weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 What's interesting is the 9z SPC SREF really hits southern NH and central MA as the target area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 What's interesting is the 9z SPC SREF really hits southern NH and central MA as the target area. HRR really looks nice with discreet cells for Wxman Mitch, Pete and then Hubb Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 What's interesting is the 9z SPC SREF really hits southern NH and central MA as the target area. It sort of targets them with initiation from the pre frontal trough I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 HRR really looks nice with discreet cells for Wxman Mitch, Pete and then Hubb Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 New SPC outlook has 30% hail and 30% damaging winds for eastern NY into VT/NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 It sort of targets them with initiation from the pre frontal trough I think. Yeah that's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sun has poked out in Windsor over the last few mins..In and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Clouds have really hung tough here around Albany this morning. Looking at the satellite when I got in...honestly expected to be partly-mostly sunny by 10am. Here we are almost noon, and I'm just finally getting the first peaks of sun. Looks like some cumulus already starting to pop just south of here over the Catskills who have had some sun for the past couple hours. SPC did mention possibility of the differential heating igniting convection ahead of the front, which would lead to some discrete cells. Curious to see if that plays out. I'm nervous of that happening then squashing chances for a decent squall line later in the afternoon. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sun still not out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I am in Wales Ma on Stafford Ct line, and sun was trying to poke through, but clouds hanging tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 don't forget MPM wiz.....also Vt is starting to clear out nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 This junk looks close to burning off though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Started brightening quite a bit here in the last 15 minutes or so and my optimism is increasing. Might have blue skies here fairly soon. 65.5/64.8 Fail. Solar radiation graph fell off a cliff right after I posted and we're back in the murk. Assuming things do go well, I'm glad to see the focus in the latest SPC shifted to the NW of us in the valley. The 30% wind contour is almost certainly associated with linear mode convection near the front. If it winds up being oriented in the same manner as the contour, we'd likely see enhanced southerly flow in the valley out ahead... I'll sign for the much lower chance at a supercell ripping nickels than a 45 mph gust from a broken squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sun has been out for a while here and clouds are already forming over the mountain tops. Just cancelled little kid lacrosse practice for later this afternoon. K-3 kids, a field with no shelter, and the potential for lightning sounded like a bad combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 how do the parmater's look for the valley's or generally non mountainous areas of VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 how do the parmater's look for the valley's or generally non mountainous areas of VT? Looks quite good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN NY...VT...NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161627Z - 161830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ONCE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FIRST IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN PA INTO WRN NY...BUT INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOW WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 40S F. FARTHER E...ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WAS PERSISTING FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN AND CNTRL NY...ON THE EDGE OF THE ADVANCING UPPER VORT. THE THIRD AREA WAS OVER SERN NY AND VT...NEAR THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WHERE MUCAPE WAS APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND LITTLE CIN...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM BY 18-19Z. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE FRONT...BUT OTHER STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER E IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. A WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...PERHAPS MORE WITH THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY WHERE STORM MODE COULD BENEFIT FORM MERGED OUTFLOWS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2KM...BUT...WINDS WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN A WEAK...BRIEF SPIN-UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 SE NY into W CT should def be watched as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 That's probably the strongest wording we could ask for in an event like this. Impressive MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 If the strongest shear wasn't lagging behind the front I could see a low end moderate risk being warranted over the MCD area. I can't wait to see if we get any discrete cells...we could see several hail reports in the 1.25''-1.50'' range...and some perhaps 1.75''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 This has phail written all over it for here imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'm going to take a shower. Sometimes in the past when we have been soaked in with clouds I'd take a shower and when I came out the sun started breaking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 This has phail written all over it for here imo Was meh to begin with, best is North of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 yup best is clearly over MPM land up thru VT (for new england) today ....small chance for W Ct it would seem (if they brighten) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Blue skies here in enfield with sun peeking through. North and west of hfd/baf has severe threat. Think jet support and qg forcing may help extend thunder risk east even with more stable boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 We have sun again in Windsor..Still lots of clouds, but sun has just burned thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Blue skies here in enfield with sun peeking through. North and west of hfd/baf has severe threat. Think jet support and qg forcing may help extend thunder risk east even with more stable boundary layer. Very cloudy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued and includes all of the Ct. Valley from Hartford north WWUS40 KWNS 161718 WWP0 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012 WS 0280 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26030 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Get out of the shower to a watch!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WESTERN MAINE MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE EASTERN NEW YORK NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA VERMONT EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEWPORT VERMONT TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY/NORTHEAST PA AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND LITTLE CINH. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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