Marion_NC_WX Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Nearly 4 inches of rain here since Monday morning...I do wish though I can catch a break between 6 and 9 pm this evening as I am covering High School Softball (State Playoffs) in Alexander County. Don't wanna make a trip that far for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like most of the severe stuff will be south of the Triangle like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yesterday was a classic example of what happens when a lee trough is stalled east of the Apps. Today it looks like its shifted just a little more south but still overall a distinct lee trough, so probably nearly the same results occur again by afternoon to evening. Usually this is how the piedmont (esp in NC) gets their flash flooding. Cells grow and grow until they merge and what's left is a huge mass of heavy rain over multiple counties that rains til well after dark, sometimes til midnight. It's always really hard to pinpoint which areas get that though (usually its northwest north or central NC). Anyway, I see two major areas today for severe and heavy rains: coastal Carolinas down to north Florida, and 2) vicinity of lee trough from eastern Alabama through central north GA to much of Carolinas and south VA. GFS actually keeps bagginess or troughiness through almost 10 days, and re-exerts an upper low somewhere near the Gulf this Weekend, and might pull up truly tropical moisture next week for Florida . If theres's still a broad upper low in Alabama or Tenn Valley down to Gulf Coast by then, once again there could be a repeat of what yesterday and today brings. IE, more rain. The westerlies lift pretty far north, and thats a sign in May that something can gain cyclonic curvature in the Deep South. Currently there's atleast 2 weak upper lows, and in Spring, all you need is one weak upper low to get the daily storms going. This could turn out to be a very wet month in some areas, even areas that so far have missed it CAE AHN, it could really turn around in a 5H pattern like this, and the one shown by GFS for a while. Almost every thing is located nicely to have atleast normal rains (and honestly well above normal for most). Bermuda high, ridging to our north, weak upper low between Texas to Alabama. All ingredients that in the past have made us pretty wet. June 2005 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 WPDE reporting a tornado spotted in the warned area in Georgetown County, SC, just west of the Pee Dee River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking like CLT and eastern zones may be in the sweet spot this afternoon and tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Raining cats and dogs here right now; heavy thunder too. Typical spotty Florida summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Really surprised by the lack of people on the board lately. I know it's not a huge tornado outbreak, but at least there has been something to follow the last couple of days. Maybe folks were spoiled with all the tornado outbreaks last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Storms look more discrete from Columbia, SC to Greenville,SC. IMO, I think it will be easy to get some warnings west of Charlotte too. There's also activity breaking out over the mountains from north-east Georgia to south-west VA. Looks more linear there. I believe if we get some more sunshine to breakout over the foothills...then we are in for a repeat for the foothills and western Piedmont. Still looking soupy/cloudy here in Wilkes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Still waiting on any significant rain, though, got a 'trace" over night, watching the lightshow across the river, down towards Oak island.. sea breeze has fired up Inland, As I can hear thunder off in the distance... Warm SOUPY atmosphere, Lower 80's, Winds from the south around 15... hoping for RAIN, Today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Storms look more discrete from Columbia, SC to Greenville,SC. IMO,I think it will be easy to get some warnings west of Charlotte too. There's also activity breaking out over the mountains from north-east Georgia to south-west VA. Looks more linear there. I believe if we get some more sunshine to breakout over the foothills...then we are in for a repeat for the foothills and western Piedmont. Still looking soupy/cloudy here in Wilkes though. I am at work here in South Clt (Pineville), has been sunny here for a while and the temp is going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I see a thunderstorm watch has been issued for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Really surprised by the lack of people on the board lately. I know it's not a huge tornado outbreak, but at least there has been something to follow the last couple of days. Maybe folks were spoiled with all the tornado outbreaks last year. IMHO this place hasn't been the same because of the virtual non-winter we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC / WRN-CNTRL-NRN VA / PARTS OF MD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151808Z - 151915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCTD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 18-21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL RISK. DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS NEWD INTO WRN VA. THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ABATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY MOVES NEWD WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CENTERED FARTHER W OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP /6.5 DEG C PER KM --REF 12Z GSO RAOB/...FURTHER HEATING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S AND LEAD TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. AS SUCH...