CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 they were like 35-40 kt. Usually you need a decent balance of environmental shear and instability. 1995 seemed to have a boatload of instability but modest/moderate shear. How did it move at 80mph across Lake Ontario and not become outflow dominant? I think as the outflow become stronger, it pushed those tstms right along. It was so unstable along its path so it wasn't a case where they outrun the best instability and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NAM has a 40 kt low-level jet out of the WSW at 925mb on Sunday night in BUF....and helicity of greater than 200 m2/s2. Winds weaken and veer NW to 25-30 kt in the 700 to 500mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 simply sensational if it's right it will be! We've had 5 straight days of overcast here. Maybe 45 minutes of sun for the week...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 what is that, 850-500rh and lifted index? Yeah, I like that tool. Also good for location areas of CSI in the winter. Usually the LI gradient is strong near the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I think as the outflow become stronger, it pushed those tstms right along. It was so unstable along its path so it wasn't a case where they outrun the best instability and weaken. yeah could be. I've also wondered if it became coupled to the upper level jet streak over Quebec that was flying east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 if it's right it will be! We've had 5 straight days of overcast here. Maybe 45 minutes of sun for the week...unreal. Thank you for saying that. I tried telling Joe how onshore flow sucks this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 LOL at the GFS. Wait until you see hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 yeah could be. I've also wondered if it became coupled to the upper level jet streak over Quebec that was flying east. I always thought that TSTMS moving parallel to the mid level flow really allow the complex to take off. That's one thing that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 LOL at the GFS. Wait until you see hr 168. LOL. euro kind of did the same thing but was further offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I always thought that TSTMS moving parallel to the mid level flow really allow the complex to take off. That's one thing that happened. yeah i was reading the paper that HM was talking about. I guess one of the better approximation is they move parallel to the 1000-500mb thickness contours. Also they propagate south of the mean flow since new cell development is favored over the southern part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NAM has a 40 kt low-level jet out of the WSW at 925mb on Sunday night in BUF....and helicity of greater than 200 m2/s2. Winds weaken and veer NW to 25-30 kt in the 700 to 500mb layer. That sounds like a prelude to an MCS genesis; I'd like to have that up into southern Ontario over to the Champlain Valley axis. Storms getting rolling at BUF tend to end up in Philly do to typical right propagation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 That sounds like a prelude to an MCS genesis; I'd like to have that up into southern Ontario over to the Champlain Valley axis. Storms getting rolling at BUF tend to end up in Philly do to typical right propagation. Tough to say...but it could be farther north over Lake Ontario. Or not develop at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 if it's right it will be! We've had 5 straight days of overcast here. Maybe 45 minutes of sun for the week...unreal. Yea gloom and doom FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 yeah i was reading the paper that HM was talking about. I guess one of the better approximation is they move parallel to the 1000-500mb thickness contours. Also they propagate south of the mean flow since new cell development is favored over the southern part of the system. Yeah exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 LOL at the GFS. Wait until you see hr 168. It just occurred to me... Do you recall those two back to back "cool pool aloft" summers of 07? and 08? They started out as generalized trough in the OV, that eventually evolved into semi-permanent steepish mid level lapse rates for much of the NE. Once the heat wave of June, 07 evolved out it was replaced with 45 days of thunderstorms like ...every afternoon. There was a severe warn somewhere in SNE it seemed every day in July. I wonder if we could be heading for something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Tough to say...but it could be farther north over Lake Ontario. Or not develop at all lol. The last decent MCS I recall was in the late 1990's...'99 I think. In July, I was working at WSC at the time. Shift started at 4pm and I remember seeing a small cluster of storms coming out of radar black out in NW of NYS in Ontario. 6 hours later the line had turned S in eastern VT/NH and come down across eastern zones back this way. Hail...frequent lightning. Those are fun because they don't necessarily mean a whole scale air mass change. There may have been stuff since but for some dopey reason I can't currently remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It just occurred to me... Do you recall those two back to back "cool pool aloft" summers of 07? and 08? They started out as generalized trough in the OV, that eventually evolved into semi-permanent steepish mid level lapse rates for much of the NE. Once the heat wave of June, 07 evolved out it was replaced with 45 days of thunderstorms like ...every afternoon. There was a severe warn somewhere in SNE it seemed every day in July. I wonder if we could be heading for something similar. Yeah summer of '08. That was a -NAO summer. It's possible that could happen should the -NAO decide to occur more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah summer of '08. That was a -NAO summer. It's possible that could happen should the -NAO decide to occur more frequently. You know how I like monitoring the engineering of a good heat wave, but that 08 summer was one of the more entertaining. I saw 3 funnel clouds, and had 2 nickle hail experiences that summer. It seems every day was a bonanza of magnificent TCU ogling chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Muah hahahahaaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 You know how I like monitoring the engineering of a good heat wave, but that 08 summer was one of the more entertaining. I saw 3 funnel clouds, and had 2 nickle hail experiences that summer. It seems every day was a bonanza of magnificent TCU ogling chance. Yeah it was nuts. I remember Londonderry NH reported 3......3 SVR hail rpts in one day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Would have been nice 4 months ago... Muah hahahahaaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Monday's severe potential is pretty lackluster IMO. Little shear even with big CAPE probably keeps thunderstorm activity marginal in terms of big hail or organized wind damage. GFS has 500mb winds less than 30 knots during the afternoon across SNE and adjacent NY. There is a big spatial gap between best instability and best shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Monday's severe potential is pretty lackluster IMO. Little shear even with big CAPE probably keeps thunderstorm activity marginal in terms of big hail or organized wind damage. GFS has 500mb winds less than 30 knots during the afternoon across SNE and adjacent NY. There is a big spatial gap between best instability and best shear. Yeah shear sucks, but maybe good CAPE can offset some. Besides, depends where the front sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah shear sucks, but maybe good CAPE can offset some. Besides, depends where the front sets up. The set up looks favorable for a nice nocturnal ridge roller to give us a nice overnight light show at some point. I think it will be tough to get organized severe Monday PM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The set up looks favorable for a nice nocturnal ridge roller to give us a nice overnight light show at some point. I think it will be tough to get organized severe Monday PM though. I usually like the little shear around here. Strong speed shear usually means strong S-SW winds too which can still bring in marine taint to BOS this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I usually like the little shear around here. Strong speed shear usually means strong S-SW winds too which can still bring in marine taint to BOS this time of year. Yeah but with so little shear it's going to be next to impossible to get good hail or storms to organize much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah but with so little shear it's going to be next to impossible to get good hail or storms to organize much. It's a win to even get tstms this time of year...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah but with so little shear it's going to be next to impossible to get good hail or storms to organize much. There might be a higher severe potential in the morning as opposed to the afternoon. Shear is better then, 30-35 kt out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It's a win to even get tstms this time of year...lol. That's the truth.... especially from Mt. Tolland and points east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Convection thread!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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