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May 22-? Severe weather


MNstorms

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MCD:

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE COLLISION WILL RESULT IN

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESO-LOW WHILE THE ACCELERATING SUPERCELL

FORMS THE APEX OF A BOWING SEGMENT. THIS LINE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO

ACCELERATE SWD/SEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO S-CNTRL OK.

THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH A

CONTINUING THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.

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0z NAM sounding for Enid, OK at 1pm cdt tomorrow.

Pretty damn beefy numbers there, 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH and 4000+ CAPE is not something to mess around with + manageable LCL heights and CIN nearly gone...

And I'd have to think that these ongoing storms would lay down some boundaries for possible interaction tomorrow as well.

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RAP_255_2012053000_F18_EHI1_SURFACE.png

00Z RAP 18-hour (18Z/1-PM) 0-1KM EHI Forecast... Very interesting (as usual the 0-3KM EHI is out of the roof) Along with 3000+ CAPE, and 100+ 0-1KM Helicities, and 300+ 0-3KM Helicities, But the Hodograph's throughout Oklahoma aren't that impressive... Anyway, tomorrow as expected could get very interesting if we are able to get widely scattered Discrete Supercells for a while, before it develops into more of an Damaging wind threat...

EDIT: Whoops sorry, didn't see somebody had already posted essentially the same thing...

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Pretty damn beefy numbers there, 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH and 4000+ CAPE is not something to mess around with + manageable LCL heights and CIN nearly gone...

And I'd have to think that these ongoing storms would lay down some boundaries for possible interaction tomorrow as well.

0Z NAM in general looks pretty beefy. Taking the sounding verbatim however, one caveat is the weak flow around the 2-3km layer, which results in a slight kink in the hodograph in that region. That would favor messier storm modes and possible splitting. As thundersnow said it will depend on if things can remain discrete.

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