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF STRONGER DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND OTHER CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE 18-21Z PERIOD...CONCENTRATED INVOF THE MTNS OVER WRN NC NEWD INTO THE VA PIEDMONT. THE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER OF THESE STORMS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME LARGE HAIL RISK WILL DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS...BEFORE APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/LOSS OF HEATING TOWARDS EVENING LESSENS THIS RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 230 PM EDT Tue may 15 2012 The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278 in effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas In North Carolina this watch includes 6 counties In southeast North Carolina Bladen Brunswick Columbus New Hanover Pender Robeson In South Carolina this watch includes 8 counties In northeast South Carolina Darlington Dillon Florence Georgetown Horry Marion Marlboro Williamsburg This includes the cities of...Bennettsville...Burgaw...Conway... Darlington...Dillon...Elizabethtown...Florence...Georgetown... Kingstree...Leland...Lumberton...Marion...Myrtle Beach... Shallotte...Surf City...Whiteville... Wilmington and Wrightsville Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like I'm sandwiched in the middle of this and the current t-storm watch for eastern NC. Today is a day you don't want to see the sun. Just increases the chance for stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 315 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 New severe t-storm watch. Most of NC is under a watch now. 313 PM EDT Tue may 15 2012 The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following areas In North Carolina this watch includes 31 counties In central North Carolina Alamance Anson Chatham Cumberland Davidson Durham Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin Granville Guilford Halifax Harnett Hoke Johnston Lee Montgomery Moore Nash Orange person Randolph Richmond Sampson Scotland Stanly Vance wake Warren Wayne Wilson This includes the cities of...Albemarle...Asheboro...Burlington... Chapel HIll...Clinton...Durham...Fayetteville...Goldsboro... Greensboro...Henderson...High Point...Laurinburg...Lexington... Lillington...Louisburg...Nashville...Oxford...Pittsboro... Raeford...Raleigh...Roanoke Rapids...Rockingham...Rocky Mount... Roxboro...Sanford...Smithfield...Southern Pines...Troy... Wadesboro...Warrenton...Wilson and Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yesterday was a classic example of what happens when a lee trough is stalled east of the Apps. Today it looks like its shifted just a little more south but still overall a distinct lee trough, so probably nearly the same results occur again by afternoon to evening. Usually this is how the piedmont (esp in NC) gets their flash flooding. Cells grow and grow until they merge and what's left is a huge mass of heavy rain over multiple counties that rains til well after dark, sometimes til midnight. It's always really hard to pinpoint which areas get that though (usually its northwest north or central NC). Anyway, I see two major areas today for severe and heavy rains: coastal Carolinas down to north Florida, and 2) vicinity of lee trough from eastern Alabama through central north GA to much of Carolinas and south VA. GFS actually keeps bagginess or troughiness through almost 10 days, and re-exerts an upper low somewhere near the Gulf this Weekend, and might pull up truly tropical moisture next week for Florida . If theres's still a broad upper low in Alabama or Tenn Valley down to Gulf Coast by then, once again there could be a repeat of what yesterday and today brings. IE, more rain. The westerlies lift pretty far north, and thats a sign in May that something can gain cyclonic curvature in the Deep South. Currently there's atleast 2 weak upper lows, and in Spring, all you need is one weak upper low to get the daily storms going. This could turn out to be a very wet month in some areas, even areas that so far have missed it CAE AHN, it could really turn around in a 5H pattern like this, and the one shown by GFS for a while. Almost every thing is located nicely to have atleast normal rains (and honestly well above normal for most). Bermuda high, ridging to our north, weak upper low between Texas to Alabama. All ingredients that in the past have made us pretty wet. June 2005 comes to mind. CAE has picked up a much needed .40 for the past two days, *fingers crossed* another round finds it's way to mby Hopefully those same ingredients are in the right spot later this summer to steer a sweet tropical system this way to help with these negative departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Sunshine breaking out here now over most of the sky. Mountains are getting dark to my west. Very similar to yesterday but happening much sooner. Getting ready for flood #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Severe t-storm warning for Bladen and Robeson counties. Looks like a repeat of yesterday with the location of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Its been expanded again to include us here in Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. Currently 90/93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 444 PM EDT Tue may 15 2012 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina northwestern Wayne County in central North Carolina * until 530 PM EDT * at 441 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Grantham...or 11 miles south of Smithfield...moving north at 5 mph. Quarter sized hail and winds in excess of 58 mph are likely with this storm. * Locations impacted include... Smithfield...Pine Level... This includes Interstate 95 between exits 90 and 106. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Big storm coming over the mountain in Haywood County. This is the second storm we have had today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Today's cluster of storms kicked up enough lightning close by for me to unplug the computer for about 30 minutes, then they split up and went everywhere but here. Got the grill fired up instead of watching it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Saw a quick sprinkle. Barely wet the ground and it was clear outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 not much of anything around here. Looks like central SC has the best concentration, other than scattered single cells here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Big soakers blowing up out of nowhere to my sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 Bust here. Which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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