MPH common and a substantial amount of blowing dust. I'll look at video later today to see if I ended up capturing a rain-wrapped tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I was on the southeast side of Wichita when that bow came through. Scariest storm I have been in because I thought the truck was going to flip over or something. It started out a light wind and rain then suddenly became zero visibility. The roads were packed and cars were stopped unexpectedly on the road while other cars sped up to try to find shelter. We didn't know if anyone was going to hit us or what was going to happen. It also started hailing about marbles to quarters. The wind, rain, and hail made a horrifying noise and then add in all the lighting flashes etc. No idea how strong the winds were, but you couldn't see one foot in front of the windshield for a couple of minutes. Afterwards, there were lots of large tree branches down and some sign damage. Power also went out briefly where we were, but many areas were in the dark for a long time. Also the rain never quit so the roads turned into rivers and cars were stalling. We were originally in central Oklahoma since last night, but we had to drive back to Topeka to unexpectedly change vehicles so I guess it worked out. We were originally on that Wichita supercell, but ditched it near Atlanta to go sit through the line of storms. Last night we were also on that line of supercells in Oklahoma. One supercell over Ringwood had a huge mothership wall cloud over town that had all kinds of scary rotation. We then got stuck in a golf ball sized hail storm that came in two rounds. It might have been two storms, but the cell service went down after the first storm so we had to wait it out. Hail fell for at least thirty consecutive minutes in total. It was cool watching everyone scatter like rats in the middle of no where looking for any available shelter. On the second round we ended up in someones carport. It's really amazing how often it hails here. Some small storm with a few rain drops is suddenly producing mass amounts of hail. Only seen a couple of dimes or so in Ontario, but down here seems like any and every storm is giving out hail like charity. I can't believe how businesses and homes down here don't have some kind of canopy to protect their vehicles from the hail. Nothing to stop the wind but some fence posts before you get to the Rio Grande. As for the hail, that's what insurance is for. I get a new roof every 4-5 years Jeff Piotrowski has been on a hot streak lately. It seems like no matter where he goes, he gets a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Wicked gravity waves showing up on NEXRAD; meso features and outflow all over the place too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 09Z Update: Tracking Potential severe weather across the Lufkin area. Potential to see winds up to 70 mph and hail up to 1". In addtion areas around Fort Polk, Alexandria, and Memorial Fld, AR will see Strong Thunderstorm passing through in the next 6-12 hours. Details viewable: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Still tracking some severe weather across the Texas area, especially between the Dallas to Waco to Corsicana area. Seeing potential for winds up around 60mph, hail up to 1" and some heavy rainfall. Concerned for the Waco, TX region. posted lasted Waco output, looking for winds up to 70 mph and heavy rain fall in the next 1-2 hours. Waco Output: http://smartwxmodel.net/2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 311447Z - 311545Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TX IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE LINE MOVING SEWD INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MLCAPE IS IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...AN AXIS OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ACROSS SE TX IN THE 25 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN DEVELOP A PERSISTENT BOWING STRUCTURE. ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/31/2012 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 101 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN TEXAS... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KATY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A FUNNEL AT GRAND PARKWAY AT FM 1253. TAKE COVER NOW. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MISSION BEND AND PECAN GROVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Upgrade for TX panhandle tomorrow! Maybe a structure day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Upgrade for TX panhandle tomorrow! Maybe a structure day. Wouldn't be surprised one bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised one bit... it's looked like the play but thought might not have enough for it till Sat. Shear looks like it might be just enough for supercells tho. Could be the zone thru Sunday at least. Terrain is awesome here. There's flat then there's see the curve of the earth flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 it's looked like the play but thought might not have enough for it till Sat. Shear looks like it might be just enough for supercells tho. Could be the zone thru Sunday at least. Terrain is awesome here. There's flat then there's see the curve of the earth flat. Sort of why I suggested to Jake to head W. Besides, plenty of tumbleweeds and barbed wire fence with silos for those EC first time Southern Plains chasers to see. The views are spectacular as you well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUAHusker Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Brett was just saying on fb structure of the year near Bridge Creek. Sorry that this is a couple days old, but I managed to get a shot of the Bridge Creek supercell. It was completely dark at the time, so the image is a bit noisy. But you get the picture... Incredible mothership structure. http://www.facebook....&type=3 Also managed to get the beginning of the Piedmont tornado. Pardon the language, and shakiness of the cam. I was trying to manage a digital camera, Video Camera, and my Video Stream all at the same time.. At first I was thinking it was just a gustnado but I quickly realized that was not the case once it crossed the road and got a bit behind me... It eventually formed a cone, but I was not in good position once it became rain wrapped. Note to self...Next time you are in the bears cage, retreat a bit. ha... Overall it was a fun chase day. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Walker Ashley's timelapse of yesterday, simply amazing. http://vimeo.com/43191188 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Walker Ashley's timelapse of yesterday, simply amazing. My jaw actually dropped. That rotation in the upper levels of the supercell...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 As for the Central Plains and Western States for the next 10 days. With the omega block trying to set in I see chances in two area's, one being the Northern Plain states of the Dakotas. The other area being the front range area, and possibly as far east as western Nebraska, the one thing that seems to lacking is higher dew points, but may have to settle for 60° or so. Up here in the Upper Mississippi Valley although never zero it looks awful close to it. Any thoughts pros and cons would be appreciated. While tonight's runs of the GFS and the Nam looks like they want to bring at least of chance of precip into south central MN on Sunday evening, the Euro has been consistent on keeping it in far south western MN. The difference IMO is that the American models want to move the upper level system over the NE out to sea much more early than what I think is probable, I think it will hold back as the Euro depicts it. That should basically weaken the system as it moves into our area and drop what ever remains to the SW mainly impacting sw MN with light QPF'S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 If the GFS should be close to verifying look at the cape values over Southern MN. It certainly has heightened my interest. But again I doubt this we come to fruition. Relative Helecity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I'm still mildly interested in the TX Panhandle extending into the front range and SW KS over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0352 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS...NERN NM...WRN OK...THE TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335... VALID 012052Z - 012145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF WW 335...AND THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL IS INCREASING. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR AND SE OF A SFC TROUGH/WIND-SHIFT AXIS ARCING FROM WRN KS INTO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM TOWERING CUMULUS ONGOING ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z AMARILLO RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC OBS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WW AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY RELATIVELY LESS OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL AND SWRN OK INVOF COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES COINCIDING WITH REMNANT BILLOW CLOUDS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIABATIC HEATING WEST OF A MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD MAY BOOST INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE...AND 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW...SVR HAIL -- SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- AND SVR WIND ARE ANTICIPATED. AS STORMS TRACK SEWD/SSEWD INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY OCCUR WITH MERGING COLD POOLS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE SVR WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE. ..COHEN.. 06/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 This is all pulsing so far. Not sure were going to get a solid supercell today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 I haven't looked at any model guidance for Saturday as I planned to enjoy my first weekend being 21 years old, but I note SPC has introduced hatching in NW TX along with the words supercells and warm front. I might have to head on out northwest again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 Cell in NW TX panhandle is pretty nice right now. Road network not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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