reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 SPC Day 4-8 Outlook.... ...DISCUSSION... ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH HIGH CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE FURTHER DAMPENING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS ON D4. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...WEAKENING FLOW FIELDS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT DISCREPANCIES WITH THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH BECOME MORE APPARENT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BROADER/MORE RICHLY MOIST WARM SECTOR APPEARS MORE PROBABLE RELATIVE TO THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CNTRL STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL D7 AND BEYOND DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LATTER TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I do believe the only word for what the ECMWF shows next Friday (D+9, I know) in the central High Plains is "epic." Possibly some less strongly-forced mischief the two days prior, as well. This Saturday in OK/TX looks quite marginal, but should at least give the tour groups a break from Plains sightseeing. im sure im being annoying at this point but i really hope the euro is more right than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Figure the SPC may keep punting days 4-8, and rightfully so. Remember it has to be 30%, and this weather pattern does not lend itself to making that kind of call four days out. Day 3 they favor Kansas over Minn. Seems reasonable if a wave can develop along the front. Despite JIT moisture, low level winds would back a bit. Looking ahead to next week: If that Euro is perfect, that would promote a day 4-8 outlook but I'm not holding my breath. All that said, I'm not at all bearish. Looks like a few chances of localized set-ups. Jet energy pushing into the Northwest will be a plus for the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley some days leading into, including, and following Memorial Day weekend. Too early to put faith in day 5+ surface charts, soundings, indices, and QPF placement. However one could start to consider making travel plans to the Heartland. Too bad I can't. Finally, does Central/West have a "Banter" thread? Perfect place for hyperbole, wish-casting, and OMG 284 hour charts. Other regions have it. Then serious forecasts and obs are in the regional Forecast thread. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Finally, does Central/West have a "Banter" thread? Perfect place for hyperbole, wish-casting, and OMG 284 hour charts. Other regions have it. Then serious forecasts and obs are in the regional Forecast thread. Cheers! considering how dead it's been not sure what the issue is... now that stuff is closing in we won't have as much talk about super long range. though some of it was probably valid at least as far as pattern recognition goes. i know like a week ago there was concern of a death ridge and the end of the season even when there were hints of a change afoot already whether or not the details were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 e central u.s. steroids ridge on 12z euro.. trough has trouble kicking east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 GFS wants to throw an anniversary party on Wednesday (5/23) for the area affected in the 2008 outbreak. Less favorable thereafter for the Plains, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 GFS wants to throw an anniversary party on Wednesday (5/23) for the area affected in the 2008 outbreak. Less favorable thereafter for the Plains, though. good thing the gfs sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 18z gfs back to chasing utopia in the long range. it handles these pattern shifts really well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 At least it looks like we'll see a broad return of deep low level moisture to much of the Plains and Midwest with some items of interest to watch. Hopefully the models aren't overestimating dewpoints. It's time for moisture to move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 If this oncoming trough in the day 7-10 range lives up to it's full potential... Oh my..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 18z gfs back to chasing utopia in the long range. it handles these pattern shifts really well... The 18z GFS day 10 would shift the threat farther east, and while the 12z ECMWF looks good Weds-Thursday, the death ridge it builds by day 9-10 certainly wouldn't be good for business from a chaser's perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 The 18z GFS day 10 would shift the threat farther east, and while the 12z ECMWF looks good Weds-Thursday, the death ridge it builds by day 9-10 certainly wouldn't be good for business from a chaser's perspective. From my perspective the GFS has very little run to run continuity but more runs than not keep dropping troughs in so that's a hopeful sign at least. Euro ridge was a little problematic tho with a west coast trough I'd think the N Plains and upslope would work. Ensembles are not quite as ridgey either. Not to mention a few days ago things looked pretty bleak. Tho if you go off the season thus far probably shouldn't expect large outbreak after large outbreak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Would love to see 18z GFS 150h verify. The low level jet looks perfect. 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS are agreeing on relative placement of the cold front, but there is a difference the cyclogenesis of this system. Hopefully the moisture return is correct with the models this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Maybe merge the two threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 From my perspective the GFS has very little run to run continuity but more runs than not keep dropping troughs in so that's a hopeful sign at least. Euro ridge was a little problematic tho with a west coast trough I'd think the N Plains and upslope would work. Ensembles are not quite as ridgey either. Not to mention a few days ago things looked pretty bleak. Tho if you go off the season thus far probably shouldn't expect large outbreak after large outbreak.. I agree with your thoughts. I was looking at the models verbatim which is probably a bad idea anyway in a pattern change where run to run continuity will likely be poor for a few more days at least. And the GFS has been showing very large run to run changes. The most hopeful thing from a