stormspotterlive Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looking like we have 2 chances for storms coming up 1. Overnight tonight and tomorrow morning there is a threat for weaker elevated storms within the heavy rain fall tonight. Looks like a good 0.75 to an inch is possible for areas that see the heavy rainfall and as advertised by the euro and and a few other models isolated higher amounts are possible. Then we got tomorrow afternoon where a front comes through with a good flow of moisture ahead of it wild card will be how much heating we see and how much shear we can get as of now It looks safe to say south of the turnpike has the best chance of isolated strong to severe storms. Or as posted in the other thread some sort of a line which the 12km Nam hints. IMO still a wild card right now and a lot will depend on how fast morning convection can exit for us to get a nice period of heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Slight risk in place just to our south and now they have added some of our area in the 2% range for tornadoes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 So I gather from the MA thread that once this current slug of heavy rain moves through that we need to hope for some clearing and heating to juice everything up for possibly more storms later? Would be nice to see an actual thunderstorm this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 So I gather from the MA thread that once this current slug of heavy rain moves through that we need to hope for some clearing and heating to juice everything up for possibly more storms later? Would be nice to see an actual thunderstorm this spring. their is already some nice clearing down there. Not sure how far north it gets, though southern areas have the best shot at storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Currently the rain is exiting south to north quickly but it will take time for clearing to occur these type days always come down to the last minute. Moisture will be in place wild card will be how fast we can get instability to pop I defiantly agree the more south you are the better the chance for severe wx today. Pure wildcard afternoon ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 If the RAP maps on the mesoscale analysis site are right south and west of the area Instability will sky rocket to 3000 down in Virginia and 2000+ to the west with 100-1500 east to west here 100 in eastern NJ 1000 for Philly and 1500 for the western portions of our area. Not going to say this is right or wrong as this does tend to be a tad overdone at times but is something interesting to watch additionally some weak shear does develop. Just something to watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Let's get that sun out & shining, though I'm not terribly optimistic about storm chances this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 doesnt look good here in north de, the fact that its a little past one and the sun still has yet to come out does not help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Partial clearing in the skies here in Delco. Warm sector nosing in with the best clearing. No guarentees as to what happens later..i'm not too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sun trying to come out here now. 72/65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Nice surprise setting up in the dynamics department right now LFC HEIGHTS are rather low with 600 near by. Very nice tropospheric flow in place out of the south southwest. additionally EHI values have increased to 1. cape has also reaches 1000-1500 in the city which is enough to get the job done. Finally a line is now starting to develop back to the west and with the better then expected environment setting into place I think it is now possible anyone could see isolated severe and even very slight chance of a isolated brief tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Where da storms be?! Booo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Where da storms be?! Booo In the Carolinas. Did you want something a little closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 good rumbles to my west but it looks to be breakin up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Where da storms be?! Booo over brookhaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Multiple cells now developing along an outflow boundary that has now set up 1 problem with this is that it is moving slow so anyone who gets cells from theses could see a fair share of additional rain fall in the rain gauge. It appears storms will develop and spread eastward until the boundary layer and energy becomes stable. Wild card will be if they make it to the I95 corridor It is evident by a check of the K index that conditions still support scatted convection with decent moisture still present. Always nice to see a night time treat in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Incoming into my backyard! Big rumbles of thunder approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Lots of lightning to the west & now more to the southwest. Liking this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 949 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 PAZ060-061-067>069-160315- BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CHESTER PA-LEHIGH PA-MONTGOMERY PA- 949 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...BUCKS...CHESTER...LEHIGH AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES... AT 945 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN BERKS AND CHESTER COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. LAT...LON 4072 7563 4026 7496 3978 7606 3983 7604 3983 7602 3985 7603 3988 7600 3992 7600 3998 7599 4003 7594 4011 7595 4014 7589 4029 7610 $$ NIERENBERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Not liking the trends here everything to far west and north. Hopefully they can move east and form more south so they can roll over here, hoping i dont have to get out and water my vegetable garden and letting nature help me out on it with more additional rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I wonder if they're going to move east enough to get into Collegeville. Looks like they're perhaps moving too NNE to make it here. Need a little more easterly motion. All sorts of lightning to the southwest now, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Lots of lightning to the west here. It's going to be hard to sleep with the humidity. I can't wait for the FROPA tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 PAC029-160545- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.120516T0245Z-120516T0545Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHESTER PA- 1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 145 AM EDT * AT 1044 PM EDT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CHESTER COUNTY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE ADVISORY AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS COULD CAUSE LOW LYING AREAS TO BECOME FLOODED, INCLUDING SOME ROADWAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Wow, very impressive thunder/lightning. Heavy rain has just moved in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Wow, just had a cloud/ground strike within a mile of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Wow, just had a cloud/ground strike within a mile of the house. Picture or it didn't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Picture or it didn't happen! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Getting a good light show to the North and West. Parsley looks to be getting it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 lol. ;-) Was hoping to try out my new camera at work tonight. The storms are just a bit to far N&W to get a good sight line. All I'm capturing are flashes..no strikes. Oo well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Wow, just had a cloud/ground strike within a mile of the house. Stop bragging already, lol. It actually turned into a nice little complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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