SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 TOG on the NW side of Harper, per spotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 149th and Berry Ave in Harper County, extensive tree damage, powerlines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Wonder what's happening... parameters aren't that impressive and LCLs are sky high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Tornado near Harper, KS, about 15 minutes ago. Definitely not a gustnado. Credit to Michael Fonfara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Wonder what's happening... parameters aren't that impressive and LCLs are sky high... MCD from SPC: DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TORNADO REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST HOUR WITH A TSTM CLUSTER JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM AROUND 20 W CNK TO 20 SE P28. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED ALONG THE N/S TO NE/SW INFLECTION POINT OF THE FRONT WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE CLUSTER...INTERCEPTING THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS THREAT WILL WANE AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED WEAKENING PER TIME-SERIES OF ICT VWP DATA. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD PERSIST WITH FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AS WELL WITH NEB SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING AWAY FROM THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 That's what I thought. I'm 45 minutes SSW of you. More storms developing in Minnesota. The main one is getting stronger. Just got 5 mins of hail here. Up to nickels. Hail follows me. I never saw hail in MN/ND for about 2-3 years straight...I have seen hail about 20 times alone in NE since being there for 14 months...now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 @MikeTheiss Filmed the most incredible tornado of my life !!!! Near Rago, KS... Check this OUT !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 This explains that little show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 The SPC moved the area south for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 @MikeTheiss Filmed the most incredible tornado of my life !!!! Near Rago, KS... Check this OUT !!!!! What a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 This explains that little show... SHHHH. keep that quiet. This is one of Nick Nolte, Jesse Risley and I's chase secrets...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 The SPC moved the area south for no reason. Yeah, because the guys at SPC move risk areas just for the fun of it. ^ sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 I'd say the SPC f'd up with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and only have 10% Tornado Probability with the Watch, considering there were 18-Tornado Reports inside the Watch... Not to be rude, but you have been posting a lot of this confrontational type stuff lately. They did not "f" up, as David posted, there was an unforecasted enhancement of the horizontal vorticity and velocity in the area of the tornadic development. The LCLs also lowered more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I'd say the SPC f'd up with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and only have 10% Tornado Probability with the Watch, considering there were 18-Tornado Reports inside the Watch... They did not "f" anything up. This was an extremely localized event and I can guarantee you that 18 tornadoes did not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I'd say the SPC f'd up with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch, and only have 10% Tornado Probability with the Watch, considering there were 18-Tornado Reports inside the Watch... SPC did not "f up" as you say. The blue box was spot on per data and obs. The only thing they could have possibly done, was change the watch over to a tornado watch once the tornadoes were in progress. But being 95% of them were in a 2 county area, and the fact that most of them were very short lived gustnadoes, there really was no point. They did fine. Sometimes you need to sit back and not post everything that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Reber, that was, once again, another asinine post. The problem is you are coming off as if you are an expert yourself, and you aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I will say that I was impressed at the amount and speed at which these small-scale circulations developed this afternoon. It seemed like we had multiple, short-lived tornadoes at various points of the storm complex. It does look like we had two to three more defined, longer lived circulations that produced more substantial tornadoes. We didn't have 18 tornadoes, but I'm willing to bed that we had several. Early on in the event, I was betting that most of the tornado reports would end up being gustnadoes, but it looks like they ended up being bonafided tornadoes. An unbelievable prize to those who caught the tornadoes, but an unbelievably painful insult to those who didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I did say "Tornado Reports" I perfectly know that there weren't 18 Tornadoes. I was just stating in a more vibrant way that a 10% Probability of two or more Tornadoes inside the watch was a bit low... And, it was a Localized event, but I have seen them issue Tornado Watches for specific Storms that were 2 to 4 Counties. In a normal severe watch, the basic probs are 20/5, the probs being slightly higher would have meant nothing. You didn't mention only probs, you flat out said SPC f'd up. Acting like you know better then the pros that forecast, will get you nowhere. Especially when you know as little as you do. There's a reason why I don't post much when the forecasting time comes, because I'm not good at it. I observe, and learn. Seriously, read more and post less, and stop mucking up the severe threads with crap like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Ended up with 4 tornadoes with the last one being the best/longest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Ended up with 4 tornadoes with the last one being the best/longest one. Congrats...Nice way to end the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Congrats...Nice way to end the trip. Thank you sir, will have pics/videos up tonight or tomorrow. Staying in ICT, home by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Ended up with 4 tornadoes with the last one being the best/longest one. Congratulations. That's a huge win. Must have felt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Tim Marshall: "had an amazing day seeing 6 tornadoes including this one near Rago, KS that lasted at least 20 minutes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Ended up with 4 tornadoes with the last one being the best/longest one. Congrats, glad you guys had a great end to the trip. Amazing how one day can change the entire outlook of the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Ended up with 4 tornadoes with the last one being the best/longest one. Congrats! Hope you got good footage. I hope I can make the same claim when my chase begins in 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 I am always amazed, when you view a sat image such as this, the sheer volume/mass of air that is rising due to convection alone. Even the "small" high based supercells across CO are processing an incredible amount of air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Congrats! Hope you got good footage. I hope I can make the same claim when my chase begins in 13 days. Hopefully Ian, Jason and I will see you out there. We'll be in the Plains May 24 - June 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Gotta love mesoscale accident days. Congrats to everyone who saw something today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 This is just about what I expected in Minnesota for today, there have been a couple of reports of 1" hail in the MPX's area, and one report of a couple of 12" diameter trees down in a very localized area, seems to me like the SPC was spot on with only a 5% risk for today. If we would have had better shear values it would have been very interesting. Now looking at PW values of the 20/0z nam for tonight, along with the LLJ, it looks like eastern MN and the TC's metro is going to see some heavy rainfall's as the low leve jet overruns the slow moving cold front. That is welcomed news to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 00z GFS looks even worse for the middle-next week potential...ugh (everywhere, btw). What a tease that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.