Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Current TOR warned cell could track close to Childress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Dual-pol confirms significant hail is likely in there. When CCs are getting that low, it is starting to become pretty large hail. 2" hail just reported in the area. Nice call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Awesome wall cloud in Ric Burney cam chaserTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Current TOR warned cell could track close to Childress Darned close to/barely South of CDS, and zoomed in on free enhanced NWS radar, very ominous on reflectivity presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0452 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 302152Z - 302315Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A DISTINCT GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F. MEANWHILE...SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MID 60S F DEWPOINTS...CREATING EXTREME INSTABILITY WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT. THE TURNING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND DESPITE MARGINAL T/TD SPREADS INITIALLY....A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR BENEATH THESE SUPERCELLS. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2012 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Parts of the tornao watch were not even in the slight risk in the 20z outlook and most had less then 2% TOR probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 410 PM CST WED MAY 30 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE STARTING TO FORM ALONG ARCED DRY LINE OVER ERN PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WRN HILL COUNTRY/BIG COUNTRY. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A RELATIVELY MOIST /AVERAGE SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S F/ BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF ENHANCED WLY MID-UPR LVL FLOW /AOA 40 KTS AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE STORMS TO MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MULTI-COUNTY CLUSTERS. IF SUCH A SCENARIO UNFOLDS...EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY EXTEND THE SVR THREAT SSEWD THROUGH LATE EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Interesting to see all the activity in Texas where the gravity waves early in the day were so evident... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I wonder if this low-correlation coefficient area on this storm (south of Colby KS) is tornado debris. It is close to the mesocyclone/couplet on the storm. I just learned about the dual-pol stuff, so I don't know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 533 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 531 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS 9 MILES WEST OF LAKE ABILENE...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACKWELL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME ROADS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE U.S. HIGHWAY 277. IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE... LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING. * THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR... LAKE ABILENE BY 600 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 535 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. SOUTHWESTERN CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TELL...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 531 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINONA...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF WINONA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 So far all of the activity is avoiding the MDT risk area... Might be able to get some reports in there when the KS stuff transitions to mainly wind damage and propagates south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Update: still tracking Woodward and Russell, KS with the highest tornadic threats. Severe wx threats also high around Wichita, Salina, Garden City, Gage, and Enid. Still seeing over 62.2% probability of F1 tornadoes, 50.3% of F2 type tornadoes. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I wonder if this low-correlation coefficient area on this storm (south of Colby KS) is tornado debris. It is close to the mesocyclone/couplet on the storm. I just learned about the dual-pol stuff, so I don't know for sure. Taking a look at it, it seems to me like there could be a little beam filling issue occurring with that cell, not quite NBF but probably a rain/hail mixture resulting in low CC. Since the feature is sort of linear in nature and moves with the storm, that would be my guess. For those curious, NBF (non-uniform beam filling) occurs when the radar beam volume samples a gradient of precipitation types (i.e. hail, then rain and hail, then rain as you transition down through the volume). Each p-type affects the phase shift of the power differently (with liquid water creating the greatest shift). So when different parts of the beam experience different phase shifts, you will get a large wedge of very low CC down radial from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 If anything is on the ground, Ballinger TX is in it's path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 This supercell is as violent as it can get near Swearingen TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 302247Z - 310015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER WRN OK...WITH MAINLY AN HAIL AND WIND THREAT. A NARROW N/S WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN/SWRN OK...E OF THE TX ACTIVITY WHERE CAPPING HAS BEEN LOCALLY BREACHED. THESE STORMS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND NWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL FAVOR SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 25 F...DUE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE THIS EVENING WITH A PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME HIGHER THETA-E OVER NWRN TX. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 172-kt couplet on lowest level SRVs just a minute ago. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Glad that thing is out in the middle of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Decided to play in NW TX today. David: Happy Birthday hope you get a present from mother nature!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 About as violent as it gets. Classic BWER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We are on the little LP behind the line. It's sorta pretty but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 That's one massive supercell that could easily put down a few more tornadoes, if not several. Most impressive I've seen thus far this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 172-kt couplet on lowest level SRVs just a minute ago. Wow! That is really high. It would be close to an EF5. Is that from GRLevel2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I bet an aerial flyover will reveal a huge path of debarked and snapped trees tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 That is really high. It would be close to an EF5. Is that from GRLevel2? Nah, GR3. If you or anyone else has Level 2 data and can confirm those velocities from around 2310 I'd appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Jeff petrowski should be seeing something! Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Jeff petrowski should be seeing something! Sent from my iPad HD He reported a TOG 8min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Wow, this is the next scan! Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Man nothing beats a TX supercell. Just massive beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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