brettjrob Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I might be nuts but I kinda like that pattern should it happen. I think it's fine for chasecationers, just disappointing for those of us trying to pick our battles day-by-day and living south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think it's fine for chasecationers, just disappointing for those of us trying to pick our battles day-by-day and living south of I-70. yeah i can hear that.. tho eventually something should kick out i'd think even in the uber ridge scenario. plus you get to see storms all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 At least we all know, that at some point in the 7 to 14 day range we should have some of Higher Severe threat, there is just a lot of questions relating to strength, location, and timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 the euro is not terribly amazing tho still argues for high plains type of stuff etc. people might want to consider dialing back the series of tornado outbreaks talk elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Hodograph in Southeast Kansas on from 12Z GFS at 132 Hours... Pretty Impressive, this is in an area with 2500+ CAPE, it would be pretty nice to see this verify (even though it won't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Hodograph in Southeast Kansas on from 12Z GFS at 132 Hours... Pretty Impressive, this is in an area with 2500+ CAPE, it would be pretty nice to see this verify (even though it won't). Parameters are meaningless if it's not going to rain. Big effin cap in place where you grabbed that hodo from. If it does verify, you're still not going to see anything. On top of that, while having a good curvature, the upper-level winds are a bit lacking on the speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I expect there will be at least one day of decent chasing somewhere from Oklahoma to South Dakota during the next two weeks, but trying to pinpoint down a specific day or the specific hazards at this point is impossible. I'm just gonna watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Parameters are meaningless if it's not going to rain. Big effin cap in place where you grabbed that hodo from. If it does verify, you're still not going to see anything. On top of that, while having a good curvature, the upper-level winds are a bit lacking on the speed. I did say it probably wasn't going to verify... Mainly because of the Cap... and also, you don't necessarily need great Upper-Level Winds to have a Sub-Regional Small-Scale Outbreak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I did say it probably wasn't going to verify... Mainly because of the Cap... and also, you don't necessarily need great Upper-Level Winds to have a Sub-Regional Small-Scale Outbreak... The atmosphere could very well verify... verify in that it will do exactly what the model is showing and not rain. I don't see why you're bothering looking at the parameters of an area that's not forecast to be anywhere close to getting precipitation. I'm well aware that you don't need great upper-level winds for tornadoes, I'm just discussing some of the flaws of the atmosphere... beyond the hideously-large cap, that is. I don't even know why you decided to post that hodo in the first place. It's irrelevant if there aren't going to be any storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 the euro is not terribly amazing tho still argues for high plains type of stuff etc. people might want to consider dialing back the series of tornado outbreaks talk elsewhere. Was a bit better than the 00z run, IMO, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I did say it probably wasn't going to verify... Mainly because of the Cap... and also, you don't necessarily need great Upper-Level Winds to have a Sub-Regional Small-Scale Outbreak... No you don't, but they help. And he is right...pulling soundings from just anywhere is useless if nothing is going to happen there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Unexpected storms have formed in Minnesota. Wait to see what these do. Just "garden verity" type Wunderweather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Was a bit better than the 00z run, IMO, at least. Personally I am not sure why everyone was getting so amped up to begin with, never looked spectacular. SW flow is always a cause for concern in any setup. I agree with David R...there will be severe days in there, there is no doubt. It is just going to be more localized and highly dependent upon much smaller scale perturbations that are impossible to forecast at this juncture. It is nice to see an uptick in the flow pattern, but I doubt there will be anything spectacular or outrageous. Still...nice to see a return of weather overall. At least something will be happening in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Unexpected storms have formed in Minnesota. Wait to see what these do. Wunderweather: Ha, I am in MN now. I just toured Chanhassen and saw those towers going up when Ieft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 No you don't, but they help. And he is right...pulling soundings from just anywhere is useless if nothing is going to happen there. Given it's 5/6 days out, I don't think anybody has the right to say something is going to happen, or not going to happen. I can't assume that it is going to verify, or that storms are going to fire there. Nor can you, or him assume nothing is going to happen. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Given it's 5/6 days out, I don't think anybody has the right to say something is going to happen, or not going to happen. I can't assume that it is going to verify, or that storms are going to fire there. Nor can you, or him assume nothing is going to happen. Just sayin'. You are new to weather, and I love your weather enthusiasm, but what you just said was asinine. I can't say it enough....sometimes it is just better to read more and then post. Think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 You are new to weather, and I love your weather enthusiasm, but what you just said was asinine. I can't say it enough....sometimes it is just better to read more and then post. Think about that. I loled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I wonder MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0454 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 182154Z - 182300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. DISCUSSION...A N-S BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR STC SWD TO JUST N OF FRM...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE T-TD SPREADS ARE APPROACHING 50 F. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG MAY PROMOTE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL WITH RESULTANT SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Given it's 5/6 days out, I don't think anybody has the right to say something is going to happen, or not going to happen. I can't assume that it is going to verify, or that storms are going to fire there. Nor can you, or him assume nothing is going to happen. