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5/16 WESTERN NE Severe Threat Disco


ChrisM

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NW of here...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

918 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN OXFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...

* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

* AT 910 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF WATERFORD...OR

14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BETHEL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

WATERFORD AND SOUTH PARIS.

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Those events where the base of the trough dips into SNE from the north seem to be the best producers around here. Part of it may be due to the source region of the airmass at mid levels. The trajectory would bring more continental air in from the west...and thus steeper lapse rates in the mid levels. Also, you are in the right entrance region of jet.

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18z NAM 6 hour 250 hpa forecast. Notice the sort of convoluted jet streaks. I think initially many of us were in a zone of subsidence with the unfavorable jet location but that began to improve from N to S after 00z.

The models yesterday kept us in a more favorable location in relation to the jet streak which would have argued for storms developing earlier around here but obvviously that didn't happen. Timing is a bit late for svr but we're still getting a nice light show thanks to modest MUCAPE (Scooter mentioned the mid level lapse rates) plus some QG ascent providing a little help.

post-40-0-51885200-1337218765_thumb.png

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18z NAM 6 hour 250 hpa forecast. Notice the sort of convoluted jet streaks. I think initially many of us were in a zone of subsidence with the unfavorable jet location but that began to improve from N to S after 00z.

The models yesterday kept us in a more favorable location in relation to the jet streak which would have argued for storms developing earlier around here but obvviously that didn't happen. Timing is a bit late for svr but we're still getting a nice light show thanks to modest MUCAPE (Scooter mentioned the mid level lapse rates) plus some QG ascent providing a little help.

Good points. BTW, OKX 700-500 lapse rates 7.1C which is good!

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18z NAM 6 hour 250 hpa forecast. Notice the sort of convoluted jet streaks. I think initially many of us were in a zone of subsidence with the unfavorable jet location but that began to improve from N to S after 00z.

The models yesterday kept us in a more favorable location in relation to the jet streak which would have argued for storms developing earlier around here but obvviously that didn't happen. Timing is a bit late for svr but we're still getting a nice light show thanks to modest MUCAPE (Scooter mentioned the mid level lapse rates) plus some QG ascent providing a little help.

This is a great point...didn't even think of this. That would also explain as to why we started to see rapid decay in the cloud deck after 1-2 PM...sure the sun helped but subsidence would also excel this process.

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Surprisingly not, only swatted away two mosquitoes. The constant inflow into the storm was strong enough to keep them grounded I guess. It was definitely wet enough.

A couple of former teachers I worked with almost bought the place back in the day to operate the ski area...

Anyway, I will be unplugging my computer, etc until the morning in a few. No more fried electronics

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