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May 22-? Severe weather


MNstorms

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Nah, GR3. If you or anyone else has Level 2 data and can confirm those velocities from around 2310 I'd appreciate it.

Taking a look I saw an 80 in, 80 out before it cycled. That's a healthy TVS.

Even looking at a satellite image you could successfully warn on this cell. Huge backsheared anvil, that updraft has some punch to it.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

642 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO WAS

LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRUSCOTT. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RESIDENTS NEAR TRUSCOTT AND NORTH OF BENJAMIN

SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BENJAMIN...GILLILAND AND TRUSCOTT.

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TOG with the southern storm east of San Angelo:

650 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR

NORTHEASTERN CONCHO AND SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM CDT... A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

PAINT ROCK! RESIDENTS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ARE URGED TO TAKE

SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

712 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

CENTRAL CONCHO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 706 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLERSVIEW...OR

8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAINT ROCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO ARE URGED TO TAKE SHELTER

IMMEDIATELY!

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TSA's updated Hazardous Weather Outlook is pretty aggressive:

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD

FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE

REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING TO

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THESE STORMS MOVE

THROUGH...WITH ALSO A HAIL THREAT INCLUDED. PERIODS OF HEAVY

RAINFALL WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH

COULD CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.

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Update, tracking Chanute, Arkansas City, Ponca City with the highest threat of severe weather. Potential for convective gust up to 82 mph, Hail up to 1.1", and still seeing 64.6% chance of F1 type tornado possible through next 4-5 hours. In addition, Tulsa, Bartlesville area looking at severe wx in next 4-6 hours with winds up to 82 mph and Hail up to 1.4"

http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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Looks like a possible derecho is getting started now in southern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. Really starting to get the classic structure with a cold pool well underway. Plenty of instability and moisture are streaming up into the complex. The combination of this and moderate wind shear should aid in a long lived derecho event across much of Oklahoma. Wouldn't be surprised to start seeing 80mph+ winds once this thing matures. With high PWAT values and a fair amount of DCAPE, high momentum downdrafts are likely. Large hail is a real concern to esp with embedded supercells in the line. Some isolated tornadoes are def not out of the question along the bowing MCS, esp if any type of MCV develops

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This is why calling a bust before 8pm is never good.

Definitely tho they got western OK wrong and parts of TX. Still the mod risk was generally well placed it seems.

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I guess I was wrong the MDT risk didn't Bust with a Derecho underway/ about to start... But overall I was right with (if I were chasing) starting off in SW OK, considering the Dual-Supercells in the Southeastern TX Panhandle...

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Definitely tho they got western OK wrong and parts of TX. Still the mod risk was generally well placed it seems.

Well busting in the sense that some areas got more than expected is different than what was being discussed earlier in here.

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I guess I was wrong the MDT risk didn't Bust with a Derecho underway/ about to start... But overall I was right with (if I were chasing) starting off in SW OK, considering the Dual-Supercells in the Southeastern TX Panhandle...

That's twisted logic since nothing happened in SW Oklahoma.

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Well busting in the sense that some areas got more than expected is different than what was being discussed earlier in here.

I never get on SPC much for busting.. Convection is probably harder to forecast than any other weather. The 10% was questionable tho mesoscale issues cropped up overnight into the morning it seems. But agree wholeheartedly that its silly to call bust at 1pm especially when one happens to be an anon weenie

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Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable.

Call bust at noon for the Mid Atlantic on Friday please, lol. Seems whenever people call for a bust too early, the events always seem to pan out.

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Apparently saying something at 3:00 means you said it at 1:00? And having to drive 50 miles (give or take 10miles) from your original target isn't bad at ALL... (It's better than setting up in NW OK and not seeing ANYTHING until 10PM.

EDIT: My bad I posted that at 2:00, I guess I'll remember not to call a bust at 2:00 when something was expected to be an Evening event..

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Apparently saying something at 3:00 means you said it at 1:00? And having to drive 50 miles (give or take 10miles) from your original target isn't bad at ALL... (It's better than setting up in NW OK and not seeing ANYTHING until 10PM.

EDIT: My bad I posted that at 2:00, I guess I'll remember not to call a bust at 2:00 when something was expected to be an Evening event..

You're a pretty bad poster even for a n00b. Try harder.

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Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable.

Not to be rude, but not every event produces tornadoes like the one in your avatar (it seems at times as though you almost expect this).

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