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 the 18z gfs always performs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 You are new to weather, and I love your weather enthusiasm, but what you just said was asinine. I can't say it enough....sometimes it is just better to read more and then post. Think about that. ha. New? Not exactly. I'm just like reed and more of a wishcaster... I know all of the 'technical' terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Have liked northwest/western OK for days now as the GFS has been amazingly consistent in place of cold front/dryline intersection up around Woodward with the dryline extending south of there. Exact placement and speed of the wave will be key as will as quality of moisture return. For the past few days the GFS has been pegging 65 dews into this area while the NAM has been much weaker on moisture return with dews to around 60. Moisture did indeed mix out this afternoon across TX/OK as it's still shallow and the good moisture (dews >65 degrees are still confined to the gulf coast). The RAP is trying to get mid 60 dews up to CDS/SPS by 16z tomorrow but I would think those would mix out as sfc heating increases. Don't like further north up into KS given the mid-level flow is parallel to the initiating boundary as storms could get messy as things fire in the late afternoon. The south target looks much better IMO for something discrete. Tomorrow sort of reminds me of 4/25/09 in the TX PH (larger western trof with southwest flow over the area) but dryline/cold front intersection fired off several discrete supercells but couldn't produce due to the high T/Td spreads. If we can get dews around 61/62 tomorrow evening there should be a tornado threat with any discrete supercell near/after sunset as bases lower and the LLJ increases. Looking at a storm relative sense based off the hodographs from Woodward/Elk City/Altus, if a storm can turn right it could do some good things at/after 0z tomorrow evening. The amount of backing along the dryline along I-40 is pretty impressive in response to the p-falls across the TX PH as the sfc low becomes established tomorrow afternoon/evening. We are staying in Hays tonight and will head south in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I think that at this juncture, all we can say is that there will be something chaseable in the Plains next week, which is a huge improvement from what we've seen this May so far. And yes, given the trend this year -- junky ejections, boiling EMLs, and ankle-deep moisture, some skepticism is warranted WRT a larger-scale outbreak. But I think we can all agree that the pattern is going to improve, for at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 ha. New? Not exactly. I'm just like reed and more of a wishcaster... I know all of the 'technical' terms. Dude... chill. Most of these guys are far more experienced than you or me. The occasional enthusiastic post is cool, but best way to learn is to lurk and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 GFS folds to king Euro. Still a good outbreak in the NRN plains DAY 4-5. The reason I liked the setup u couple days back is that it was showing a multi day outbreak potential pretty far south, which means models can totally screw up the pattern and there's still a decent outbreak, just shorter and further north. California looks to get hit with a decent ULL day 7 and probably some dry Tstorms with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 GFS folds to king Euro. Still a good outbreak in the NRN plains DAY 4-5. The reason I liked the setup u couple days back is that it was showing a multi day outbreak potential pretty far south, which means models can totally screw up the pattern and there's still a decent outbreak, just shorter and further north. California looks to get hit with a decent ULL day 7 and probably some dry Tstorms with it. I'm not even sold on the D4-5 "outbreak." Moisture may be an issue Tuesday, and juxtaposition of upper support and instability an issue Wednesday. After that, the whole thing comes off the rails, as the death ridge continues its march westward with each run. By D8-9, the ridge is backing into the Plains. As others have already covered well, the only given here is a string of ill-defined SLGT days in the Dakotas to perhaps NE/WY/CO. If this lack of ejections verifies, it might be the most brutal May in a long time. At least 2006 and 2009 didn't tease us like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 ha. New? Not exactly. I'm just like reed and more of a wishcaster... I know all of the 'technical' terms. I think the point is to stay in the shallow end for a while. You may know 'technical' terms, but I have learned that this isn't a place for rabid wish casting. Just from reading posts from here has taught me a ton, and shown me just how little I know even though I have spent hundreds of hours studying severe weather. Sometimes being so enthusiastic about something can blind you to important facts, and these guys are very good at pointing those out. It's not being pessimistic, it's being a professional and seeing past what you want to see and what is reality. Sitting back and reading the evolution of events around here is fascinating sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I'm not even sold on the D4-5 "outbreak." Moisture may be an issue Tuesday, and juxtaposition of upper support and instability an issue Wednesday. After that, the whole thing comes off the rails, as the death ridge continues its march westward with each run. By D8-9, the ridge is backing into the Plains. As others have already covered well, the only given here is a string of ill-defined SLGT days in the Dakotas to perhaps NE/WY/CO. If this lack of ejections verifies, it might be the most brutal May in a long time. At least 2006 and 2009 didn't tease us like this. the first wave keeps speeding up it seems.. the environment out ahead of it is now not quite what it was modeled for a few runs past days. euro could look better... but not sure anything outside d5 or so on either means a whole lot. even within that range i would expect some more significant shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 I'm not even sold on the D4-5 "outbreak." Moisture may be an issue Tuesday, and juxtaposition of upper support and instability an issue Wednesday. After that, the whole thing comes off the rails, as the death ridge continues its march westward with each run. By D8-9, the ridge is backing into the Plains. As others have already covered well, the only given here is a string of ill-defined SLGT days in the Dakotas to perhaps NE/WY/CO. If this lack of ejections verifies, it might be the most brutal May in a long time. At least 2006 and 2009 didn't tease us like this. Back to the doom and gloom. And reber, I echo what wxniss posted earlier, specifically chill out. To be honest, there really has been a rather low level of consistency regarding the magnitude of this (maybe not the areal extent, but the concentration/significance of said area that is affected and not placed under a thermonuclear EML), although the current trend is not pretty at all and the death ridge this year has been rather crazy (and equally annoying for people liking interesting weather). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 I'm interested to see what happens farther east, but that's for a different thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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