Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Through yesterday orh was +2.4 bdl +2.0 I think both have a chance to finish around +5 with the warmer regime en route and humidity keeping overnight lows up. Great battle coming up over the next ten days, any sunny breaks tomorrow should yield temps around 80 inland with some seabreeze convection over the next two days. Beautiful last two days just beautiful, yuck. Glad we did not get gloom and doom. Fishing was great though, just a tad wet. Neg NAO has been progged for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 And BIrv, 2009 was sort of like today for 3 weeks or so I don't recall 2005 My wx memory is terrible, there was one May in recent memory that went above and beyond, drilling us with NE wind and rain for weeks with a backed-up pattern and self perpetuating ocean low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 upton has 80-82 for all 3 days this weekend for Southern CT and no mention of showers/storms at all. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 upton has 80-82 for all 3 days this weekend for Southern CT and no mention of showers/storms at all. I'll take that. Yes two unsettled days after 4 incredible days followed by another stretch of fair weather, sounds like spring to me. Sheet drizzle was very welcome, hopefully we can continue this pattern all summer, early week rain followed by heaven on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The -NAO signal has been pretty persistent. Pretty substantial high latitude blocking develops around day 6. This also includes an omega block structure developing in western/central North America that eventually merges into the Greenland block. The heat in the east is dependent on the s/w trough that approaches early next week. The Euro damps it out as it moves through the omega block while the GFS amplifies it downstream of the ridge. The trough then pumps up ridging into the Northeast, hammering up against the Atlantic low. Without that trough, we just have the -NAO Atlantic low suppressing any type of warmth. Either way, any warmth is transient. I wouldn't argue the transients of any heat... no. I think there is room, though, for error with the -NAO handling, as well as the amount of Rex Block in the W wrt to the D5-8 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yes two unsettled days after 4 incredible days followed by another stretch of fair weather, sounds like spring to me. Sheet drizzle was very welcome, hopefully we can continue this pattern all summer, early week rain followed by heaven on earth. We have incredibly lucked out this month. Every Sat/Sun combo has been awesome. For a wet month, that's hard to do. Assuming Fri-Mon is nice, we'll have gone a perfect 4 for 4 on weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Looks like a lovely day in New England... Ahhh nothing like low to mid 60s region wide at 3pm in the afternoon... except for the usual torch zone of the CT Valley, as well as the ESE low level flow downsloping off the Worcester/Union hills into areas like Tolland County and the tarmac of BDL. Warmer also in the BSE 2 zone of Fairfield County I don't think it's that bad honestly ... It's wet, that sucks - sure. But at least it's not 85 degrees. Even when it's dry heat, 85 sends my house like a bread box -jesus. i'd rather have it 64, pleasant. I croon on about heat waves though, purely from a meteorological point of interest. I'm kinda getting that way about snow storms, too. I think they are fascinating while they are going on, but the novelty runs out pretty quick for me within a couple days of dealing with removal, blocked visibility around corners, and grimy road spray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 one has to wonder-the NAO was forecast to go negative several times this past winter and never did or barely did...wonder if that trend continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 one has to wonder-the NAO was forecast to go negative several times this past winter and never did or barely did...wonder if that trend continues.... It has been negative or neutral since May 3 rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 We have incredibly lucked out this month. Every Sat/Sun combo has been awesome. For a wet month, that's hard to do. Assuming Fri-Mon is nice, we'll have gone a perfect 4 for 4 on weekends. The triple crown, as it were. Sun's peaking out here now, scorchy 64.8/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 It has been negative or neutral since May 3 rd. given that it's been neutral some of the time-wonder if it's neutral or barely negative the last 7 days of May and early June? Anyone got a graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 given that it's been neutral some of the time-wonder if it's neutral or barely negative the last 7 days of May and early June? Anyone got a graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 one has to wonder-the NAO was forecast to go negative several times this past winter and never did or barely did...wonder if that trend continues.... Not bad to consider trends but I think that trend, as far as it applied to winter, doesn't really apply now. That trend was broken by negative NAOs from the first halves of April and May respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 -nao this time of year does not equate to below normal, especially due