ksstormhunter Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Hello All, Have not been on here for a couple of months with my 2cents during weather events. On my fourth time deployed to Afghanistan, and still the weather here is even harder to forecast here even with our higher res models we have here. We will be variable and 6 knots, then all of a sudden we see a burst of 35 knots of winds coming right off the moutain (a.k.a mountain breeze) and drops the vis down. Totatlly shooting up my weather forecasts, you would think after 18 months of forecasting expierence in this region, I would have at least a little grasp of the weather effects. SmartWxModel Creator ksstormhunter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I can only imagine the challenges in such complex terrain with basically no observational data. I know there has been quite a bit of research into developing rapid update cycling models out there that attempt to take in the few obs available...and then run a high resolution model. Even then such complex terrain often shames the best hi-res models. Such non-linearity and microscale processes make terrain forecasting a humbling experience. What do you guys use for global guidance? Do you have any access to ECMWF data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Yea, we use an Ensemble models, to include GFS and WRF that does both 5KM and 1.67KM resolution type models. They do help us alot out here, but like you said the terrain is one of the killers for models, tough to take terrrain effects. The Himalaya Moutians play havoc for us here, guess 20K plus foot moutains tend to do that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 When a forecast bust, Does the Taliban get all mad and post on FB about it? 1. Thanks for your service. 2. Cool thread-- very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 ksstormhunter...are you a contractor or active duty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I used to work at the wx hub at Shaw and the OEF region was always challenging to get the winds and vsby right with all the terrain...let alone p-types. The Asiatic high could bring strong winds over the mtns into "the bowl" region which the models had a hard time resolving. The dust model helped, but most times I noticed the forecasters lived and died by the GFS. Normally they died. Experience, pattern recog, and regime type forecasting are worth more than model output over there, esp considering the sparse upper and sfc ob network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 I am active duty. Isohume, I agree, only expierence will be able to help you out here, models well they try at least to give us something to focus are thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Well, there are some observing surface stations, more than I thought. 06Z Observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 06Z MSLP, Streamlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I am active duty. Isohume, I agree, only expierence will be able to help you out here, models well they try at least to give us something to focus are thought process. Yeah I was a reservist at Shaw, now I'm at Langley. Shaw really did have a unique challenge in remotely fcsting for basically the entire middle east and parts of wrn asia. We counted a lot on you guys in the field for ammendments, warnings and local mesocale knowledge, etc. I believe Shaw doesn't fcst for OIF anymore...but I think they picked up PI. I know what you mean about the wind gusts. It took me a while to get used to high desert soundings and trusting momentum transfers all the way from h6+ on a normal basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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