LocoAko Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Figured we could make this its own thread. Looks like an isolated threat for showers and thunderstorms later today. There is a solid instability axis ahead of the prefrontal trough where surface-based CAPE is already ~2000 J/kg in most of NJ with LI's of -3 to -5 in the region. 0-6 km bulk shear values are 30-35 kts in the region which isn't amazing but should be enough for multicellular storm organization, and larger values are advecting from the west to the northern half of the area. Mid-level lapse rates aren't exceptionally strong and low-level lapse rates are lacking from the cloudiness that was in the region but it has mostly burned off except for high clouds. Here in New Brunswick it is 77/67 currently. The only ingredient that is somewhat lacking is a good source of lift, but the prefrontal trough over eastern PA should be sufficient and the incoming cold front should bring with it some showers and thunderstorms. For what its worth, the Craven SigSvr Index is up to 25 southwest of NYC and there's even some moisture convergence showing up along the NJ coast. Doesn't look like a widespread severe thunderstorm event but I know I'm not alone in getting eager for any sort of thunderstorm. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for NY State now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 we are finally getting rid of the mid level clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 the mid/upper Hudson valley looks in good shape, already saw one cell fire north of Poughkeepsie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 FWIW, 12z NAM simulated radar (e-wall) doesn't have the line making it into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Yeah, the moisture seems to have really mixed out - my dewpoint is down to 58F. Womp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 So no storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 So no storms? Yea in the Berkshires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Yea in the Berkshires Damn, I was pumped up, those maps had lots of cool things on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Damn, I was pumped up, those maps had lots of cool things on them. haha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 haha... golf dude? come on, summer is wasting away, only four more weeks till we start losing sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Well, I did say isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 golf dude? come on, summer is wasting away, only four more weeks till we start losing sun Very soon...im pretty busy next 3 weekends, so maybe 2nd weekend june... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Very soon...im pretty busy next 3 weekends, so maybe 2nd weekend june... i play weekly, let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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