to onshore flow and above normal night time lows, however over the next 7-10 days daytime highs will average well above normal, so no issue there. Hey, the sun just peeked out! Water>Sunny weekends= BSE2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I think a -NAO would increase the chances of severe weather in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 -nao this time of year does not equate to below normal, especially due to onshore flow and above normal night time lows, however over the next 7-10 days daytime highs will average well above normal, so no issue there. Hey, the sun just peeked out! Water>Sunny weekends= BSE2 Yeah neggy NAO now means humid with frequent warm/cold fropas and storms..It doesn't mean cold at all..Totally diff signal in summer..sorry long haireds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I think a -NAO would increase the chances of severe weather in the northeast. Absolutely. for many reasons. best forcing for ascent is guided over the northeast, mid-upper level flow stays out of the west or even WNW, while low level flow is backed with cold high pressure to the north. makes things pretty favorable for severe weather opportunities here. We'll see if it can produce! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Absolutely. for many reasons. best forcing for ascent is guided over the northeast, mid-upper level flow stays out of the west or even WNW, while low level flow is backed with cold high pressure to the north. makes things pretty favorable for severe weather opportunities here. We'll see if it can produce! MCS baby! ...not just the other kind. I think Scott was mentioning NW flow events recently as being potentially signaled in this. anyway, over the next 2 days, the NAM is dappling convective QPF up and down the eastern seaboard during the afternoons. For us it looks like the pattern flirting with a tuck pattern, which wouldn't be good. But hopefully the sun will fix that by boiling the trapped gook out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 MCS baby! ...not just the other kind. I think Scott was mentioning NW flow events recently as being potentially signaled in this. anyway, over the next 2 days, the NAM is dappling convective QPF up and down the eastern seaboard during the afternoons. For us it looks like the pattern flirting with a tuck pattern, which wouldn't be good. But hopefully the sun will fix that by boiling the trapped gook out of here. Tippy I think we see our first seabreeze convection of the year, plent of llm and old boundaries running around, should be fun over the interior, hoping with the southerly flow I clear out which is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 A whopping .18 here for this "soaking rainstorm" KFS with another W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 A whopping .18 here for this "soaking rainstorm" KFS with another W What? most of the area is above 0.25". Just bow down to me and make statues. Oh yeah...you can thank me for Sunday too. You are my B*tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 What? most of the area is above 0.25". Just bow down to me and make statues. Oh yeah...you can thank me for Sunday too. You are my B*tch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 SRN CT, ERN CT into adjacent MA. You got dryslotted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 What? most of the area is above 0.25". Just bow down to me and make statues. Oh yeah...you can thank me for Sunday too. You are my B*tch. You've without a doubt been drinking today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Tippy I think we see our first seabreeze convection of the year, plent of llm and old boundaries running around, should be fun over the interior, hoping with the southerly flow I clear out which is usually the case. I haven't seen the area soundings... but judging by the geopotential layout there are likely subtle cool pools of mid level temperatures moving through. There are some minor jetlets with these, too, that could help with ascent. Meanwhile we've just saturate the low levels. That would all be good at first glance should we get some diabatic assist. That's the rub though for SNE tomorrow... The RH2 level is over 80% for much of the area, which would likely signal some limitation on solar heating. It may not matter... it depends on the sounding. If temps aloft are cool, you don't have to heat an elevated DP air mass much to get CAPEs sufficiently large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 SRN CT, ERN CT into adjacent MA. You got dryslotted again. That's most of the area? It's less than 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Looks like -NAO FTW and no big prolonged heat in site. Could offer rain chances like today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 SRN CT, ERN CT into adjacent MA. You got dryslotted again. It'll parlay into the winter, too... We'll be getting our 3 and 4" events and Kevin's going to be posting about wins with his 1.8" of danglin' fury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I feel like the last 2 days have overperformed rain wise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 That's most of the area? It's less than 50% Dude, gimme a break. You got as much as BDL since your climate is BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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