Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 The hi res models are flailing wildly every run on radar sim. Wouldnt take them for too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 The hi res models are flailing wildly every run on radar sim. Wouldnt take them for too much. The hi res models are flailing wildly every run on radar sim. Wouldnt take them for too much. I've noticed... None of the High-Resolution Models have had ANY run to run consistency... EDIT: Relating to Conposite Ref. sim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301805Z - 301930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REGION. DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE STARTING TO INITIATE IN WCNTRL KS LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE CELL IN NESS COUNTY IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. THE THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE RUSSELL KS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING MAINLY FROM GARDEN CITY KS NWD TO AROUND OAKLEY KS. THE WEAKENING CAP IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND ERN CO MOVES INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE IN WRN KS BETWEEN 20Z TO 21Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012 ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 "STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM" I am not quite seeing the 60 to 70 knots anywhere, only 40 to 50knots. Not really trying to criticize their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 "STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM" I am not quite seeing the 60 to 70 knots anywhere, only 40 to 50knots. Not really trying to criticize their discussion. Apparently Hales still works for the SPC (he retired), he always seemed to overexaggerate things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 "STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM" I am not quite seeing the 60 to 70 knots anywhere, only 40 to 50knots. Not really trying to criticize their discussion. Actually there is Bulk Shear that strong in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Pushed out my first output for the day. Right now tracking OKC, Enid, and Gage with the highest of instability. Seeing potential for winds up to 86 mph hail up to 2", and 67.8% for F1 type tornadoes, 54.7% chance for F2's. Summary posted. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 That bad air leftover from overnight convection in parts of central-western OK will not budge, and I fear its effects as it advects NNW into KS. Really favoring the eastern Panhandle into far W OK for now... perhaps Lipscomb to Shamrock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I'm starting to think the Oklahoma area might see a bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I agree with the bust idea, simply because it is May of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 No 20Z Outlook changes, beside that they got rid of the 10% Tornado Prob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Decided to play in NW TX today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I agree with the bust idea, simply because it is May of 2012. And all but 1 maybe 2 MDT Risk areas (that didn't have an associated High Risk) have turned out to be busts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Eastern Panhandles are primed... the issue is it won't take long for storms to move into more stable air to the east. Hoping we can squeeze out something good in a 2-3 hr. timeframe after initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I agree with the bust idea, simply because it is May of 2012. Well actually now that I look, it appears that there is some TCU developing in SW Kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301958Z - 302100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND IN NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF CHILDRESS TX ALONG A DRYLINE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS THE CAP WEAKENS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT FREDERICK OK SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THAT SAME AREA SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WAVE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF SW OK AND NW TX SUGGESTING THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK. ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We are in Woodward with a lot of others.. Several DOWs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 And all but 1 maybe 2 MDT Risk areas (that didn't have an associated High Risk) have turned out to be busts... The threat was always mainly wind/hail.. Premature bust calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 tornado watch issued for tx panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 120 MILES NORTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321... DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE DRY LINE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. ERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT AREA IS LIMITED BY LOW LEVEL STABILITY AS INDICATED BY WAVE CLOUDS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW ZONE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27015. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Just adding to my fascination with ZDR columns... Notice shortly after convective initiation there is little information gleaned from the base reflectivity. Peeking at ZDR above 10kft you can see two areas of enhanced values. One immediately northeast of Brice, and another west northwest of Hedley. These are liquid water drops associated with two individual updrafts. Over 25 minutes later this is the result, two supercells (one right moving and the other left moving). Now the separate ZDR columns (updrafts) are very clear, one still northeast of Brice and the other about to cross the Donley/Collingsworth County border. In the future, the hope is to be able to issue two separate warnings (each cell eventually put 50 dBZ above 35kft) for each separate storm motion to avoid over-warning some parts of counties that have no threat. The 12z AMA sounding actually was pretty close to storm movement, with left movers roughly 230/25 and right movers 325/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Roll clouds keep advancing north. Hi res models on some runs blew up cells then killed them. Guess that might be why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Not to bummed out because I realized as soon as I saw the 10% TOR risk this morning, it would bust and the probs would drop by this evening. I think this is #5 of the month. Unbelievable. Perhaps you should let the event play out before calling it a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Big hail probably falling on Eli, Texas right now. BWER, with strong inflow on this supercell. Large area of 60+ dBZ above 30kft means something close to tennis balls is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Dual-pol confirms significant hail is likely in there. When CCs are getting that low, it is starting to become pretty large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Seeing a shift in my out put now tracking higher tornadic potential shifting to the Russell and Great Bend, KS area. Still showing Gage, Enid, Woodward, and Lawton still in favorable threats for severe weather. Updated data. http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 423 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. WESTERN CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLASKA COMMUNITY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF MEMPHIS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PLASKA COMMUNITY AND ESTELLINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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