weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The RAP now has a much larger area of 2500 J/KG of SBcape later on with pockets of 3000 to our north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 though no one is mentioning SNH , looks like a good spot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 About 35-40 knots of effective bulk shear, 0-1km bulk shear though is pretty much right now, only around 10 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 latest RAP has nice overlap of max CAPE and EHI along NY-CT border, an area somewhat south of the area highlighted on the MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Kevin asked me what time the sun would come out and I told him probably by 2:00-2:30 we'd start seeing more substantial clearing take place and looks like that is happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 though no one is mentioning SNH , looks like a good spot here. Still pretty dark here, haven't had a peak of sun all day. Visible satellite shows some clearing coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Full sun here with towering cumulus here now. We cleared out around 12-12:30 PM, so it took a while here too. Temperatures shooting into the low to mid 70s now, so this area should be good to go for some potential fireworks later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 latest RAP has nice overlap of max CAPE and EHI along NY-CT border, an area somewhat south of the area highlighted on the MD There certainly will be some decent 0-3km helicity a bit later on which will really help to enhance the supercell threat along with the large hail potential. 0-1km shear and 0-2km shear is not as impressive and this will keep the threat for any brief spinups low, however, can't completely rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 SUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Still pretty dark here, haven't had a peak of sun all day. Visible satellite shows some clearing coming soon. Yeah, though I'm more worried about the conditioning of the airmass upstream. We've had some bright spots here but no clearing, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 another thing is that it's only 2pm now and prime heating...we're essentially dealing with summer sun angle now, so it'll get to work quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Clouds holding tough here, sun come out for a minute or two then quickly fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 another thing is that it's only 2pm now and prime heating...we're essentially dealing with summer sun angle now, so it'll get to work quickly. Temps/instability should jump rather quickly once the sun comes out. Thank God (at least down here) there is no activity around so this will give us a solid 1-2 hours of heating and like you said, it's prime heating time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Warnings starting to go up in NY/VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 There certainly will be some decent 0-3km helicity a bit later on which will really help to enhance the supercell threat along with the large hail potential. 0-1km shear and 0-2km shear is not as impressive and this will keep the threat for any brief spinups low, however, can't completely rule it out. yeah... i think hodos would look less crappy if low level winds were stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 yeah... i think hodos would look less crappy if low level winds were stronger Yup...one bad thing about today, very little in the way of low-level shear or otherwise the threat for a few isolated tornadoes would exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Hvy hvy sun is out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 With the sun coming out to heat things up that will transition the Cape column from skinny to more fat. Ncape values approaching 0.2 in areas where the sun has been out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 DXR reporting a dewpoint of 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I am in Tolland now, and steady drizzle.... WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Those storms are firing up QUICK in central NY. 10 minutes after this screen shot more cells popped up. Litchfield and Hartford,CT now under a Thunderstorm Watch already outlined in Pink.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Just off to our west llvl flow starting to increase to about 15-20 knots or so...looks like just along and just ahead of the front...hopefully this can outrace the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Boundary into western CT...DXR has SE winds with OXC SW winds and BDR with W winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Oh, ha! I didn't even see this thread and posted the watch box info in the other - D'OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Good lord it got hot when the sun came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The problem over eastern zone is that we have this plaguing high cloud running up the coastal plain and this is not allowing the better insolation from getting down to where it can heat the ground ...subsequently mixing this stability out. It does this around here from time to time and it is deeply annoying - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Mostly cloudy 66/64 here. Looks like my outline of ALY-PSF will work out per HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm wondering if this clearing edge moving east through the area will get east in time to generate some instability - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm wondering if this clearing edge moving east through the area will get east in time to generate some instability - The good news is at it progresses east the cloud deck is actually beginning to break up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Underneath the anvil from that cell in Columbia County NY with filtered sun. Dark skies off to my SW. I'll have to watch where it goes, but it'll probably stay to my south if it holds together as it moves into the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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