WilkesboroDude Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg Virginia 955 am EDT Sat may 12 2012 Will be looking at a wet start to the upcoming week as a slow moving storm system pushes across the eastern United States. Shower activity will make its way into the mountains on Sunday morning as a deep low pressure system lifts north through central Tennessee and Kentucky...riding along a slow moving cold front stretching from northern New England through the Gulf Coast. Shower activity will spread east through the afternoon...with a few showers developing into thunderstorms by early evening. Will have to keep an eye out for the possibility of flash flooding on Sunday night...mainly across the mountains. Weather forecast models are in decent agreement of one disturbance possibly bringing heavy rain to southeast West Virginia and the mountain Empire Sunday evening... while a stronger disturbance will enter the North Carolina mountains and bring heavy rain west of the Blue Ridge by sunrise Monday morning. Periods of heavy rain will continue on Monday as the cold front moves slowly east across our area. With east to southeasterly winds expected ahead of the cold front...will be concerned with strong upslope flow along the Blue Ridge...which will likely result in locally high rainfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range across parts of the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 It's looking more and more like the escarpment in Western North Carolina could receive some healthy rainfall totals from Sunday night to Monday evening. Places like Lake Toxaway in Transylvania County wouldn't be a shock at all from some 4-6 inch totals. And along a line from Lake Lure to Linville Falls, easily 3 or more inches possible in spots. Models have been very persistent in a meso-low type feature over Upstate SC that would really focus the rains along the Southeast slopes in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Ya this is going to be great for water tables all along the SE. Even hear were we have no shortage of water it is very nice to see the rain coming in buckets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Special Statement Statement as of 9:26 PM EDT on May 12, 2012 ... Heavy rainfall expected late Sunday through Monday... A slow moving upper-level trough of low pressure will track from the mid-south overnight across the southeast Sunday and into the mid-Atlantic region by Monday. Abundant Gulf moisture will be drawn northward into our region late Sunday through Monday as this occurs. Light rain will begin to spread into southwest Virginia... northwest North Carolina... and southwest Virginia late tonight or early Sunday... then steadily progress northeastward during the day. Intensity of the rainfall will also increase as the day progresses... with moderate to heavy rainfall overspreading the area by evening and overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Rainfall in excess of 2.0 inches is expected across northwest North Carolina... with 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rainfall elsewhere. The ground across the region is saturated from recent heavy rainfall and prolonged cool weather. During the mid-part of this past week... flash flooding was observed in the northwest North Carolina counties of Surry and Stokes from persistent thunderstorms. These areas will simply not be able to absorb much additional heavy rainfall without flooding and/or flash flooding occurring. Rainfall of just two inches in one hour or less than three inches in three hours will be sufficient to produce flash flooding in Surry and neighboring counties. Locally... it may even take less rainfall to result in flash flooding. Slightly more rainfall will be needed to produce flash flooding elsewhere where less rainfall has fallen recently. Rainfall through early Monday should generally be in the form of a continuous light to moderate rainfall. However... Monday afternoon as the area moves into the back side of this weather system and receives more heating and hence instability... thunderstorms with localized heavy rain may develop. This could result in more serious flash flood issues should this occur. Forecasters will be monitoring the situation closely and a Flash Flood Watch may be required for parts of the forecast area... particularly northwest North Carolina for late Sunday through early Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch may be issued for parts or all of the forecast area during this time frame... especially northwest North Carolina. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio for the latest information... forecasts... and warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I'm not feeling it here in Marietta. I think we will get a good dousing but not as much as what some are calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Well they think we are going to get dumped on. Here is a statement that has came out. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Only 20-30% chances of rain tmwr-Wed. Hope some of you get some much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I'm not feeling it here in Marietta. I think we will get a good dousing but not as much as what some are calling for. I'm pretty confident we are in for a solid rainfall over the next couple of days. I'll take a stab at a total and guess 1.67" by Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Alabama is getting soaked nicely tonight. Heading for Ga (unless there is some robbery from the line of convection to the FL panhandle). So far it hasn't interrupted too badly. If it holds together, Atlanta could get a solid 1" to 2" from this batch alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I am loving this crisp mid May weather. Now, for some soaking rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I am loving this crisp mid May weather. Now, for some soaking rain.... Bring it. I mowed today so it won't get ahead of me if we have several wet days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Alabama is getting soaked nicely tonight. Heading for Ga (unless there is some robbery from the line of convection to the FL panhandle). So far it hasn't interrupted too badly. If it holds together, Atlanta could get a solid 1" to 2" from this batch alone. Lookin' good! Thanks for the update Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Alabama is getting soaked nicely tonight. Heading for Ga (unless there is some robbery from the line of convection to the FL panhandle). So far it hasn't interrupted too badly. If it holds together, Atlanta could get a solid 1" to 2" from this batch alone. I got .15 this morning, before noon, then it started again 8ish, this evening, and has been steady all night. