Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Dear Lord did it get humid out there. Soaked with sweat after finally finishing the lawn..Dew is 66-67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 There might be a higher severe potential in the morning as opposed to the afternoon. Shear is better then, 30-35 kt out of the NW. Probably not in these parts. Morning severe is rare here... and anything more than a pulser is very rare! I think the way this entire system is evolving just sort of sucks. The best energy holds back too long to the west and we're left with instability and little dynamics to work with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The set up looks favorable for a nice nocturnal ridge roller to give us a nice over light light show at some point. I think it will be tough to get organized severe Monday PM though. Not for nothing, but good news for me; being oncall for the weekend keeping up telecommunications, I would welcome 3 more days like today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah shear sucks, but maybe good CAPE can offset some. Besides, depends where the front sets up. Wait - how are we determining that? It seems to me, regardless of what any graphical or bufkit products are saying, we have to remember ... those would be based on modeled input data, that in its self could be wrong. I bring that up because I'm looking at the surface pressure layout and it looks like SW flow in the CT R V region turns SE by the time we get to Manchester, NH on the regional whole. That's probably a diffused warm boundary of sorts and I bet if that results we have a narrow band of SRH extending WNW -ESE perhaps along Rt poop or up into SNH. Gotta think more along the lines of correcting that way than what these products may or may not outright be illustrating at this time. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wait - how are we determining that? It seems to me, regardless of what any graphical or bufkit products are saying, we have to remember ... those would be based on modeled input data, that in its self could be wrong. I bring that up because I'm looking at the surface pressure layout and it looks like SW flow in the CT R V region turns SE by the time we get to Manchester, NH on the regional whole. That's probably a diffused warm boundary of sorts and I bet if that results we have a narrow band of SRH extending WNW -ESE perhaps along Rt poop or up into SNH. Gotta think more along the lines of correcting that way than what these products may or may not outright be illustrating at this time. We'll see... yeah there is vertical vorticity associated with the warm front axis. Also, there is 0-3km helicity of greater than 200m2/s2 being forecasting for CNE on Monday on the SPC SREF. There's probably a low-level jet below the 850mb level that is inducing that. Deep layer shear sucks imo...but low-level shear could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Why does the NAM have been so much shear on Monday? It's got 55 kt at 340 degrees near 550mb at ORH. Is that convectively induced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It just occurred to me... Do you recall those two back to back "cool pool aloft" summers of 07? and 08? They started out as generalized trough in the OV, that eventually evolved into semi-permanent steepish mid level lapse rates for much of the NE. Once the heat wave of June, 07 evolved out it was replaced with 45 days of thunderstorms like ...every afternoon. There was a severe warn somewhere in SNE it seemed every day in July. I wonder if we could be heading for something similar. I remember that well. WE had just moved into the Pit. It still had all the original windows which 1) were nearly impossible to open and 2) when they were opened needed to be propped up with a ruler or some such thing to keep them so. Until you actually wanted to close them in which case you had to fight them closed. Each storm had us running to close them, and then struggle to reopen once they had passed. Man, were we happy when we had them (all 32 of them) replaced. Back to mowing--temp inching up. Now 64.3/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 73/64, pretty warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 73/64, pretty warm out there. Is the sun out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Is the sun out there? Down here in the furnace we're 75/68 and not a peak of sun all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Why does the NAM have been so much shear on Monday? It's got 55 kt at 340 degrees near 550mb at ORH. Is that convectively induced? That's right about where the warm front will be and it appears that the stronger shear is just on the other side of the front/right along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 That's right about where the warm front will be and it appears that the stronger shear is just on the other side of the front/right along it. watch us get a right propagator with golf ball hail that runs from RUT to BED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Is the sun out there? Every now and then, comes out, then clouds up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 watch us get a right propagator with golf ball hail that runs from RUT to BED That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 are these hints and frets and start-up TCs in the Bahamas book-enders? I know that the various tropical modeling flagged this period aloft... I don't recall a surface boundary getting in there. Eh, must be - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 As far as Monday goes we really won't know until Sunday morning or late afternoon...maybe not even until Monday AM...first have to see where the warm front does setup and then go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Down here in the furnace we're 75/68 and not a peak of sun all day Yikes---might be glad the sun didn't come out wtih those temps! At the high of 66.6/64 at the moment. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Looks like a decent Sunday and Monday esp South and west of pike FTW..with Pm storms and a sun/cloud mix..Even BTV gets storms later Sunday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Where da heat?? Goose Bay, Labrador 91.4F (33C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Looks like a decent Sunday and Monday esp South and west of pike FTW..with Pm storms and a sun/cloud mix..Even BTV gets storms later Sunday nite Where does "west of the pike" begin? Patches of blue developing. Took all day, but I might see the sun after all. 67.9/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Where da heat?? Goose Bay, Labrador 91.4F (33C). That 992mb low over central Quebec is pumping up a strong ridge over Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, snow may fall along the south shore of Hudson Bay/James Bay: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 That 992mb low over central Quebec is pumping up a strong ridge over Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, snow may fall along the south shore of Hudson Bay/James Bay: Yup. All-time record high for them for the month of May. The Polar Bears up there must think they're in a beer commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Sunday looked a little better. Gotta get the front souj for drier air to advect in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 As expected a stellar and simply sensational holiday weekend upcoming, somehow finished all properties, heavy heavy libating about to commence. Lots of hurty hurtz:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 As expected a stellar and simply sensational holiday weekend upcoming, somehow finished all properties, heavy heavy libating about to commence. Lots of hurty hurtz:( You mean tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 You mean tomorrow No, I mean weekend. have fun at the concert, skies have cleared here, its a stellar evening, now go get your drink on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Turning into a really nice evening. Winds picked up and backed to the west (nor sure why). Still at 68/65, but feels great with the breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 No, I mean weekend. have fun at the concert, skies have cleared here, its a stellar evening, now go get your drink on. Yeah sun out here too. Good luck Sunday an Monday. Hopefully one day works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Turning into a really nice evening. Winds picked up and backed to the west (nor sure why). Still at 68/65, but feels great with the breeze. Because that is the torch direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 67/65, a mostly cloudy day with occasional showers and a high of 68. No sign of the Blizz scorch and torch. Pretty much day after day of cloudy cool and wet weather. Hope this continues until October when it turns to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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