Ed Lizard Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Squall line winning. Good storms. Trying to play embedded supercell but mainly just running from the line. Could cross the line and go for new little cell that is quickly developing South of Childress. Not sure if you'd make it before dusk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storm is a beastly HP. Out of light.. If anything popped it would be rain wrapped prob anyway. Lost Internet and dodged the haul core just barely. Heading back to Wichita Falls. Got some good photos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Update, tracking area around Tulsa to Mcalster with potential for storms looking at potential of wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to 2.4". Http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storm coming into NW El Reno starting to get its act together, taking a bit of a right turn. LCLs might be a bit high, though. (Of course, once I post it, the new scan comes in looking bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 00z 4km WRF-NMM just got pushed out and looks promising, with supercells diving south out of the DDC-PTT corridor 22-02z. It hasn't been the best this year and I don't trust it on the details, but I like the general idea. Hodographs tomorrow, while still lackluster for widespread tornado potential, should hopefully be more favorable for right-movers than today (when left splits were actually thriving). See y'all in NW OK if things still look on track by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 its wrf-nmm. Just thought i'd point that out, since I've seen it a few times now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 its wrf-nmm. Just thought i'd point that out, since I've seen it a few times now. fixed... the other times were probably me too, I'm really bad about screwing that up for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 My 21st birthday is on May 30th. Just thought I'd through that out since the new Day 2 just arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wow bullish update from SPC tonight. Day 2 Moderate for N OK and S KS and a hatched area too. And on top of all that, I met Jerry Guyer back in March and he didn't seem like the kind of guy to overreact to things either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC Day 1 and Day 2 are out. Moderate on the Day 2. Sounds like a wind damage threat and based what the NAM showed, not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC Day 1 and Day 2 are out. Moderate on the Day 2. Sounds like a wind damage threat and based what the NAM showed, not surprising. This. Although looking at some of the hi res versions of the NAM it had a few discrete sups before the big wind bomb took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The 00z NAM actually had 250-400 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH in the vicinity of 3000-4000 J/kg CAPE across portions of OK from 18-00z, owing to what LL flow that there is being significantly backed due to the close proximity to the deepening LL cyclone (although LCLs may prove problematic again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wow bullish update from SPC tonight. Day 2 Moderate for N OK and S KS and a hatched area too. And on top of all that, I met Jerry Guyer back in March and he didn't seem like the kind of guy to overreact to things either. *Jared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wednesday and even into Thursday are looking a bit more interesting. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 ICT AFD says MCS Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wow bullish update from SPC tonight. Day 2 Moderate for N OK and S KS and a hatched area too. And on top of all that, I met Jerry Guyer back in March and he didn't seem like the kind of guy to overreact to things either. Jared Guyer, IMO, is at the top of the SPC forecast bunch. Let me add that I think SPC as a whole has many of the best forecasters out there, both convective forecasting and general synoptics. But I think Guyer is really up there with Carbin, Thompson, Edwards, Garner, Corfidi, etc. At least those are my tops....like I said they are all superb with their own unique talents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I could've sworn everyone called him Jerry as a nickname when he was here. But that has nothing to do with the severe weather threat so whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Short-term modeling trends point toward initiation a touch farther SE than I had hoped/expected last night, meaning I-35 and metro OKC could both become issues by early evening for chasers. Fingers crossed for a sculpted NW-flow beauty to dive through the Fairview-Kingfisher area beforehand around dinnertime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Short-term modeling trends point toward initiation a touch farther SE than I had hoped/expected last night, meaning I-35 and metro OKC could both become issues by early evening for chasers. Fingers crossed for a sculpted NW-flow beauty to dive through the Fairview-Kingfisher area beforehand around dinnertime. We're closing in on Alva. Sounds like we might need to drop SE? Haven't looked recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We're closing in on Alva. Sounds like we might need to drop SE? Haven't looked recent. The Almighty HRRR likes initiation anywhere from there down to El Reno, so I think you're fine. Taking it literally, the southern activity is more persistent with higher updraft helicity, but that level of detail is likely beyond the useful scope of even the God Model. The only more realistic reason I'm seeing to hedge south is better low-level moisture closer to I-40. OTOH, the frontal zone is theoretically a focus for increased helicity, though it appears fairly diffuse right now with hot/dry conditions along the state line gradually transitioning to cooler/drier ones over KS. I'll probably head out within the hour for Kingfisher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 19Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 292006Z - 292130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW KS...WCNTRL OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY 2130Z. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR CHILDRESS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX INTO WRN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. WARMING SFC TEMPS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF WRN OK AND PARTS OF SW KS WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AROUND 21Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FAVORED ZONE FOR INITIATION WILL BE FROM GAGE OK ARCHING SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND BACK SWWD INTO NW TX WHERE SEVERAL FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE BECOMING AGITATED ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM SW KS INTO WRN OK HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 1 KM TO 4 KM AGL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR...A SEVERE MCS APPEARS LIKELY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL OK. ..BROYLES/BUNTING/WEISS.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Heading up I-35 towards OKC. Based on HRRR and OUN WRF solutions, looks like storms will be in/near OKC near 6-7 PM. I'm going to try to stay south of the metro and let the storms come to me so I don't get into traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The 0-3km helicity values are nearly 0 in most of Oklahoma right now, as well as 0-1km shear. I wonder if those will increase a lot in the next few hours or stay nearly the same? That might make a big difference for tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The 0-3km helicity values are nearly 0 in most of Oklahoma right now, as well as 0-1km shear. I wonder if those will increase a lot in the next few hours or stay nearly the same? That might make a big difference for tornado potential. They are supposed to be a bit better for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storm near Snyder has a weird look to it, almost an upside down hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Looks like Brett nailed his zone for the tail end storm. We are blasting down the east side of the line hoping to get some of it before it impinges on OKC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Gorgeous wall cloud on JR Hehnly ChaserTV stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The two southern storms west of Enid are definitely ingesting some of the SSE low level flow. I would bet both are spitting out baseballs. 2nd storm north of tail end cell on a beeline for Enid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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