moneypitmike Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 That's a bold statement...it probably will get warmer as we head through the end of May into June. I htink that trend will continue all the way into the second week of July. Then, we might see the highs begin to slowly tick downward. Some crazy pattern just screams to me that that is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Interesting reading Don S' thoughts that with no cold air in Canada, the pattern will be warmer than what otherwise might be expected with said pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 And missed by 8F at your winter station ORH which was a hot 62F. Not only are there lies going around, the temp talk is awful. Last summer wasn't like this. It becomes meaningless drivel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Interesting reading Don S' thoughts that with no cold air in Canada, the pattern will be warmer than what otherwise might be expected with said pattern There isn't supposed to be much cold in Canada except near the arctic circle though. I think if we had a huge area of dry soils, that certainly would help boost temps...but then dews fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 There isn't supposed to be much cold in Canada except near the arctic circle though. I think if we had a huge area of dry soils, that certainly would help boost temps...but then dews fall. I agree. Same deal with our own local soils now--had the dry pattern continued past 4/21 would have been interesting to see how warm we'd get with that factored in...the last month has erased that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I htink that trend will continue all the way into the second week of July. Then, we might see the highs begin to slowly tick downward. Some crazy pattern just screams to me that that is going to happen. Excellent forecast. I'll even go out on a limb and say that your slow tick downward will begin on July 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Not only are there lies going around, the temp talk is awful. Last summer wasn't like this. It becomes meaningless drivel. Just look at the dailies, only 1-2 days where the temp hit 80 in BOS ORH. Compare that to last May. Just because nighttime lows are higher from lots of clouds folks are touting how warm it has been. The days and days of 80s KFS forecasted last week beginning Friday turned into one day on Sun. Twisted and delusional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Not only are there lies going around, the temp talk is awful. Last summer wasn't like this. It becomes meaningless drivel. It's not awful. I enjoy talking temps. There's nothing else to talk about this time of year. If you don't enjoy it, then just don't discuss them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It's not awful. I enjoy talking temps. There's nothing else to talk about this time of year. If you don't enjoy it, then just don't discuss them It's awful when there is crap being spread around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It's not awful. I enjoy talking temps. There's nothing else to talk about this time of year. If you don't enjoy it, then just don't discuss them Don't forget 'dry begets dry'. That must be the cause of all the moss that's suddenly sprung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It's awful when there is crap being spread around. What crap? Provide specific examples please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Isn't the NAO correlation to cold temps in the northeast weak or even non-existent this time of year? Last summer had a persistent -NAO but it was very hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Isn't the NAO correlation to cold temps in the northeast weak or even non-existent this time of year? Last summer had a persistent -NAO but it was very hot. I think it's also related to the PNA too. -NAO usually allow for more troughing in the northeast, but last summer had a monster SE ridge that was strong enough to keep the heat on in the east. We also had a -PNA last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Isn't the NAO correlation to cold temps in the northeast weak or even non-existent this time of year? Last summer had a persistent -NAO but it was very hot. If I recall, as long as we have a strong SE ridge in place it pretty much negates any -NAO this time of year. WHat the -NAO will do is provide more frequent warm fronts/humidity and subsequent cool fronts..which in turn creates a more convectively active pattern..which is what we are entering into the next 2 weeks..biased above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I'll take the cool rainy summer for comfort reasons. But one negative is that my lawn is growing at the rate of 2 inches per day. It's nuts! It's tough when you cut about 3 acres. The nephew will hold me up for $40 to do it next time because I've had enough for a week. For the long weekend, it's too bad it's going to be somewhat unsettled. Nice to see the sun now though--give the grass the opportunity to use it's abundance of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Interning today in Danbury. Pretty dreary out there right now,but temps aren't bad...currently 70/67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It looks like we're getting more sunny breaks across northern CT and interior MA. Still have some marine influence going on closer to the I-95 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 If I recall, as long as we have a strong SE ridge in place it pretty much negates any -NAO this time of year. WHat the -NAO will do is provide more frequent warm fronts/humidity and subsequent cool fronts..which in turn creates a more convectively active pattern..which is what we are entering into the next 2 weeks..biased above normal Normal now is low to mid 70s. I think that higher dews will be a more noticeable component rather than high temperatures. With a consistent southerly flow it may be warm but I don't see it being so much above normal. Maybe upper 70s to lower 80s on average with higher dews on the days that aren't wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Should get pretty toasty for a couple days ...probably fall shy of a heat wave (officially) but there's been several things wrong with this west trough, east ridge handling over the last week's worth of model behavior. For one, there hasn't been a whole heck of a lot of agreement