OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Nah, GR3. If you or anyone else has Level 2 data and can confirm those velocities from around 2310 I'd appreciate it. Taking a look I saw an 80 in, 80 out before it cycled. That's a healthy TVS. Even looking at a satellite image you could successfully warn on this cell. Huge backsheared anvil, that updraft has some punch to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 642 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 637 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRUSCOTT. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RESIDENTS NEAR TRUSCOTT AND NORTH OF BENJAMIN SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BENJAMIN...GILLILAND AND TRUSCOTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I swear that if you stare at the visible loop long enough, you can see the overshooting top rotating too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 TOG with the southern storm east of San Angelo: 650 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN CONCHO AND SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES... AT 647 PM CDT... A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK! RESIDENTS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ARE URGED TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Nice cell taking shape just behind the Red River tornado warned cell. Probably going to have its own TOR shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Quad County chasers reporting large tornado near Truscott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 712 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... CENTRAL CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 706 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLERSVIEW...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ARE URGED TO TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Latest HRRR shows what looks to be a nice outflow boundary setting up tomorrow morning NW of Huston, just about where the 15% hatched area is for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 80 kts at 200 ft on the evolving MCS in S. KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 @JimCantore Powerflashes 6 mi west of Greensburg, KS from straight line winds. That would be some powerful straight line winds!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 @JimCantore Powerflashes 6 mi west of Greensburg, KS from straight line winds. That would be some powerful straight line winds!!! A Storm Chaser measured 74 MPH winds in that area a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 TSA's updated Hazardous Weather Outlook is pretty aggressive: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING TO DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...WITH ALSO A HAIL THREAT INCLUDED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Update, tracking Chanute, Arkansas City, Ponca City with the highest threat of severe weather. Potential for convective gust up to 82 mph, Hail up to 1.1", and still seeing 64.6% chance of F1 type tornado possible through next 4-5 hours. In addition, Tulsa, Bartlesville area looking at severe wx in next 4-6 hours with winds up to 82 mph and Hail up to 1.4" http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Looks like a possible derecho is getting started now in southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. Really starting to get the classic structure with a cold pool well underway. Plenty of instability and moisture are streaming up into the complex. The combination of this and moderate wind shear should aid in a long lived derecho event across much of Oklahoma. Wouldn't be surprised to start seeing 80mph+ winds once this thing matures. With high PWAT values and a fair amount of DCAPE, high momentum downdrafts are likely. Large hail is a real concern to esp with embedded supercells in the line. Some isolated tornadoes are def not out of the question along the bowing MCS, esp if any type of MCV develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Expansion of MOD in 1Z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 This is why calling a bust before 8pm is never good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 This is why calling a bust before 8pm is never good. Definitely tho they got western OK wrong and parts of TX. Still the mod risk was generally well placed it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I guess I was wrong the MDT risk didn't Bust with a Derecho underway/ about to start... But overall I was right with (if I were chasing) starting off in SW OK, considering the Dual-Supercells in the Southeastern TX Panhandle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Definitely tho they got western OK wrong and parts of TX. Still the mod risk was generally well placed it seems. Well busting in the sense that some areas got more than expected is different than what was being discussed earlier in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I guess I was wrong the MDT risk didn't Bust with a Derecho underway/ about to start... But overall I was right with (if I were chasing) starting off in SW OK, considering the Dual-Supercells in the Southeastern TX Panhandle... That's twisted logic since nothing happened in SW Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Well busting in the sense that some areas got more than expected is different than what was being discussed earlier in here. I never get on SPC much for busting.. Convection is probably harder to forecast than any other weather. The 10% was questionable tho mesoscale issues cropped up overnight into the morning it seems. But agree wholeheartedly that its silly to call bust at 1pm especially when one happens to be an anon weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable. Call bust at noon for the Mid Atlantic on Friday please, lol. Seems whenever people call for a bust too early, the events always seem to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Apparently saying something at 3:00 means you said it at 1:00? And having to drive 50 miles (give or take 10miles) from your original target isn't bad at ALL... (It's better than setting up in NW OK and not seeing ANYTHING until 10PM. EDIT: My bad I posted that at 2:00, I guess I'll remember not to call a bust at 2:00 when something was expected to be an Evening event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Apparently saying something at 3:00 means you said it at 1:00? And having to drive 50 miles (give or take 10miles) from your original target isn't bad at ALL... (It's better than setting up in NW OK and not seeing ANYTHING until 10PM. EDIT: My bad I posted that at 2:00, I guess I'll remember not to call a bust at 2:00 when something was expected to be an Evening event.. You're a pretty bad poster even for a n00b. Try harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Thoughts on the cell to the W of Austin, TX, all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 You're a pretty bad poster even for a n00b. Try harder. Just joined yesterday, and he's already made a name for himself. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 04Z Update: Tracking Tulsa, Enid, and Stillwater looking at 80 mph and Hail around 1", additionally heavy rainfall up to an inch is also expected. http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Big outflow gust front visible on radar. Doesn't look as great as it did on radar before. Wouldn't expect this to peter out so soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable. Not to be rude, but not every event produces tornadoes like the one in your avatar (it seems at times as though you almost expect this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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