Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 SPC has expanded the Slight Risk in their 13z update this morning, so I thought I'd start a new thread. I agree fairly well with the SPC's latest outlook: ...MUCH OF SC/NC/VA/MD... 12Z VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CLEARING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS EARLY AS 17Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTENING/IMPLIED ASCENT FROM NRN GA INTO ERN TN/WRN NC AND SC THAT MAY AID IN EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT NWD INTO VA AND MD. SEASONABLY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY AFTERNOON...WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL OCCURRING AMIDST MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 good call on that extension! Good to see you somewhat bullish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Some sun trying to peak through right now in Calverton, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Some sun trying to peak through right now in Calverton, MD We've had peaks of sun in Gaithersburg... cloudier now than it was a little earlier. Cloud bases are pretty low... good sign for us tornado enthusiasts. RAP keeps the LCLs down around 500-750 m during the middle of the afternoon, which is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Darn, right on the northern fringe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 We've had peaks of sun in Gaithersburg... cloudier now than it was a little earlier. Cloud bases are pretty low... good sign for us tornado enthusiasts. RAP keeps the LCLs down around 500-750 m during the middle of the afternoon, which is pretty good. Massive wedge tornado in on Ian's street...book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 /hesitantly optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 SPC mesoanalysis page already showing 1000-1500+ surface CAPE in central and eastern VA, with DC on the 1000 J/kg contour. Vis. sat showing some good clearing in VA: SFC-500mb bulk shear only forecast to be around 25 kts in the region per the 11z RAP... could use just 10-15 kts more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 sun is out big time here. Let it cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 meh #savethesevere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 RAP says at 17z, 2000-2500 MUCAPE over southern MD and S DELMARVA Peninsula , rapidly drops off after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sun is out full force in Bmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sun this morning, now stuck under low clouds at about 70 degrees. I'm not expecting much being that I'm on the western edge and under cloud cover now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 i saw some cloud verticality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 CAPE on the SPC meso analysis is climbing faster than what the models are showing... already 2000+ in southeast VA. Keep it climbing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 CAPE on the SPC meso analysis is climbing faster than what the models are showing... already 2000+ in southeast VA. Keep it climbing! ~1500 SBCAPE, 500-1000 MLCAPE at 10 AM SPC meso for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 No idea what happened with the 12z NAM, but the CAPE forecast is way off, showing about what half of what it actually is at 15z. Looks like we get to throw that solution out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 No idea what happened with the 12z NAM, but the CAPE forecast is way off, showing about what half of what it actually is at 15z. Looks like we get to throw that solution out. How do you know it's the NAM thats off, and not the SPC Meso? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 good to see ellinwood getting the failure out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 good to see ellinwood getting the failure out of the way now. I see tense inter-state car rides in your future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 How do you know it's the NAM thats off, and not the SPC Meso? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm? Because the NAM initializes with good CAPE and then from 12z an area of 1500-2000+ CAPE drops to 750-1000 at 15z good to see ellinwood getting the failure out of the way now. My goal for today is to get in a tornado warning. Highly doubt we actually get a tornado, but you gotta #chaseeverything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Because the NAM initializes with good CAPE and then from 12z an area of 1500-2000+ CAPE drops to 750-1000 at 15z My goal for today is to get in a tornado warning. Highly doubt we actually get a tornado, but you gotta #chaseeverything! no work today, lucky duck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 no work today, lucky duck I'm at work I get around around 1pm, so we'll be in the Fredericksburg area with plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I see tense inter-state car rides in your future... Should they take two cars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I'm at work I get around around 1pm, so we'll be in the Fredericksburg area with plenty of time. As long as cell goes over the suitland federal center Im in excellent position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Should they take two cars? Nah, the trunk has plenty of space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 1500z SPC meso -- .5 sig hail parameter, 50 on the MCS maintenance, 25-30 kts effective bulk shear, 6.5-7.0 C/KM LL Lapse Rate, ~6 C/KM ML Lapse Rate, 1000 MLCAPE DC South (1500 in SE VA) 1500-2000 SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Nah, the trunk has plenty of space Do they draw straws about who gets to lie in there? First meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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