SouthernNJ Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 This one conceivably could've had a warning upgrade based on the 513 velocity scan, we'll see if anything gets reported. Chasers reported a tornado at 525 with this storm, which led to the official warning. This storm may have more than one circulation, but the stronger of the two is near Cedar Rapids NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 TOG in Antelope Co., NE. LCLs are slightly better up there, though still quite marginal. EDIT: Next cell down the line in Greeley Co. looking relatively similar in terms of velocity presentation. Initial tornado warning of the day: Antelope County Nebraska, 22:13z Seems that the tornado would be hard to detect at this distance from the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The supercell which produced a tornado near Greeley Center has gone on to drop a couple more, and contains a fair amount of large hail. On its present heading, it will move through the city of Norfolk NE in the next 15-20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Norfolk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Fire department reported a tornado 2 miles SW of Battle Creek about 12 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Pushed out an overwatch area for Nebraska/Kansas/South Dakota and Minnesota. Tracking Lincoln, Sioux City, Hays, Hastings, Columbus,NE as highest threat areas. Convective gusts up to 88 knots, hail up to 1.5" and 50-60 probability of Isolated Tornadoes Output updated at http://smartwxmodel.net/ Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Norfolk seriously in jeopardy at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 I had quarter size hail. More to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Minneapolis should prepare for a rapid change in weather during the next 15 minutes or so. The storm to the south is becoming dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 MPX: 1 S ST Francis [Anoka Co, MN] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 08:58 PM CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 we drove in a lot of circles today.. should have just stayed in ne nebraska last night it seems. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 we did see some decent supercell structure near smith center ks during a cell merger but it was flying and pretty high based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking ahead... not particularly excited about the next several days, but at least there will be convective activity each day. The front should plow SE to the I-44 corridor by mid-afternoon tomorrow, with storms developing across NW TX into possibly SW OK by early evening. Low-level flow is practically non-existent, but strong veering will promote respectable deep-layer shear with potential for supercells. Moisture will surge NW into the Panhandles and S KS for Tue-Wed, which I believe look slightly more interesting. The same issue of weak low-level flow, compensated for slightly by strong directional shear, will persist. There's strong model agreement on early (18-20z) initiation Tuesday along the KS/OK border, with activity diving SE toward I-40 during the afternoon. Looks like a supercell-to-MCS evolution to me, with hopefully some photogenic scenes resulting. Never underestimate the ability of NW flow to produce gorgeous supercells, provided we get storms to stay discrete a couple hours on any of these upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking at the overall reports so far, this May is quite a bit quieter tornado wise than 2006 or 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Quieter than 2009. Geez that's really saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well, Ian and crew got a good one either way, that supercell the other night was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking ahead... not particularly excited about the next several days, but at least there will be convective activity each day. The front should plow SE to the I-44 corridor by mid-afternoon tomorrow, with storms developing across NW TX into possibly SW OK by early evening. Low-level flow is practically non-existent, but strong veering will promote respectable deep-layer shear with potential for supercells. Moisture will surge NW into the Panhandles and S KS for Tue-Wed, which I believe look slightly more interesting. The same issue of weak low-level flow, compensated for slightly by strong directional shear, will persist. There's strong model agreement on early (18-20z) initiation Tuesday along the KS/OK border, with activity diving SE toward I-40 during the afternoon. Looks like a supercell-to-MCS evolution to me, with hopefully some photogenic scenes resulting. Never underestimate the ability of NW flow to produce gorgeous supercells, provided we get storms to stay discrete a couple hours on any of these upcoming days. We are going to hit that area tomorrow... We've already done 3000 miles so it might be nice to chill around the same area for a while. Would like some better tornado potential but I suppose if we don't get anymore it's still a successful trip. Honestly I'd love some more structure so if we can pull that it would be great. Worst comes to worst we'll head back early and save some money. Is a bit odd how moisture has been so problematic this late in the season. Thought all that rain in TX lately would have set this period up better. Guess the long term drought is still an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We are going to hit that area tomorrow... We've already done 3000 miles so it might be nice to chill around the same area for a while. Would like some better tornado potential but I suppose if we don't get anymore it's still a successful trip. Honestly I'd love some more structure so if we can pull that it would be great. Worst comes to worst we'll head back early and save some money. Is a bit odd how moisture has been so problematic this late in the season. Thought all that rain in TX lately would have set this period up better. Guess the long term drought is still an issue? The moisture situation is extremely disappointing, after all the drought recovery we experienced the past 6-8 months. I believe the tropical activity off the East Coast has been a major culprit this past week. Way too much northerly flow into the Gulf, resulting in crappy trajectories; we definitely aren't getting a deep fetch of tropical moisture. Just one more reason for me to hate the tropics... as if there weren't enough already . Thankfully, moisture looks more seasonable the next few days, albeit in the absence of strong shear or a major trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Potential for some big supercells this afternoon across the TX Panhandle and down near the Red River. Nice high based viewing...they may be a bit fast moving though given the high based environment....and relatively straight hodos above the LFC. Giant hail seems like a probable threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 1630 outlook somewhat more interesting. Have not looked at tor potential in depth as figured it would take some extra luck. If we can get LCLs below 1500 late evening would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What the 12z NAM is doing on Weds in pretty incredible, deepening the sfc low in the eastern TX 10mb in 6hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What the 12z NAM is doing on Weds in pretty incredible, deepening the sfc low in the eastern TX 10mb in 6hr. 18z is still going pretty crazy. Convective feedback issue or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 18z is still going pretty crazy. Convective feedback issue or something? The 105-110 F temps progged around the low ain't hurting. Speaking of which, as a chaser, you just can't win when the entire warm sector is in the 90s and 100s every day like it has been this month. Even when we do get good moisture, it's not enough to keep LCLs in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well here begins the high-based monster hail show across TX/southern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 18z is still going pretty crazy. Convective feedback issue or something? The 105-110 F temps progged around the low ain't hurting. Speaking of which, as a chaser, you just can't win when the entire warm sector is in the 90s and 100s every day like it has been this month. Even when we do get good moisture, it's not enough to keep LCLs in check. Definitely not erroneous convective feedback. Combo cross-barrier flow inciting leeside cyclogenesis, upper level wave phasing, and a Brett mentioned, possibly a diurnal heat low. Much of the deepening is well before any DMC initiates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Tracking some isolated severe storms across the midland to SW Oklahoma area. Main threats are convective winds around 74 mph and hail size up to 2". Output at http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 2" hail reported with the Wilbarger Co. cell at 5:12pm. Imagine there could be some nice downbursts as well given the 30-35 F T/Td spreads. A lone cell initiated near CHK within the past 20 minutes, though it appears to be struggling. LCLs are minimized and low-level shear maximized (relatively speaking, as it's not impressive) over the central OK portion of the frontal zone, so I'll be keeping an eye on it. EDIT: Also, split city out there. Gotta love straight hodos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Watching a nice wall cloud NW of Holiday TX. Getting handheld lightning too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Watching a nice wall cloud NW of Holiday TX. Getting handheld lightning too! TWC Twitter reported brief funnel cloud w/o touchdown. FDR radar cool, storms moving East or even ESE, and a very distinct boundary paralleling the cells in Oklahoma retreating back NW. My secret source in Holliday reported heavy rain, he didn't see any tornadoes, my source 10 miles North near Kamay guesstimated a couple of minutes of solid 70 mph winds. He hasn't ever estimated winds for me before, so I don't know how reliable that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Squall line winning. Good storms. Trying to play embedded supercell but mainly just running from the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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