jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We are away from that part just don't want to get hail damage to rental Oh, ok... Yeah, probably not to smart to go into some hail with a rental... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We are away from that part just don't want to get hail damage to rental If you did the loss damage waiver then you could park yourself right in the hail core and it isn't your problem. Now, being stuck without a windshield and having to get a new rental isn't worth it, but I have had very good experiences so far with rentals as long as I had the LDW. I only use enterprise, and one time(wasn't thinking) I had said what I was doing at the rental counter because they needed to know what states I was going to be in and all they said was the LDW covers any hail damage so don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 My Yukon, OK Tornado video. I also observed the Union City cone-shaped dust plume from close range. It was dark so I couldn't tell if there was a tornadic circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 I was impressed today by both the northeast storms and the Oklahoma storms. There was some sort of storm merger fujiwhara type thing at 0130z at OKC. I am looking back at the radar from some hours ago. Wow. 400 storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 New Day 1 is out. Mod risk... 10% tornado chance across roughly the SW 3/4 of OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We got the tornado! Woohoo! Congrats on getting another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Latest update shift things a touch W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Today looks like a pray you choose the right target day. At least it might be an earlier eve if the line races away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 06z NAM sounding for Alva, Oklahoma valid at 7pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 This hodograph for Enid, OK is about as classic as it gets. 06z NAM sounding valid at 7pm cdt tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 06z NAM sounding for Alva, Oklahoma valid at 7pm cdt tonight. Verbatim, obviously an outstanding sounding for supercells with big hail, with large, fat CAPE/steep midlevel lapse rates and more than sufficient bulk shear; and damaging winds, with steep low level lapse rates/DCAPE. However, although low level shear/SRH look very good, MLLCL heights are marginal at slightly above 1500 m. New 12z NAM12 came in with temps around 90 and dews in the mid 60s near Alva at 00z, which would likely portend marginal LCL heights for tornado potential. It wants to hold off convective initiation until close to 00z over far north central OK and favors going to a more linear set-up rather quickly. On the other hand, latest HRRR is popping discrete supercells over SW and NW OK at 21-22z, with a QLCS starting to surge southeast from KS into NW OK by 00z. Seems that the HRRR would be preferred by chasers, although it too is likely marginal with LCL heights due to temps in the 90s and dews in the mid and upper 60s at time of CI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 One of the problems Tornado-wise that we may have today is that temps across Oklahoma are going to be in the 80's pushing 90 in some locations... Temperatures that high aren't exactly conducive for Tornadoes... Altougth the temps aren't that high, so when the storms initiate and the anvil shadows become more prominate it seems it would cool temps more into the 70's (Prime Tornado temp IMO)... Anyway, that's just one of many Mesoscale affects, overall today looks VERY promising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Upper 80s is cool compared to recent days tho we may not have hours to let LCLs drop like last night. Both the KS and OK tornadoes were pretty tall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Upper 80s is cool compared to recent days tho we may not have hours to let LCLs drop like last night. Both the KS and OK tornadoes were pretty tall. All we can hope for is a few Discrete Supercells for a few hours (which is what the SPC is forecasting) to take advantage of the 65+ Dewpoints before it turns into a Wind Bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 If I were chasing today, I'd definitely target Southwestern Oklahoma, that's where the NAM, and RAP have been targeting for some of the best Tornado conditions, considering LCL's are expected to be around 750> Bases can be expected to be decently low... One of the only problems would be the CIN, with it expected to be fairly high, but hey what's storm chasing without gambling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 This hodograph for Enid, OK is about as classic as it gets. 06z NAM sounding valid at 7pm cdt tonight. If I could ask, and hate to go off topic, but where do you get these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We're going to hit NW OK for now. Not totally sure what best target is today but on the whole seems NW OK has more positive than SW OK. But I wouldnt be surprised to miss the zone at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 If I could ask, and hate to go off topic, but where do you get these? I don't where he got this one, but you can get soundings on Twisterdata by clicking on the map at the location you want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 We're going to hit NW OK for now. Not totally sure what best target is today but on the whole seems NW OK has more positive than