weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I am glad nothing is developing near CT yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Just saw a report of dime sized hail on my Twitter feed from that cell in Columbia County near the town of Livingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I am glad nothing is developing near CT yet. I don't know, but it looks like the best action is headed well N of CT and it won't be for many more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 First Glipses of sun out this way. 68/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I don't know, but it looks like the best action is headed well N of CT and it won't be for many more hours. I do think the BEST stuff will be north of us, however, as the front draws closer we should see some more action develop and this heating will help keep that activity going and perhaps intensify it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 looks like a bust for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 looks like a bust for most. Most ppl outlined nw zones for anything significant and I think nw mass will get into a decent line later. But yea pesky clouds. Still really soupy out. 69/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 A little worried that the best of the dynamics may scoot north of us and it winds up being a mostly NNE event. The southern end of the line near BGM looks weak and meaningless. Champlain Valley south of BTV getting smacked good right now. Nice bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 A little worried that the best of the dynamics may scoot north of us and it winds up being a mostly NNE event. The southern end of the line near BGM looks weak and meaningless. Champlain Valley south of BTV getting smacked good right now. Nice bow echo. Yeah I think they are following the best dynamics. I suppose we could see late development from I-90 on south, but the SPC WRF also hinted at this being more north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The 16z HRRR has a decent looking line moving through MA around 23z to 0z and stuff working into NW CT...shear looks pretty decent and instaiblity as well...perhaps cooling aloft will help us to keep the instability a tad longer than normal despite loss of sun. All going to depend on where the best dynamics/support are though...right now somewhat displaced from the stronger instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 A little worried that the best of the dynamics may scoot north of us and it winds up being a mostly NNE event. The southern end of the line near BGM looks weak and meaningless. Champlain Valley south of BTV getting smacked good right now. Nice bow echo. My girlfriend is at castleton state just West of Rutland. She driving home to ct tonight at 6...big time storms firing to her as near lake George. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sun is finally out here...68/61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The ULL following the cold front could allow for storms along the actual cold front to stay in tact into the evening. However, those cells will probably be less widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sun out in BOS finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 My girlfriend is at castleton state just West of Rutland. She driving home to ct tonight at 6...big time storms firing to her as near lake George. Im living with a kid from castleton this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 50/50 sun clouds here since about 3. Up to 73.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Plenty of instability down here with MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg, but best shear and synoptic scale forcing is north of SNE. Not ready to call it a bust by any means yet, but the present trend isn't too encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 The sun's been out strongly here for a couple of hours and it's actually quite warm...just about 76/67. Sucks that the best stuff is going north as the environment down here is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Plenty of instability down here with MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg, but best shear and synoptic scale forcing is north of SNE. Not ready to call it a bust by any means yet, but the present trend isn't too encouraging. Yeah. The models trended north at the last minute with best QG forcing which will probably stick a fork in the threat in southern areas. You can see on the 12z models that heights really don't start falling until after 00z tonight. That's probably why convection is having a tough time getting going to our west even with ample instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 One thing I noticed earlier this afternoon was that the past couple runs of SREF ensembles had almost no qpf for SNE, except perhaps far W and N MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 That's the main question right now...once that better forcing/dynamics do arrive will we have lost a great deal of instability? I think much of western/central MA still have a shot for some good action, however, down across CT we may be just too far south. The southern extent of any activity should scrape northern sections but it may not be all that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 AMOUT . Downplaying FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 AMOUT . Downplaying FTW AMOUT thought what? Just about everyone knew it was central/eastern NY into VT that was going to get into the BEST action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The 17z HRR wants to pop something around 6 PM across northern CT then has a somewhat broken line moving thorugh between 23z-1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Meanwhile...they just update the forecast for Barrow Alaska .... <a name="content" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, 'San Serif'; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">.REST OF TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW...RAIN...OR FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 To our west (like across NE PA/SE NY lower dewpoints have been mixing down...that too could also be playing a factor in inhibiting convection from forming...although being removed from the better forcing/dynamics is likely a larger factor than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Meanwhile...they just update the forecast for Barrow Alaska .... <a name="content" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, 'San Serif'; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">.REST OF TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW...RAIN...OR FREEZING RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. Are you sure this isn't the forecast for West Chesterfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Nice outflow boundary visible on the KBGM radar. Hopefully this will serve as the initiation boundary for a line of storms that will impact us later on as it moves east into some of this unstable air. Another little popcorn cell just to my west in the Hudson Valley. Many times these things initiate on the east flank of the Helderbergs due to valley breeze convergence and then feed off of the enhanced instability in the warmer Hudson Valley before dying as they move into more stable air over the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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