Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Rather large bust potential on temperatures D5-8. Previously heavily signal trough west, ridge east couplet still in tact, but now as of the last 24 hours of runs there is -NAO to contend with. 00z Euro never gets bigger heat in here because of it, while GFS maintains insert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 raining steadily here north of boston....looks like from the pike/495 area north east is gettin some steady rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Who cares if it doesn't torch early next week...just give me 70+ and sun though...not today's 62/61 light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Kfs phail in GC. Soaking rains and temps remaining in the low 60s. The rain continues here. It's been almost non-stop showers here. 65F No complaints because I just seeded half my front yard yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Rather large bust potential on temperatures D5-8. Previously heavily signal trough west, ridge east couplet still in tact, but now as of the last 24 hours of runs there is -NAO to contend with. 00z Euro never gets bigger heat in here because of it, while GFS maintains insert. it seems to be all in the digging/handling of the upper low dropping down the west coast. The 00z euro was extremely amplified and closed off with it and this sent the subsequent cooler New England chain reaction you speak of. The euro ensembles while not nearly as deep with the feature as the op, were still nothing like the progressive 00z GFS...The euro ensembles still showed a push of decent heat into your neck of the woods for at least Tuesday of next week, and milder than the op for the end of the week. It's great how the 12z gfs, the first run of the recent upgrade, completely jumped towards the euro's deeper handling of the west coast features in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yeah, it's coming from both directions actually. Both the west coast, and NAO domains are showing bad continuity. The models are now dinking around with the NAO domain and sending the index down rather all the sudden over the last 24 hour’s worth of runs. It’s causing a couple of odd aspects about the middle range synoptic picture: One, it is allow polar surface high to wedge unusually far S under the rim of the building upper level heights – that could be an error; unsure though… The other thing is that the full amplitude of the ridge is now hindered because it is getting eroded now both from the west, and from heights trying to push down from the northeast (-NAO). None of that was really on the table with the runs as near as 36 hours ago when the pattern looked coherent with a western trough, eastern ridge scenario. With the models now bullying in a –NOA, that squeezes the wave lengths everywhere and we end up more with a convoluted mess. The CPC and CDC teleconnector means do show about -.75 SD value; not sure that is really enough to cause all that blocking. Big temperature bust potential D5-8. Could be 64 up the back-door if that –NAO’s impact on the flow is for real, or 94 if the boundary is stationary near-by. Remove this recent NAO consideration, we go right back to eastern heat real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 This wx pattern is atrocious. Drove through training rain showers down and up from the Mid Hudson Valley yesterday. Starting to feel muggy now with some hazy sun alternating with misty light showers. Met. Autumn can't come fast enough. Just get through June and the light is brighter at the end of the tunnel. It's been almost non-stop showers here. 65F No complaints because I just seeded half my front yard yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Interesting... looking over the surface analysis and comparing it to rad - this rain is almost Norlun like. There's a weak trough/convergence extending W from the low passing off-shore and this rain seems to be falling heavier than rad presentation. Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Interesting... looking over the surface analysis and comparing it to rad - this rain is almost Norlun like. There's a weak trough/convergence extending W from the low passing off-shore and this rain seems to be falling heavier than rad presentation. Hm Meso low that moved NNW over MVY and is now over Eastern Mass. Can clearly see it on radar and vis sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Rather large bust potential on temperatures D5-8. Previously heavily signal trough west, ridge east couplet still in tact, but now as of the last 24 hours of runs there is -NAO to contend with. 00z Euro never gets bigger heat in here because of it, while GFS maintains insert. The -NAO signal has been pretty persistent. Pretty substantial high latitude blocking develops around day 6. This also includes an omega block structure developing in western/central North America that eventually merges into the Greenland block. The heat in the east is dependent on the s/w trough that approaches early next week. The Euro damps it out as it moves through the omega block while the GFS amplifies it downstream of the ridge. The trough then pumps up ridging into the Northeast, hammering up against the Atlantic low. Without that trough, we just have the -NAO Atlantic low suppressing any type of warmth. Either way, any warmth is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 GC is New Hamspshire and VT..Not West Central Mass I think I started the GC nomenclature and it applied to those of us in the hilltowns of western mass. We've granted honorary status to those like Chris and Dave along with some of the zones in neighboring states. But, if the KFS was calling for 70, that's a swing and a miss out here. Peeks of lightening followed by drizzle followed by downpours followed by peaks of lightneing. Broken records--Mega Mega lawngrowth in these cool, wet conditions FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 In the drive home for my five weeks off.. baltimore to boston. Intermittent sprinkles until ct border. Off and on poured right till BDL. Passing tolland dryish here. Looks to get heavier near sturbridge again. Lot of accidents seen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I think I started the GC nomenclature and it applied to those of us in the hilltowns of western mass. We've granted honorary status to those like Chris and Dave along with some of the zones in neighboring states. But, if the KFS was calling for 70, that's a swing and a miss out here. Peeks of lightening followed by drizzle followed by downpours followed by peaks of lightneing. Broken records--Mega Mega lawngrowth in these cool, wet conditions FTW. Lol... I would not call Hubbardston GC...pretty flat landscape (although elevated) From my classroom, it seems like we have had a pretty good rain out here. But local wx stations seem to have the totals fairly low. Sheet drizzle? I will check my trusty manual rain gauge when I get home. The lawn has been really enjoying these last few weeks. No big pollen outbreaks either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 !2z euro certainly trended away from the cooler tuesday for northeastern areas. Still a boarderline situation for new england with plenty of runs to go, but over all much more similar evolution over the next 168 hrs when comparing the 12z euro/gfs to the 00z euro/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Lol... I would not call Hubbardston GC...pretty flat landscape (although elevated) From my classroom, it seems like we have had a pretty good rain out here. But local wx stations seem to have the totals fairly low. Sheet drizzle? I will check my trusty manual rain gauge when I get home. The lawn has been really enjoying these last few weeks. No big pollen outbreaks either. Perfect spring weather. If you're not going to have a good mud season, make up for it with a rainy May to help propel us for the end of the most God-awful season. Best grass eva! