CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Heavy, heavy BD front on Memorial Day afternoon. 90s in ALB 50s in BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 that NAO block is something special...where the **** was that all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Depending on the front placement for Saturday we could fire some severe storms over coastal areas? NAM is a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I have to replace my rain guage because it got smashed 2 weeks ago but we've gotten a ton of rain. I've been in Greenfield 5 years now and I'm starting to realize that this part of Franklin Co. is the summer equivalent of Pete's winter bonanzas. We will get downpors in this 10 mile radius (Greenfield, Montague, Leyden etc.) when no one else is getting rain. Obviously something to do with the topography and the way the Valley narrows up here surrounded by hills. I have noticed that too. Also there's something about the stretch from East Deerfield across the river into Turners Falls... Storms, whatever their overall intensity level, have this tendency to really cycle up and max out.. Linear storms often develop embedded spinups and some of the biggest local hail reports come out of there. Would not surprise me at all if they got a tornado some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 majority of srefs have a pretty nice looking MCS diving across NE sunday night. kind of approaching the end of the run so to be taken with a grain of salt but something to watch. they also do what the NAM is doing and drive the BDCF through new england sunday night, leaving monday as a pretty cool day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 majority of srefs have a pretty nice looking MCS diving across NE sunday night. kind of approaching the end of the run so to be taken with a grain of salt but something to watch. they also do what the NAM is doing and drive the BDCF through new england sunday night, leaving monday as a pretty cool day. Further than the ORH hills? 60.7/60, dreariness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Nick,,,I didn't necessarily mean 48 hrs of rain, but it didn't look all that nice Sunday and Monday. But, it is possible one of those days may be ok for some. I'd rather the front get pushed into NJ and a nice push of dry air come down from Maine. I'll be up north anyways, but still....a BKN deck of mid level crud sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wow is the NAM super unstable Sunday Night...especially western NY. That plume feeding the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wow is the NAM super unstable Sunday Night...especially western NY. That plume feeding the MCS. yeah i was just looking at that. srefs are too. big pwat surge too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Further than the ORH hills? 60.7/60, dreariness continues. looked like a decent chunk of the region. looks like a wind shift to the NNE saturday night, then the boundary kind of lifts back sunday then falls back south again sunday night behind whatever feature rolls overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Nick,,,I didn't necessarily mean 48 hrs of rain, but it didn't look all that nice Sunday and Monday. But, it is possible one of those days may be ok for some. I'd rather the front get pushed into NJ and a nice push of dry air come down from Maine. I'll be up north anyways, but still....a BKN deck of mid level crud sucks. oh i know what you meant...and since it's the Holiday weekend I'd imagine many of you have outdoor plans. I like storms...so I wouldn't mind a stalled frontal boundary with thunderstorms. Should be some nice lift from the jet on Sunday night. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120525/12/gfs_namer_060_250_wnd_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I guess the hope for Sunday is to get any rain later in the day, The GFS does have drier air in the lower levels which possibly would prevent low level crud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I was afraid of this the other day and now you can see it clearly on sat... we're in a tuck pattern here. that's when we tuck in murk, and then topography combined with nuances in the wind directions work against normal diurnal processes that would otherwise mix this garbage out. Basically, having HP due E of NE is as bad as having to due N. Notice it clear in N NE, where there is more return flow oriented gradient? The NAM is still flagging a NW trajectory kicking in tomorrow and that would help. Currently a strong boundary is plowing east out of the GL; it's going to be interesting/fun/satisfying to watch that plow into this stuff and eradicate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 oh i know what you meant...and since it's the Holiday weekend I'd imagine many of you have outdoor plans. I like storms...so I wouldn't mind a stalled frontal boundary with thunderstorms. Should be some nice lift from the jet on Sunday night. http://mag.ncep.noaa..._250_wnd_ht.gif Yeah if the front is nearby...lets get some action..agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Basically, not en easy forecast. If the front stalls near SNE...north of the WF may not be pretty with high TD air over east winds. GFS looked like Sunday might be ok, but the euro looked pretty lousy. You're also at the mercy for MCS activity helping to dictate front position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 i wonder if joe's at the beach right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah if the front is nearby...lets get some action..agreed. Sunday and Monday looks to be the best chance for severe weather that slow moving shortwave on Tuesday/Wednesday looks crappy. I'd like to see a stronger low-level jet being modeled...it's pretty weak, but maybe that will strengthen as we get closer. On another note, does anyone have any theories on why the 95 derecho moves so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 12z NAM throws LIs of +9 across the area post - dry eventless fropa on Saturday ...heading into Sunday. That's a dry air intrusion from the WNW tomorrow.. Tomorrow would be a warm day by virtue of delayed CAA... but then it's 24C in the 2 metere with DPs of 45 on Sunday, with mid-level overrunning getting going. If it rains...at all... that will pin the boundary SW of SNE and ruin the weather until whole scale changes sweet through next week. stable, cool, boring puke. It's just one of the possibilities with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Sunday and Monday looks to be the best chance for severe weather that slow moving shortwave on Tuesday/Wednesday looks crappy. I'd like to see a stronger low-level jet being modeled...it's pretty weak, but maybe that will strengthen as we get closer. On another note, does anyone have any theories on why the 95 derecho moves so fast? Cold pool acceleration I would think. Weren't 500mb winds like 50kts as well? That's usually more than plenty. I thought Tuesday/Wednesday could be interesting if convection doesn't modify lapse rates. Usually we do ok when s/w's dip down from the Great Lakes. But, you know how it goes around here...have to wait until we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 12z NAM throws LIs of +9 across the area post - dry eventless fropa on Saturday ...heading into Sunday. Look at this pants tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Cold pool acceleration I would think. Weren't 500mb winds like 50kts as well? That's usually more than plenty. I thought Tuesday/Wednesday could be interesting if convection doesn't modify lapse rates. Usually we do ok when s/w's dip down from the Great Lakes. But, you know how it goes around here...have to wait until we get closer. they were like 35-40 kt. Usually you need a decent balance of environmental shear and instability. 1995 seemed to have a boatload of instability but modest/moderate shear. How did it move at 80mph across Lake Ontario and not become outflow dominant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Look at this pants tent. nocturnal pants tent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Look at this pants tent. what is that, 850-500rh and lifted index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 i wonder if joe's at the beach right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Nam has 80's from I-91 west on Monday...90 or better by NYC. I'll take that please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 He's been watching too much Deadliest Catch. He thinks a good beach day is seas of less than 20 ft and winds of less than 35 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Look at this pants tent. Yeah, I was just looking at the boundary being just N of the area... Oooph!! Big turn around sunday --> Monday comparativelly... That's really dangerous man. That would mean theta-e pooling in SNE up under that boundary and should storms develop just S of it they would avail of rather large SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 i wonder if joe's at the beach right now. If the NAM is right, 2 of the 3 days are beach days in SW CT with 80 or better both days. Sunday looks like the only iffy day per the NAM down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 If the NAM is right, 2 of the 3 days are beach days in SW CT with 80 or better both days. Sunday looks like the only iffy day per the NAM down here. simply sensational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 brief tropical shower just went trhough 61/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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