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SNE End of May, into Summer Thread


free_man

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Your scenario would be horrible. At this stage..let the warm front stay south. Any further north would be low clouds and rain. As it is...it may happen for poor Joe.

Well I think the front would move north of Sne pretty quick so we would be warm sectored all l day Monday and Tues and maybe Sunday is the transition day where we storm as wf moves north
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Well I think the front would move north of Sne pretty quick so we would be warm sectored all l day Monday and Tues and maybe Sunday is the transition day where we storm as wf moves north

With that high to the north...I think Monday the front is south..or maybe into southwest SNE. However, it may straddle the pike or something...which could be good for tstms. I won't rule it out...but it's possible Monday may not be all that nice.

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The placement of the front is the big key-going to be some big forecast busts out there (going either way) depending on what happens...50 miles further north or south is a huge bust for a given locale when it comes to sensible weather.

timing any disturbances will also be huge. there's pretty good model agreement right now on a developing wave shooting out from the Lakes and riding the boundary and passing over or just south of SNE sometime sun/sun eve. get that through later sun night and you squeeze out an OK sun...if it comes in too early, the day could be shot.

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i don't know...looks like it hangs south of most of SNE for much of monday then starts to washout and return late monday into tuesday.

GFS Experimental MOS product ...no doubt based off the experimental run of the GFS, has one very warm day on Saturday then merely seasonably mild every day next week with no real heat around.

I gotta be honest it wouldn't shock me with the -NAO being so strong passing through next week. We tend not to send polar boundaries N of 40N in the E with NAOs deeper than 1 SD.

If you do, there'll be hell to pay severe as the column tries to crash with falling heights concurrent over any interval with S wind up underneath. But that's a different algorithm - ha.

Red herring heat wave. Of course, ...when this ridge interlude was first sniffed out there was nothing like the current -NAO progged - it really bullied its way in and forced the hand here.

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GFS Experimental MOS product ...no doubt based off the experimental run of the GFS, has one very warm day on Saturday then merely seasonably mild every day next week with no real heat around.

I gotta be honest it wouldn't shock me with the -NAO being so strong passing through next week. We tend not to send polar boundaries N of 40N in the E with NAOs deeper than 1 SD.

If you do, there'll be hell to pay severe as the column tries to crash with falling heights concurrent over any interval with S wind up underneath. But that's a different algorithm - ha.

Red herring heat wave. Of course, ...when this ridge interlude was first sniffed out there was nothing like the current -NAO progged - it really bullied its way in and forced the hand here.

yeah saturday looks pretty darn warm/hot for some regions. nothing too extreme but summer-ish for sure.

if things break right i could see how tue and/or wed turn out decently warm too - but we'd have to time the warm sector arrival / departure right. could be one of those things where it's murky / dirty skies and we never really hit the true potential or maybe we just bust out and maximize that warm tongue of air that ejects NE from the OV.

but yeah, overall, no big heat pushes for the time being.

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Sunday could be a disaster. Limited svr threat here in SNE but maybe a flood threat from training storms? Seems like we set up right along the front with pretty solid synoptic scale lift in the right entrance region of that jet streak.

Could be really ugly with a slow clear for Monday.

Severe threat Tuesday?

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Another dry day, times of sun and clouds. Sat looks incredible, sun too! Late day tstorm>? that would be awesome..........Monday looks great and Tuesday looks toasty. This weather is really awesome a wonderful mix of rain and sun, perfect for lawns and gardens, the last few weekends have been incredible, and ones for the ages.

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It was MPM and MRG trolling and trying to spin conditions. Any dewpoint over 60 is humid or muggy/anything over 68 -70+ is oppressive no matter what time of year.

A 67/64 is not cool..There's nothing cool about it..even grandmother's at a soccer match in the evening would have on shorts and a t shirt..

67/30 is different..The added moisture in the air from the high dews makes the feel to the skin much different than a low/dry airmass

You're incorrigable.

Worst torch ever. 67.9/64. Though, it was pretty warm when I was in Paxton this afternoon.

Looks like with the exception where I have "high near 80", the rest of the forecast is for 70's. At least we can add more rain to the seemingly, incessently wet May.

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Sunday could be a disaster. Limited svr threat here in SNE but maybe a flood threat from training storms? Seems like we set up right along the front with pretty solid synoptic scale lift in the right entrance region of that jet streak.

Could be really ugly with a slow clear for Monday.

Severe threat Tuesday?

LOL..you've been mentioning severe threats for days and then pushing them back each day to the next

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As you wake up with morning weenies..

how about this from BOX?

WILDCARD FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST WILL BE REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW MOVING

UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH/SWV IS OF LOW AMPLITUDE BUT

MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH

SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR TOWARD 12Z FRI. THIS MAY YIELD A SUNRISE

SURPRISE...FEATURING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM TOWARD 12Z FRI

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LOL..you've been mentioning severe threats for days and then pushing them back each day to the next

I have? Probably just as much as your 95-100 brutal, record heat for Saturday at BTV.

The pattern is active and favorable for severe. Looks like this weekend won't break our way.

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