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Soaking Rains


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I've been watching heavy rain just to my west for several hours. On the move now and headed right at me. Just got a STW for high winds. I just had DirecTV put on my garage roof yesterday. I guess I'll find out if he attached it securely.

EDIT: While I was typing that quite a bow popped out with the first appearance of 60db. Shouod be interesting. Another 15 minutes I should be in the center.

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I've been watching heavy rain just to my west for several hours. On the move now and headed right at me. Just got a STW for high winds. I just had DirecTV put on my garage roof yesterday. I guess I'll find out if he attached it securely.

EDIT: While I was typing that quite a bow popped out with the first appearance of 60db. Shouod be interesting. Another 15 minutes I should be in the center.

update? :P

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

921 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0918 PM HAIL THOMASVILLE 35.89N 80.08W

05/14/2012 E0.88 INCH DAVIDSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR THOMASVILLE ON 109

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Good storm but a bit of a let down. It weakened some just before hitting me. About 50db was the peak. Some nice lightning but the winds definitely underperformed based on the warnings. Still moderate rain but it never got to the gully washer level.

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Big storms hitting Haywood and Buncombe county right now. Very heavy rain and some pea size hail with lots of cloud to ground lightning. Some high wind also.

Was in Asheville at work when these storms came rolling thru. It was pretty intense for a good hour. Alas Weaverville was mostly missed & we ended up with .7" for the storms.

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As I mentioned yesterday, the Carolinas, Va and Ga aren't done. There will probably be some re-development this afternoon somewhere in the best low level moisture and instability axis from East Tn down to GA and especially in the central Carolinas. The cyclonic flow aloft and trough axis holding back west should help anything that forms to push almost due north in NC to VA. Hopefully areas that yet haven't had anything major can get in on the second round later today.

Just got in from a busy day. What a wild weather day around here again this afternoon. Driving from upper part to lower part of the county was a disaster with wrecks and more super heavy rain...had to pull over a one point in the afternoon round. I haven't seen this much water in all this county overall since Christmas storm of 2009, we just usually don't get major repeating rains like this. 3 distinct major rounds of storms at my place. Total 3.14". Some places had 5". We need one of these per week for a while (my area could use it).

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Radar estimates of 13.7 inches of rain about 5 miles south of Vidalia, GA . Vidalia itself only saw about half an inch. Looks to have fallen mainly over rural areas. That's still an insane amount. Then 3 counties south, a record shattering 0.00 fell over Waycross,Ga. They are also seeing a lightning show to the Northwest.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

1203 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCC019-047-SCC051-150430-

/O.CON.KILM.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120515T0430Z/

COLUMBUS NC-HORRY SC-BRUNSWICK NC-

1203 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN BRUNSWICK...EAST CENTRAL HORRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL

COLUMBUS COUNTIES...

AT 1201 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BROOKSVILLE...OR 5

MILES NORTHWEST OF LITTLE RIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CALABASH...

DULAH...SEASIDE...IREDELL...PIREWAY AND SUNSET BEACH.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1239 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE

CAROLINAS...

...ERN SEABOARD/SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN STATES TODAY WITH

A BROAD WARM SECTOR LOCATED FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES NEWD

INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST

TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE

EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE GREATEST

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM NCNTRL NC SWWD INTO ERN GA WHERE MLCAPE

VALUES SHOULD REACH THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN

ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IN COLUMBIA SC

AND RALEIGH NC SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT

ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN ORGANIZE AND PERSIST DURING

THE LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN

AREAS WHERE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY. HAVE ADDED A

SLIGHT RISK ACROSS CNTRL NC AND SC WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

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Screwed again. In fact, if one looks at the estimated precip totals, I got some of the least amounts there were north of i-20. :axe:

I've lost count on how many "big rain events" that were predicted that have not panned out here. I got a whopping 0.25 while probably 80% of the state got 0.60 or better while at least half or better got more than an inch. Never mind what has happened in the carolinas.

This is really starting to get under my skin.

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Long time lurker who finally has something exciting to post. 5.40" of rain from both Sunday and Monday. Almost 3" from last nights thunderstorms. Creek in the backyard turned into a raging river. Gutters looked like waterfalls from the volume of water.

Welcome to the board! Great crew in the SE as you probably know. Maybe you should change your name to TripleCreek with all that rain. ;)

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GSP has issued a pretty broad Flash Flood Watch for today.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1100 AM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SOUTH

CAROLINA UPSTATE. A WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SRN

APPALACHIANS SHOULD ACTIVATE THIS AFTN AS A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES

ACROSS THE REGION. OUR WORKSTATION WRF-ARW SHOWS GOOD COVERAGE OVER

THE CENTRAL AND NRN NC MTNS WHICH THEN PUSHES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND

EVENTUALLY THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS SAME AREA HAS SEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME CASES OVER

THE PAST THREE DAYS. I DON/T SEE THIS BEING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN

EVENT...BUT I CAN SEE MULTIPLE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE STORMS

DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE GREATER SEVERE

CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH DRY MID LEVELS. ALL OF THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED

IN THE HWO.

http://forecast.weat...ash Flood Watch

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SPC Day 1 Outlook update has slight area much larger into VA, SC, border of GA.

CeZPD.gif

SPC AC 151619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC

STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS

VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SC/NC/VA/MD...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF

THE NATION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD

ACROSS EAST TN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED-BROKEN CLOUDS

THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS WHERE POCKETS OF

HEATING WILL HELP YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS

ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH TODAY /MID 60S TO NEAR 70F/. THE RESULT WILL BE

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE OF

1000-2000 J/KG/. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS

REGION...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW

ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER

STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

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Long time lurker who finally has something exciting to post. 5.40" of rain from both Sunday and Monday. Almost 3" from last nights thunderstorms. Creek in the backyard turned into a raging river. Gutters looked like waterfalls from the volume of water.

A few miles makes a big difference. I got just under one half inch from those storms last night. They stalled quite a long time over you but were on the move and weakening as they passed over me. Storm total here is 1.17 since things started Sunday evening.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...SRN NC...NERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151707Z - 151900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE

NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF TOWERING CU OVER W CNTRL

SC NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AS WELL AS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC

NEAR THE SEA BREEZE. WITH STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE

MOISTURE...VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP. WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK IN

THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT WILL INCREASE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS

AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. TALL STORMS CAPABLE OF

1.00 - 1.75 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND SOME STRONG TO

SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH DOWNBURSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ORGANIZED WIND

THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED ON THE LARGE SCALE.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/15/2012

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