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SNE End of May, into Summer Thread


free_man

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There might be a higher severe potential in the morning as opposed to the afternoon. Shear is better then, 30-35 kt out of the NW.

Probably not in these parts. Morning severe is rare here... and anything more than a pulser is very rare!

I think the way this entire system is evolving just sort of sucks. The best energy holds back too long to the west and we're left with instability and little dynamics to work with it.

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The set up looks favorable for a nice nocturnal ridge roller to give us a nice over light light show at some point. I think it will be tough to get organized severe Monday PM though.

Not for nothing, but good news for me; being oncall for the weekend keeping up telecommunications, I would welcome 3 more days like today!

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Yeah shear sucks, but maybe good CAPE can offset some. Besides, depends where the front sets up.

Wait - how are we determining that?

It seems to me, regardless of what any graphical or bufkit products are saying, we have to remember ... those would be based on modeled input data, that in its self could be wrong.

I bring that up because I'm looking at the surface pressure layout and it looks like SW flow in the CT R V region turns SE by the time we get to Manchester, NH on the regional whole. That's probably a diffused warm boundary of sorts and I bet if that results we have a narrow band of SRH extending WNW -ESE perhaps along Rt poop or up into SNH.

Gotta think more along the lines of correcting that way than what these products may or may not outright be illustrating at this time.

We'll see...

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Wait - how are we determining that?

It seems to me, regardless of what any graphical or bufkit products are saying, we have to remember ... those would be based on modeled input data, that in its self could be wrong.

I bring that up because I'm looking at the surface pressure layout and it looks like SW flow in the CT R V region turns SE by the time we get to Manchester, NH on the regional whole. That's probably a diffused warm boundary of sorts and I bet if that results we have a narrow band of SRH extending WNW -ESE perhaps along Rt poop or up into SNH.

Gotta think more along the lines of correcting that way than what these products may or may not outright be illustrating at this time.

We'll see...

yeah there is vertical vorticity associated with the warm front axis. Also, there is 0-3km helicity of greater than 200m2/s2 being forecasting for CNE on Monday on the SPC SREF. There's probably a low-level jet below the 850mb level that is inducing that. Deep layer shear sucks imo...but low-level shear could be decent.

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It just occurred to me... Do you recall those two back to back "cool pool aloft" summers of 07? and 08? They started out as generalized trough in the OV, that eventually evolved into semi-permanent steepish mid level lapse rates for much of the NE. Once the heat wave of June, 07 evolved out it was replaced with 45 days of thunderstorms like ...every afternoon. There was a severe warn somewhere in SNE it seemed every day in July.

I wonder if we could be heading for something similar.

I remember that well. WE had just moved into the Pit. It still had all the original windows which 1) were nearly impossible to open and 2) when they were opened needed to be propped up with a ruler or some such thing to keep them so. Until you actually wanted to close them in which case you had to fight them closed.

Each storm had us running to close them, and then struggle to reopen once they had passed. Man, were we happy when we had them (all 32 of them) replaced.

Back to mowing--temp inching up. Now 64.3/63

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That 992mb low over central Quebec is pumping up a strong ridge over Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, snow may fall along the south shore of Hudson Bay/James Bay:

post-475-0-54083500-1337982392_thumb.gif

Yup. All-time record high for them for the month of May. The Polar Bears up there must think they're in a beer commercial.

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