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Steady rain all night. Beautiful morning! 60 degrees and steady rain. .97" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Flash Flood Watch Statement as of 4:14 AM EDT on May 13, 2012 ... Flash Flood Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday evening... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of North Carolina and Virginia... including the following areas... in North Carolina... Alleghany NC... Ashe... Stokes... Surry... Watauga... Wilkes and Yadkin. In Virginia... Carroll... Floyd... Franklin... Grayson... Henry... Montgomery... Patrick... Pulaski... Roanoke... Smyth and Wythe. * From this evening through Tuesday evening * 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected by late Tuesday with locally high amounts possible along and just east of the Blue Ridge. * Small streams and creeks may rise above bankfull with this amount of rain. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 It looks like the 3-5" hyped up by some media outlets is not going to happen. I'm at about .75" right now with the back edge approaching. We shall see how much extra gets dropped before the system moves on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I've had .75 as of noon. Not great, but so much better than the nada I've been getting used to That's 1.7 for the last week, or so, after .4 for the last month, or so. Vast improvement!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Anyone outdoors preparing for the flood? Rain just started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Already just over a half inch here southeast of Columbia, SC. Hope everyone gets a good soaking over the next few days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 1.52" IMBY here in Dahlonega. Nice soaking rain which is much needed. Looks like a lot more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 1.92 here so far, and its pouring again. hope it keeps coming for a while is also pretty chilly - 58 outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 the radar looks very spotty over the whole SE. There's not a real organized area of precip anywhere presently. Nothing here so far. EDIT: And with that comment it immediatly begins to rain lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 the radar looks very spotty over the whole SE. There's not a real organized area of precip anywhere presently. Nothing here so far. EDIT: And with that comment it immediatly begins to rain lightly. I've had showers off and on all day with just enough time in between to get something down outside. These showers seem to be finding me, for a change...with another coming in before too long, radar says. Good luck up there! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I've had showers off and on all day with just enough time in between to get something down outside. These showers seem to be finding me, for a change...with another coming in before too long, radar says. Good luck up there! T Finally!!!! We've been under a pretty steady light rain since about 2:00AM with only a few breaks here and there. This is the first normal steady rainfall we've had since early February I'd say. Everything should green up nice after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 It's raining here now lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Picked up 0.64" today. Been light rain all day. Perfect rates for a nice soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Already just over a half inch here southeast of Columbia, SC. Hope everyone gets a good soaking over the next few days! Glad you are getting some much needed rain I've got about .20 here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I read my gauge wrong this morning. I ended up with 1.86" for the storm total, 3.92" for the month to date and 14.79 for the year to date. Actually not too bad and much better than I had originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 nice light to spotty moderate rains here today, lately I can hear the heavier elements when they pass. This has been an interesting system so far, and it's still sort of 'murky' as to how the week will progress. The GFS looks like it keeps daily showers from Ga through Carolinas to Virginia most of the week, probably more diurnally driven as time goes on, the weakness aloft will be weak, but any peeks of sun could set off some rain or storms. Similar to what happened to Alabama today. As vorts moved overhead and worked on openings the instability was increased and some lines were able to organize a little, even some severe in several counties at different times. Good to see atleast numerous showers over a lot of the Southeast, but I'm a little doubtful of any real flooding even in the mountains, but a few flash flood warnings for a county here and there is probable (like in Tn and GA today). Hopefully we keep a weakness somewhere in our vicinity the bulk of this month (it would help make my May forecast verify atleast). Atleast there's no real signs of a major closed ridge aloft showing up yet, and the last few years we had those even in May. The tropics could get active but its too far out to speculate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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