MNstorms Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 It looks like severe storms are possible mid next week. I hope I didn't post this too early. Reed says "major tornado outbreak." http://www.facebook....05519168&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Isn't this already covered in the 5/17 and onward thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Isn't this already covered in the 5/17 and onward thread? I see. This looks like a different event. That outbreak looks to end this weekend (Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think it's a bit early to be using the "O" word. "Event" would be a better term but maybe i'm just being picky Anyway, Reed is the absolute king of wishcasting. I wonder if he will start calling for outbreaks on "see text" days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think it's a bit early to be using the "O" word. "Event" would be a better term but maybe i'm just being picky Anyway, Reed is the absolute king of wishcasting. I wonder if he will start calling for outbreaks on "see text" days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 reed is very good at playing to his audience. tho it does get annoying as someone who is not facebook level weather smart. however, we've seen plenty of model runs that if verified would likely be a tornado outbreak on some level. so in that sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Interesting I love the Low-Level, and Mid-Level Winds the GFS is showing every other run, as in it will have them at 18Z but not at 00Z... Haven't seen the 00Z Run yet (TwisterData doesn't have it up...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 wow. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?id=166805519168&l=589bd78a41&pid=9466886 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I saw this image, it's a bit far out but it's definitely something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much. Uhh, that isn't the timeframe where the main energy comes through (at least for your area with the initial wave, which has a less chance of being stopped in its tracks by the ridge). I do agree that the situation with the second embedded impulse is becoming bleaker with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Andy, I agree with what you said, by hour 150 or so things look interesting just north to the TC's metro say around St Cloud and areas north of there, storms could initiate between 1 and 7pm just ahead of the advancing warm front, in other words a favorable time of day for severe, having said that, its really way to early to talk spec's, some will call it wish casting, some would call it irresponsible. However I will be more blunt, this is what the model is showing as of this time, chances of that verifying verbatim are almost zero. But it will be interesting to watch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 From the ECMWF courtesy of OK ST. Can anyone spell Death Ridge...If this verifies the biggest weather story for this thread would be the extreme heat as we approach Memorial Day. With possible 100° temps around the Sioux Falls area. I hate to show this, but it is what it is, looks like many of us will be watering our lawns, mother nature may not give us much. Uh... that's not a death ridge buddy... This is a death ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 I'm interested in the triple point in ND on Tuesday night. Looks like 0-1 and especially 0-3km wind profiles will be really nice between 0z and 6z, with decent deep layer shear and instability. The past few NAM runs have been consistently popping off convection up here (as well as some of the high resolution runs). I'm a bit concerned about high MLLCL heights, but as we saw yesterday, this isn't always an event-killer, and it looks like there will be at least a small region in ND where they are reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Are we using this thread for this now? I'll end the 17th and on thread on the 22nd if necessary, only reason I ask is that we had a lot of discussion about this in the other thread as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Are we using this thread for this now? I'll end the 17th and on thread on the 22nd if necessary, only reason I ask is that we had a lot of discussion about this in the other thread as well. I vote new thread. New system, with a decent break in activity between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Uh... that's not a death ridge buddy... This is a death ridge: http://www.seanandcorey.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/500_110717_12.gif Same ridge from 3 days earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Minnesota_storms, you may want to edit this to include the 22nd in this thread as well, given it will be the same system impacting on Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Possibility we could see a MDT sometime this week? Just grasping at straws here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Too early to call. If the moisture/instability is there then it is possible, but we'll have to wait and see (I personally hate having to question instability potential in Late May). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Too early to call. If the moisture/instability is there then it is possible, but we'll have to wait and see (I personally hate having to question instability potential in Late May). I am hoping it's just underdone now, cause it looks pretty lame currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 I wouldn't say this is "lame". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Whoa, didn't see that. Was mostly focused on 24/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 I wouldn't say this is "lame". Dewpoints and LCL are not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 might be that i havent looked much since i left but the 0z gfs looks pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Day 5 ECMWF already looks better, much better. Great Lakes wave is much slower and stronger...also flattening the death ridge out east with a better low level advection regime. Could be a great high plains event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 To say the ECMWF suddenly looks highly interesting day 6 would be an understatement. Still not a perfect setup, but the potential just went way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Pushed out my analysis run for the ND/SD zones for 22 to the 23rd. Just showing the potential for Thunderstorms across the regions, with early forecast of winds up 60 knots. Overwatch for this area loaded on http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Push for more updates soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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