SouthernNJ Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Pretty nasty storm looks to have just moved through Moore OK on the south side of OKC. Strong winds indicated in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Eventful day on this end. We went out to Salina and ended up on the Ellsworth County storm and followed it to Ottawa County. Got back to Salina for the storm this evening and followed that to Abilene. Saw my first ever golf ball sized hail from the Ellsworth storm into Saline County. Some of the stones were easily approaching larger than golf balls. Very cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Damage from the Harper, KS tornado from Jeff P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Um...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Wow thanks for the post JoMo... looks like EF3 damage to me. Definitely not just some weak landspout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Is it just me or are terrible tornado setup days, become good, and good tornado setup days become crappy ones? (With the exception of the high risk days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Just ran analysis for the slight risk of severe weather across eastern MN and IL. Tracking Hail potential of around 1 to 1.3", winds around 50 knots for this zone. Consolidated outputs @ http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Latest GFS looks interesting to me on Wednesday and Thursday for MN, IA, and WI. Instability looks not good though. What exactly is preventing a decent severe threat at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Latest GFS looks interesting to me on Wednesday and Thursday for MN, IA, and WI. Instability looks not good though. What exactly is preventing a decent severe threat at this time? Tuesday looks potentially interesting given some significant caveats. Big differences on the placement of the warm front...and the associated height falls/low level mass convergence. 12z NAM/00z ECMWF have the synoptic warm front clear into southern Canada with capping all day in the warm sector. We will see...the GFS has some potential for a northern plains chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Considering we had rather limited moisture yesterday, and we still had some rather impressive things happen (the Harper tornado), Wednesday doesn't look too bad given a few things fall into place. There is a solid amount of deep layer and low level shear placed around the Upper MS Valley, where the cap appears most breakable (Eastern MN, WI, etc.) with this incoming wave, and it wouldn't take a ton of instability to get something going should the moisture arrive in time (and not mix before convection fires). (This is based off of primarily the GFS verbatim, btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 And also on the + side, the 12z GFS now does eventually eject the second wave later in the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 And also on the + side, the 12z GFS now does eventually eject the second wave later in the week... Was just going to mention this... let's hope this is the beginning of a trend. Would probably yield a respectable event next weekend, although verbatim there are moisture issues, likely related to the upper low from Hell parked off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Is it just me or are terrible tornado setup days, become good, and good tornado setup days become crappy ones? (With the exception of the high risk days) It's aonly the days I'm not following when there's some action. Aparently a watched pot never boils this year. That looks more than EF3 BTW. I'm guessing it's a 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 It's aonly the days I'm not following when there's some action. Aparently a watched pot never boils this year. That looks more than EF3 BTW. I'm guessing it's a 4 Really hard to judge with this video. I can't tell what kind of structure that was. If it was a barn, i'd say EF2. If that was a house with poor anchoring I'd say EF3. It would have to be a well built house for that to be EF4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Holy crap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Really hard to judge with this video. I can't tell what kind of structure that was. If it was a barn, i'd say EF2. If that was a house with poor anchoring I'd say EF3. It would have to be a well built house for that to be EF4. I doubt that was just a barn in that video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 And also on the + side, the 12z GFS now does eventually eject the second wave later in the week... Was just going to mention this... let's hope this is the beginning of a trend. Would probably yield a respectable event next weekend, although verbatim there are moisture issues, likely related to the upper low from Hell parked off the Carolina coast. FWIW, the CMC also does. I have noticed that the lead wave breaking off the trough day 4-6 and tracking through the Great Lakes is substantially more progressive and stronger...and it really flattens out the death ridge...which augments the advection patterns ahead of the secondary trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I found this interesting from JB. And yes, I do follow him on twitter...mainly for the Lolz. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont understand SPC day 4-8 . There should be moderate to major tornado outbreak this week in plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Some select photos from our central Kansas trip yesterday. First time seeing supercell structures and large hail. Sorry if the pics are a little big. I tried to compress them as many times as possible down to about 600kb. My camera takes 4MB+ pictures. 20 miles east of the supercell over Ellsworth that was producing ping pong ball size hail at the time. This was under the supercell over NE Ellsworth County as it was recycling between warnings. Here is the first hail stone larger than a marble I have ever seen, and that marble was one of maybe three I saw in a storm five or so years ago in Waterloo, ON. There is a golf ball on the road bottom right. I got so excited I forgot to take more pictures. The hail was outstanding. Bravo! This was near Glendale where that 1.75" hail was officially reported. This is the storm coming into Salina. We only had rain at our location, but NE of us the radio said nickel sized hail was reported on the north side of Salina. And this is the Salina storm over Ottawa County. And this is the new storm that formed south of the original Salina storm. At this time it was producing golf ball sized hail over Abilene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I found this interesting from JB. And yes, I do follow him on twitter...mainly for the Lolz. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont understand SPC day 4-8 . There should be moderate to major tornado outbreak this week in plains If he is right, let's hope it's later in the week so Ian doesn't miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I found this interesting from JB. And yes, I do follow him on twitter...mainly for the Lolz. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont understand SPC day 4-8 . There should be moderate to major tornado outbreak this week in plains I don't know if I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Harper tornado is a preliminary EF3: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ict&storyid=83274&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Harper tornado is a preliminary EF3: http://www.crh.noaa....=83274&source=0 Dang, guess that was a house.Totally leveled it. If it was well built, then we could see EF4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 What was up with that Bastardi comment... Moderate to major tornado outbreak this far out? Is he trying to become the laughing stock of the weather world again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 What was up with that Bastardi comment... Moderate to major tornado outbreak this far out? Is he trying to become the laughing stock of the weather world again? It's plausible, but I bet ya it's more that he makes crazy statements solely to get hits/subscribers. Pay no attention to the man... he's insane and has zero credibility within the field of meteorology. The sad thing is he's dragged his son Garret into it, and Garret's just as bad if not worse than JB. The setup for Wed-Fri and the second weekend threat aren't exactly looking like gangbusters right now, but I'm sure they'll produce something just about every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I found this interesting from JB. And yes, I do follow him on twitter...mainly for the Lolz. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Dont understand SPC day 4-8 . There should be moderate to major tornado outbreak this week in plains I think "boring" is a better descriptor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 If he is right, let's hope it's later in the week so Ian doesn't miss it im already counting the ones yesteday as ones i would have seen if not for tokyo. damn you tokyo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 What was up with that Bastardi comment... Moderate to major tornado outbreak this far out? Is he trying to become the laughing stock of the weather world again? Yes he's doing what he always does and always will do. Now don't mention his name again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Northern Plains still looking like some stuff could happen 24-25. Moisture and instability look questionable though at best, so i'm assuming (hoping) it's just underdone for now. Usually not a "glass half full" kinda guy, but it's getting kinda desperate. Unless something happens soon, we might have a May without a single major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Heads up guys.. GRLevel 3, 2.0 is out now. http://www.grlevelx.com/grlevel3_2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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