cyclogent Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Hi there - long time lurker (here and over at Eastern), 1st time poster. A quick question about winter analogs... I'm going over some precip/temp data and ENSO SST's, etc to filter down to 5 or so analogs for the upcoming winter. There is one analog in particular that I need to make some adjustments to. Winter of 1986-87. I know that one was epic for much of the Mid Atlantic. So, hypothetically, if we had a similar pattern as 86-87 but with a much weaker Nino signal and weaker blocking in the North Atlantic, roughly what would that translate to? My guess would be sloppier storm events (more sleet and ZR), tighter snow gradients from coast to mountains, and storm tracks slightly west, but trying to quantify into a % adjustment in the snowfall department. Any good tools or info to help do that? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 It's May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Hi there - long time lurker (here and over at Eastern), 1st time poster. A quick question about winter analogs... I'm going over some precip/temp data and ENSO SST's, etc to filter down to 5 or so analogs for the upcoming winter. There is one analog in particular that I need to make some adjustments to. Winter of 1986-87. I know that one was epic for much of the Mid Atlantic. So, hypothetically, if we had a similar pattern as 86-87 but with a much weaker Nino signal and weaker blocking in the North Atlantic, roughly what would that translate to? My guess would be sloppier storm events (more sleet and ZR), tighter snow gradients from coast to mountains, and storm tracks slightly west, but trying to quantify into a % adjustment in the snowfall department. Any good tools or info to help do that? Thanks! I would hesitate to use warm phase analogs at all. 1986-7 is about as "warm phase" as one can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 2002-03 will be showing up everywhere if we go into an El nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogent Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Some thoughts and maps on early summer 2012 patterns. The purpose of these is to test analogs for the upcoming winter season. If the early summer patterns pan out, then on to the maps for winter, but if early summer doesn't produce what is shown here, then I'll be punting on a winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Hi there - long time lurker (here and over at Eastern), 1st time poster. A quick question about winter analogs... I'm going over some precip/temp data and ENSO SST's, etc to filter down to 5 or so analogs for the upcoming winter. There is one analog in particular that I need to make some adjustments to. Winter of 1986-87. I know that one was epic for much of the Mid Atlantic. So, hypothetically, if we had a similar pattern as 86-87 but with a much weaker Nino signal and weaker blocking in the North Atlantic, roughly what would that translate to? My guess would be sloppier storm events (more sleet and ZR), tighter snow gradients from coast to mountains, and storm tracks slightly west, but trying to quantify into a % adjustment in the snowfall department. Any good tools or info to help do that? Thanks! Well, weaker blocking would indeed translate to more coastal huggers and accompanying precip type issues, but the weaker ENSO state would imply a weaker subtropical jet, thus greater emphasis would be placed on the N stream. Systems born of the N stream are Miller B in nature and tend to mainly affect areas from about 40* in latitude points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Well, weaker blocking would indeed translate to more coastal huggers and accompanying precip type issues, but the weaker ENSO state would imply a weaker subtropical jet, thus greater emphasis would be placed on the N stream. Systems born of the N stream are Miller B in nature and tend to mainly affect areas from about 40* in latitude points north Wouldn't the fact that we are now in "cold phase" weaken the value of 1986-7 (the heart of the warm phase) as an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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