on where to place the actual axis of the ridging in the east. When this was first sniffed out, it was supposed to be ideal from the OV to the MA; since it has been slowly migrating SW in the global runs. 588dm never gets in here as of the runs yesterday and overnight... Meanwhile, the 06Z NAM of all models is now ballooning 588 region to include SNE. 00z Euro is just unacceptable when compared to 2 days ago. Not sure why everyone thinks this model is so great when its consistency sucks so bad. Then there has been the retrograde influence from -NAO; others have mentioned that the -NAO "signal" has been there for a while - yeah, I agree, but not entirely... While it has been there, timing the blocking has been piss poor, as well as its amplitude. In fact, the UKMET model hasn't ever really looked all that negative with the NAO domain, and still doesn't as of the 00z run. Lastly, the lower troposphere is out of phase with this ridge. There isn't any Bermudaesque type surface anticylonic motion to really conveyor heat in the more typical sense. So we wind up with a nice ridge evolution across 2 to 3 days, but we are stuck with a weak pp and south drift it seems. I think it all boils down to taking an interesting middle and extended range for heat type pattern, and then watching annoying permutations fumble around and f it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Should get pretty toasty for a couple days ...probably fall shy of a heat wave (officially) but there's been several things wrong with this west ridge, east trough handling over the last week's worth of model behavior. For one, there hasn't been a whole heck of a lot of agreement on where to place the actual axis of the ridging in the east. When this was first sniffed out, it was supposed to be ideal from the OV to the MA; since it has been slowly migrating SW in the global runs. 588dm never gets in here as of the runs yesterday and overnight... Meanwhile, the 06Z NAM of all models is now ballooning 588 region to include SNE. 00z Euro is just unacceptable when compared to 2 days ago. Not sure why everyone thinks this model is so great when its consistency sucks so bad. Then there has been the retrograde influence from -NAO; others have mentioned that the -NAO "signal" has been there for a while - yeah, I agree, but not entirely... While it has been there, timing the blocking has been piss poor, as well as its amplitude. In fact, the UKMET model hasn't ever really looked all that negative with the NAO domain, and still doesn't as of the 00z run. Lastly, the lower troposphere is out of phase with this ridge. There isn't any Bermudaesque type surface anticylonic motion to really conveyor heat in the more typical sense. So we wind up with a nice ridge evolution across 2 to 3 days, but we are stuck with a weak pp and south drift it seems. I think it all boils down to taking an interesting middle and extended range for heat type pattern, and then watching annoying permutations fumble around and f it all up. Yeah I see what you mean. Not a classic heat pump deal. I could see Tuesday being the warmest of the next several....go figure. Front possible stalls again later next week and first weekend of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 suns been out for the past hour.. warm humid feel out there It looks like we're getting more sunny breaks across northern CT and interior MA. Still have some marine influence going on closer to the I-95 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Yeah I see what you mean. Not a classic heat pump deal. I could see Tuesday being the warmest of the next several....go figure. Front possible stalls again later next week and first weekend of June. Funny look at the difference between the D6 UKMET, Euro and GFS from 00z. joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Funny look at the difference between the D6 UKMET, Euro and GFS from 00z. joke. And wow at the GFS. Boy did that bow to the euro. Front way south Monday. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 And wow at the GFS. Boy did that bow to the euro. Front way south Monday. AWT. HPC ftl (some might say). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 HPC ftl (some might say). Mike ..HPC wasn't talking about Monday..Please try and read up on things before making senseless posts. The front will be very close to SNE or over us next week. The Euro had it over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 What a flip in 12hrs on the euro op...almost the whole run has the boundary south of us. Next Tue goes from a scorcher to afternoon 40s in W MA...lol. The ens aren't as extreme, but they have a cooler look as well. HPC says it's a PHAIL..Torch is on!! FARTHER EWD... BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS LOWER SERN CANADA/NERN CONUS HGTS ALOFT THAN OTHER SOLNS OR ECMWF CONTINUITY... BRINGING THE MEAN SFC FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE EAST WELL SWD OF CONSENSUS. I haven't read the discussion, but the excerpt you posted does not indicate that "HPC says its a PHAIL". What it does say is its the outlier. Wrong? Perhaps. But, the excerpt you posted doesn't state what you say it says. Just saying. Just bustin', Kevin. Though from these posts, I thought the timeframe was the same and as such, I think my comment might be accurate. HPC didn't toss it the EC, they identified it as an outlier. GFS now says maybe not so much of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Euro had MPM and Mrg in the 40's next Tuesday , instead they"ll be in the 80's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Mike ..HPC wasn't talking about Monday..Please try and read up on things before making senseless posts. The front will be very close to SNE or over us next week. The Euro had it over DC I dunno Kev' ... This whole heat episode looked a lot better originally than has evolved over the last 3 or 4 days worth of model evolution ... teleconnector mode changes et al... Transient and/or interrupted warmth is probably the way to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 so what are we looking at for most folks Sat-Mon-high 70's low 80's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Great! Other than private channels, NCEP appears to have blown the dissemination to the general public... All the images at my typical sources are cracked frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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