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May 22-? Severe weather

MNstorms

By MNstorms,
in Central/Western States

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

Congrats gentlemen. I have been gone all day driving back to MN again. Wish I could have watched things unfold today.

If you are going to be in MN on Sunday things look more interesting IMO, cold front is now shown to come into MN just after or just as we get into peak heating, before it looked liked it waited until after 7pm.

Also I think Saturday is looking more interesting as well up here. Waiting for the SPC day one and two updates, wind field charts looks interesting to me on Saturday, haven't looked at any soundings yet for a specific location. It's been my experience that warm front initiated storms during the late afternoon up here get very interesting.

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mnchaser

mnchaser

Posted
Posted

<strong></strong>

<strong></strong>

If you are going to be in MN on Sunday things look more interesting IMO, cold front is now shown to come into MN just after or just as we get into peak heating, before it looked liked it waited  until after 7pm.<strong></strong>

<strong></strong>

Also I think Saturday is looking more interesting as well up here. Waiting for the SPC day one and two updates, wind field charts looks interesting to me on Saturday, haven&#39;t looked at any soundings yet for a specific location. It&#39;s been my experience that warm front initiated storms during the late afternoon up here get very interesting.<strong></strong>

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</p>

I'm going to gamble on Saturday, liking the Sioux Falls are maybe a little further south depending where the front ends up. Models have been showing an eroding cap with cooler 700mb temps by 00z. Could be much better then Sunday IMO "IF" that cap can go!

Also you are correct about the warm front thing, the tornado in my avatar was a multi-vortex EF-3 in South Central MN on August 24th 2006. The craziest tornado I've ever seen.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

Will be chasing in south-west MN tomorrow, maybe SD and Iowa fringes as well. Rap showing dew points in the upper 60s, maybe low 70s, will a solid warm front. Convection popping in SW MN by early evening, per RAP model. I have a really good feeling about the overall setup...

Good Luck I hope you see something, I have to work from noon to 830 on Saturday, no internet access, company blocks most site's can't even get radar, Sunday however I'm off.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1251 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND

CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CNTRL & SRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL MOVE NEWD INTO

THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WELL-DEFINED

MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NNEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A

LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING

NNEWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. THE MODELS DEVELOP NUMEROUS

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH

MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG

INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN

PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR

SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR SALINA KS AND NORFOLK NEB AT 28/00Z SHOW

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT.

AS THE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH...THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH

LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE

STORMS AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENT. THIS

ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT

FOR HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH THE MORE DOMINANT

SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST AS THE

LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING. STORM RELATIVE

HELICITIES OF 250 TO 350 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR

STRONG TORNADOES AS WELL. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED

LATER IN THE EVENT AS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE DEVELOPS DURING THE

EVENING.

THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXTEND NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS

VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS MINNEAPOLIS WITH THE THREAT MARKEDLY

INCREASING DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE

REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING. ON

THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS SW KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND WEST

TX...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY ISOLATED WITH SWD

EXTENT MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND A CAPPING

INVERSION.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

SPC really toned down probs for today...and removed hatching. I understanding staying low on probs given significant capping concerns, but taking out the hatching I don't fully understand given the extreme storm environment should isolated storms fire this afternoon...especially across eastern NE into western IA.

Edit I am looking at the wrong days ^^.

Anyways, today looks mildly interesting...RAP is completely removing the cap mainly through boundary layer heating this afternoon across portions of the cornbelt...temps soaring into the upper 90s. Initiation would possibly be along a quasi dryline across the central plains this afternoon and/or along the warm front/surface trof axis. Should storms go there, environment would be prime for strong supercells and possibly some tors given the SBCAPE progged near 3000-5000 j/kg and and nicely veering wind profile. Mid level flow peaks AON 50 kts as low as 600-700 hpa. EHIs are maxing our anywhere from 6-10 given the low level looping hodos and relatively extreme CAPE.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

If you are going to be in MN on Sunday things look more interesting IMO, cold front is now shown to come into MN just after or just as we get into peak heating, before it looked liked it waited until after 7pm.