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Perfect spring weather. If you're not going to have a good mud season, make up for it with a rainy May to help propel us for the end of the most God-awful season. Best grass eva! I love it. The only downside for me is my son keeps missing baseball games... I wonder when the last May was where we had no big heat? ORH hit 80F twice this year. No big deal. Last year, the last 5 days of May were all 80+ there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 "God's Country" is not a new term and has nothing to do with landscape, other than an untouched, undeveloped rural area. Has nothing to do with mountains or snow like the weenies warped definition. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 !2z euro certainly trended away from the cooler tuesday for northeastern areas. Still a boarderline situation for new england with plenty of runs to go, but over all much more similar evolution over the next 168 hrs when comparing the 12z euro/gfs to the 00z euro/gfs Sounds like HPC was correct this morning when they tossed the 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 "God's Country" is not a new term and has nothing to do with landscape, other than an untouched, undeveloped rural area. Has nothing to do with mountains or snow like the weenies warped definition. Carry on. Indeed. Back in the mid-1990s I worked with a guy who was from Salem, MA, and he kiddingly called it Gods Country. Anyway, back to the May doldrums...May 2009 certainly finished cool and May 2008 only had 1 day where ORH hit 80F 2007 had 7 days of 80F or above at ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 !2z euro certainly trended away from the cooler tuesday for northeastern areas. Still a boarderline situation for new england with plenty of runs to go, but over all much more similar evolution over the next 168 hrs when comparing the 12z euro/gfs to the 00z euro/gfs When you say cooler...what would it be like if the cooler scenario worked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 Indeed. Back in the mid-1990s I worked with a guy who was from Salem, MA, and he kiddingly called it Gods Country. Anyway, back to the May doldrums...May 2009 certainly finished cool and May 2008 only had 1 day where ORH hit 80F 2007 had 7 days of 80F or above at ORH Which May was the three week disaster? '05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 According to my Davis Vantage Vue (automatic rain bucket on the roof)- I've collected 5.71 so far this month - including today's rain. That actually *may* be a little low since I believe I had some debris caught in there at some point for a couple of events. My recorded measurements from my yard rain gauge has me at about 5.90 so, I'm pretty confident in saying I'm very close to 6 inches for the month here in coastal SW RI. My Davis has .38" for the day so far and 3.34" for the month. Just perfect for the lawn and garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Sounds like HPC was correct this morning when they tossed the 00z Euro I thought 00z was always warmer than the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Looks like a lovely day in New England... Ahhh nothing like low to mid 60s region wide at 3pm in the afternoon... except for the usual torch zone of the CT Valley, as well as the ESE low level flow downsloping off the Worcester/Union hills into areas like Tolland County and the tarmac of BDL. Warmer also in the BSE 2 zone of Fairfield County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I love it. The only downside for me is my son keeps missing baseball games... I wonder when the last May was where we had no big heat? ORH hit 80F twice this year. No big deal. Last year, the last 5 days of May were all 80+ there. High for the month here at the Pit has been 78.9. "God's Country" is not a new term and has nothing to do with landscape, other than an untouched, undeveloped rural area. Has nothing to do with mountains or snow like the weenies warped definition. Carry on. You, sir, are correct. ButI brought it to the thread to designate the area that's so alien to the majority of people (and the majority of reported conditions) on the thread. The name has stuck, but the definitoin has wavered from it's origins. Sounds like HPC was correct this morning when they tossed the 00z Euro Sounds like the Euro may has moved closer to the other models than when HPC pointed it as an outlier this morning. !2z euro certainly trended away from the cooler tuesday for northeastern areas. Still a boarderline situation for new england with plenty of runs to go, but over all much more similar evolution over the next 168 hrs when comparing the 12z euro/gfs to the 00z euro/gfs This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Any question re: -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 After an all day sheet drizzle fest, skies are brightening. Hard to believe this marks the 15th month in a row of above normal temps at BDR, and 13 to 14 out of 15 for the 4 majors in sne, what a stretch, the benchmark for long lasting warmth will never be the same. All 4 majors are a lock for another above normal month in May, lets see what the next few months bring and hope that 2001 stops showing up in analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 And BIrv, 2009 was sort of like today for 3 weeks or so I don't recall 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Will be interesting to see how this pans out. Through yesterday orh was +2.4 bdl +2.0 I think both have a chance to finish around +5 with the warmer regime en route and humidity keeping overnight lows up. Great battle coming up over the next ten days, any sunny breaks tomorrow should yield temps around 80 inland with some seabreeze convection over the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Any question re: -NAO? Both those setups are good for getting hot wx in here with periodic cold fronts anf severe wx. thankfully everything is far enough north to keep cold way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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