SW OK. But I wouldnt be surprised to miss the zone at all. The only reason I'd really chase in NW OK today is because of the 10% Tornado prob by the SPC... I'm not entirely sure why they put it there specifically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 The only reason I'd really chase in NW OK today is because of the 10% Tornado prob by the SPC... I'm not entirely sure why they put it there specifically... The shear is a t least a little better ... forecast soundings look better overall. LCLs are perhaps a bit higher. The 12z NAM is maybe better in SW OK at least as far as the sim radar tho it's been kinda all over the place with that part at least. HRRR looks fine in both. I'm not terribly confident in the choice.. almost tempting to chill in central western OK, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 NW Oklahoma looks great. It might be west-central OK but it's often easier to adjust north to south, than south to north. An outflow boundary OFB clearly justifies 10% by SPC. One could easily argue for 15%. It's already a MDT for wind/hail, so a 15% torn is not a huge midday bomb if they do so. OFB slowly lifting north out of SW OK per VIS image. It should be west-central or NW by initiation. Winds already increasing in NW OK, hinting at the target zone there. No concerns about LCL with a lifting OFB. They will be locally lower regardless of NWP forecasts. A little more upper winds and they'd have to go 15%+. As it is looks like a great chase day. Just-right cap still holding; no rain in target zone; morning OFB laid down by east OK rain; and, likely a mid-afternoon start. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 If I could ask, and hate to go off topic, but where do you get these? He gets them from here, just click on the site you want, and than chose the product you want. http://wxcaster.com/...edProducts.html courtesy of Earl Barker's page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Mod risk pushed back further NW on the new outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC ..SRN KS INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL AND MORNING CONVECTION OVER OK INTO TX...WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA OVER TX. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARIES...SELY SURFACE WINDS FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE NWD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF SRN NEB. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA ENHANCED BY STRONG HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN EDGE OF THE EML. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH EAST OF A N/S SURFACE TROUGH FROM EXTREME ERN CO SWD INTO WEST TX...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG...WHILE GRADUALLY REDUCING THE CAP STRENGTH. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL PREDICTIONS OF CONVECTION...GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN TX. WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM SSELY IN THE LOW LEVELS TO WESTERLY IN THE MID LEVELS...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES. THE ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCS/S BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/SEWD...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS/S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 NW Oklahoma looks great. It might be west-central OK but it's often easier to adjust north to south, than south to north. An outflow boundary OFB clearly justifies 10% by SPC. One could easily argue for 15%. It's already a MDT for wind/hail, so a 15% torn is not a huge midday bomb if they do so. OFB slowly lifting north out of SW OK per VIS image. It should be west-central or NW by initiation. Winds already increasing in NW OK, hinting at the target zone there. No concerns about LCL with a lifting OFB. They will be locally lower regardless of NWP forecasts. A little more upper winds and they'd have to go 15%+. As it is looks like a great chase day. Just-right cap still holding; no rain in target zone; morning OFB laid down by east OK rain; and, likely a mid-afternoon start. Good luck! good thoughts.. thanks! looks like no major change to tornado probs on 1630z. still favoring our target area over SW OK. now mention of "several tornadoes" in stronger cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 For tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Double Post from Loco-Ako Chasecation Thread I've never chased, so just amateur advice, but I'd get South of the Arbuckles (Carter/Jefferson Co area as a base) and chase the Southernmost storms. GFS and NAM both like Southern edge igniting around 7 pm CDT near the Red River, both had good EHIs, GFS EHI is *very* good. GFS and NAM both have mega-fat CAPE curve (TTs over 60) in area of good speed and directional shear, so impressive hail looks to be on the menu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 HRRR wants to makes things linear quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 For tomorrow... Perhaps we could have a MDT tomorrow too? That would be 3 Moderate Risk days in-a-row, that would be a nice way to end a relatively quite may... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 HRRR wants to makes things linear quickly... Whatever the HRRR has developing in Throck-Morton County, TX looks pretty impressive... Especially since its leaning toward a more linear mode in Oklahoma/Kansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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