Also I think Saturday is looking more interesting as well up here. Waiting for the SPC day one and two updates, wind field charts looks interesting to me on Saturday, haven't looked at any soundings yet for a specific location. It's been my experience that warm front initiated storms during the late afternoon up here get very interesting.

Actually I am leaving soon and heading back to NE. Was only here for a day to pick up my new car at my parents place. I was thinking of heading down SW into NE given the potential today, but then I realized driving a new car storm chasing would be foolhardy. I am taking I90 back through southern SODAK to stay clear of any 55k foot storms dropping tennis balls.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

For the Good Lord archive...

That's for Sioux Falls at 00z on the HRRR. Given that the HRRR has handled thermos much better than the RUC ever did, that is a scary forecast sounding.

Initiation, should it go, will make things interesting today. Going to be interesting to see if RAP is right removing all CINH through heating alone...you don't see that type of heating very often given the progged dews without the presence of a long-lasting subtropical death ridge.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

New SPC Day 1. Talks about the uncertainty as well as potential. For chasecationers...I would have to think days like this...loaded with potential but uncertainty on initiation...are the fun ones.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

A DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST SCENARIO TODAY WITH MANY FACTORS

POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER

FACTORS POSSIBLY HINDERING THIS DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN

FEATURES A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE

DOMINATING THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE

FEATURES...DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO COPIOUS LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST WHILE AT THE SAME

TIME RESULTING IN AN EXPANSIVE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIRMASS/CAP THAT

WILL INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG

FORCED ASCENT AND/OR DIABATIC INFLUENCES.

STORM SCALE GUIDANCE FROM 00Z...THE 12Z WRF-NMM...AND THE 12Z

NAM-WRF MODELS ALL DEPICT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORM

INITIATION ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER IA.

THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A RESULT OF WEAK DCVA ACCOMPANYING A SERIES

OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER

MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE MAY CREST THE RIDGE AXIS

COINCIDENT WITH A MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND

CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RESULTING

CONVECTION COULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH

HAIL AND WIND SPREADING EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM

FRONT FROM IA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS PARTS OF THESE AREAS HAVE

BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK WITH THIS UPDATE.

EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN A SCENARIO EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG

THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT

NEAR THE FRONT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO

ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS BY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN

OVERCOME INHIBITION IN THESE AREAS WILL EXIST IN A KINEMATIC REGIME

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND

TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL

LIKELY BE SITUATED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY

DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSE A

TREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

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Jonbo

Jonbo

Posted
Posted

Not the most ideal time for this to happen.

A lightning strike has temporarily disrupted Des Moines WSR-88D (KDMX) radar imagery and our telephone system. This will affect the Waterloo and Des Moines ring-thru forecast lines which will be out of service until at least Tuesday. Parts will be ordered for the radar first thing Saturday morning, but it may not return to service until late Saturday at the earliest and potentially later in the weekend depending on part availability and further troubleshooting. We apologize for this inconvenience.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dmx&storyid=83042&source=0

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

For the Good Lord archive...

That's for Sioux Falls at 00z on the HRRR. Given that the HRRR has handled thermos much better than the RUC ever did, that is a scary forecast sounding.

That's the RAP, not HRRR. I don't think you can get that from the HRRR.

Good post. That is a crazy sounding and hodograph. The SPC mesoanalysis 6-hour forecast panel shows values of the supecell composite parameter up to 44 in South Dakota. Wow!!!

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L.B. LaForce

L.B. LaForce

Posted
Posted

That's the RAP, not HRRR. I don't think you can get that from the HRRR.

Good post. That is a crazy sounding and hodograph. The SPC mesoanalysis 6-hour forecast panel shows values of the supecell composite parameter up to 44 in South Dakota. Wow!!!

RAP: Rapid Refresh, which is short for HRRR: High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Not sure if they are exactly the same though...

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