chaser/severe weather lover's perspective is definitely that things don't look as bleak anymore, and could get quite active at least during the mid week period if things pan out. And regarding the euro ridge, you're probably right, if it were to verify, it might the far northern Plains and even the Canadian prairies though, to be out from under what will probably be a very stout cap for the rest of the region. It'll be an interesting week to track how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Should remove the other thread and keep this one, only has 2 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I agree with your thoughts. I was looking at the models verbatim which is probably a bad idea anyway in a pattern change where run to run continuity will likely be poor for a few more days at least. And the GFS has been showing very large run to run changes. The most hopeful thing from a chaser/severe weather lover's perspective is definitely that things don't look as bleak anymore, and could get quite active at least during the mid week period if things pan out. And regarding the euro ridge, you're probably right, if it were to verify, it might the far northern Plains and even the Canadian prairies though, to be out from under what will probably be a very stout cap for the rest of the region. It'll be an interesting week to track how things evolve. I just hope it's not one and done.. particularly if I can't make the main show should it kick out for Wed. Oh well.. perhaps it will be a sign not to storm chase in the future. I think the Euro pattern is OK if not as spectacular as 0z. I would not necessarily think it'll be 100% right either though the signal is certainly there for eastern u.s. ridging--just a question of where and how long. I like the northern Plains.. prettier than the southern Plains. Grateful (as are others im sure) that I'll be too busy to look over models from Sat-Wed most of the time (and on a 13 hour time difference)... need a break from looking so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 00z GFS is interesting...very. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 It wants to throw one hell of an anniversary party for the 5/24 and 5/25 outbreak last year...and it just keeps going... I'd say it'd be more than kidneys that chasers would sacrifice to have that verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 And the Euro through 144 looks like no slouch either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I still have vacation this upcoming week, had made plans out east, but now I am rethinking them. I wish I could wait until the NAM comes into range to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 for archive purposes... as progged, we'd go from one of the most quiet weeks in May to one of the most active we've had reasonable run-to-run consistency on powerful jet energy rounding the trough, it'll be interesting to see when SPC Day 4-8 pulls the trigger on 30% probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Nevermind, Euro going steroid-injected ridge again. Has the dreaded 594 mb contour later in the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Nevermind, Euro going steroid-injected ridge again. Has the dreaded 594 mb contour later in the run... And just when things were looking up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm actually not that happy with the 00z suite. GFS is beginning to shove next Wednesday's threat east of prime chase country (even moreso on the 06z run), and everything after that is fairly strung-out. Euro looks better for Wednesday, but any threats thereafter would be confined to the Dakotas at best, as the Midwest Death Ridge of doom moves in. Very low-confidence forecast for the medium range right now, especially given it's late May. Suppose we should all be happy that seasonable CAPE and southwest flow are almost certain to return after the 2.5 week hiatus, but TBH, one solid, synoptically-evident type day would be a nice payoff for all that waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 lol at the euro pushing the western trough west late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I wouldn't mind the 00Z GFS 168-hour verifying, has decent upper-level winds, pretty nice 850mb shear, plenty of moisture, and 2000+ CAPE all in Kansas... But as expected, there probably will be some caping issues in Kansas, and definitely Oklahoma, but not so much in Iowa... and there is definitely not a lack of 500mb mid level winds in Kansas, and even more so in Iowa... with 70+ Knots all-around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I wouldn't mind the 00Z GFS 168-hour verifying, has decent upper-level winds, pretty nice 850mb shear, plenty of moisture, and 2000+ CAPE all in Kansas... But as expected, there probably will be some caping issues in Kansas, and definitely Oklahoma, but not so much in Iowa... and there is definitely not a lack of 500mb mid level winds in Kansas, and even more so in Iowa... with 70+ Knots all-around... id take it for sure.. storm motions would be quite fast tho of course. the gfs has seemed to keep speeding up at least on the intial ejection. it has however liked the iowa region on numerous runs... but the differences between the gfs and euro are now fairly large so not sure what to think. i wouldnt be surprised to see the gfs totally cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS is nothing special. As Brett said, certainly a huge improvement, but the huge blocking high across the eastern US dominates the western trough. As usual this year, ejections are weak and junky...either in some sort of lame positive tilt nature...or weak perturbations translating away and slowly breaking down the larger scale trough in weak pieces. The latter can actually deliver more localized events, and never underestimate the warm front setting up shop along the high plains...moist upslope flow and long looping hodos can yield substantial severe weather events, slow moving supercells, multiple rounds of initiation, etc. In terms of synoptic evident atmospheric domination, we will have to see...recent trends are not great. But that doesn't mean a lot of excitement on the plains is not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Definitely looks more like the euro this run. Still such poor consistency on the GFS particularly. I might be nuts but I kinda like that pattern should it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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